Is APLD a Buy? What to Consider in 2026
Short answer
The bull case for Applied Digital (APLD) rests on Anchor CoreWeave leases create long-dated contracted revenue: Applied Digital signed initial roughly 15-year leases with CoreWeave in 2025, and CoreWeave later exercised options to expand to the full 400MW at the Polaris Forge 1 campus in Ellendale, North Dakota. Revenue (trailing 12 months) is ~$319 million. If you believe that thesis holds, the real questions become position sizing and overlap, not timing. The main risk to that view: The model is extraordinarily capital-intensive: building gigawatt-scale capacity requires continuous debt and equity financing, and Applied Digital has carried billions in debt while pricing large senior secured note offerings to fund expansion, which raises interest costs and dilution or leverage risk. Whether APLD is a buy comes down to whether you believe the thesis. This is informational, not a recommendation, and Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates data centers for artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and related workloads. It makes money primarily by leasing critical IT capacity (measured in megawatts of power) to compute customers under long-term contracts, plus a legacy data-center hosting segment. The economics resemble those of a specialized real-estate or infrastructure landlord: the company spends heavily up front to secure power, land, and buildings, then earns recurring rent over multi-year lease terms. Its flagship Polaris Forge 1 campus in Ellendale, North Dakota is engineered to scale up to roughly a gigawatt over time, with a second campus broken ground more recently. The company began as a Bitcoin and crypto hosting operator before pivoting toward AI and HPC infrastructure as that demand surged. A defining step came in 2025, when its board approved selling the Cloud Services Business (which had supplied GPU cloud compute directly) because that segment was viewed as competing with the very data-center customers Applied Digital wanted to attract, and because focusing on a leasing or REIT-style model better fit its long-term direction. Around the same time it signed initial roughly 15-year leases with CoreWeave that, together with later expansions, lifted anticipated contracted lease revenue into the billions and then tens of billions of dollars as additional campuses were added.
What's the case for buying APLD?
Anchor CoreWeave leases create long-dated contracted revenue
Applied Digital signed initial roughly 15-year leases with CoreWeave in 2025, and CoreWeave later exercised options to expand to the full 400MW at the Polaris Forge 1 campus in Ellendale, North Dakota. Management has pointed to contracted lease revenue figures that grew from roughly $7 billion to about $11 billion and, with newer campus agreements, a backlog cited in the tens of billions. These are long-duration contracts that, if performed, provide visibility uncommon for a company this size.
Power and site pipeline in a supportive jurisdiction
Data-center value increasingly comes down to securing large blocks of power. North Dakota has passed supportive digital-asset and data-center legislation, giving Applied Digital a relatively stable, low-litigation base for gigawatt-scale builds. The Polaris Forge 1 site is engineered to scale toward roughly 1GW, and the company has broken ground on a second campus, giving it a development pipeline to lease against rising AI compute demand.
AI and HPC compute demand tailwind
The bull case rests on AI training and inference demand outstripping the supply of ready power and purpose-built data-center space. Applied Digital positions itself as a developer that can deliver high-density, liquid-cooled capacity faster than many incumbents. Revenue has grown sharply, with a recent fiscal quarter showing roughly $127 million, up about 139% year over year, reflecting capacity coming online.
Sharpened focus after exiting cloud compute
By moving to sell its Cloud Services Business in 2025, Applied Digital removed a segment that data-center prospects viewed as a competitor and concentrated the company on the leasing or landlord model. This focus is intended to make it a cleaner counterparty for hyperscale-style tenants and aligns the business with a REIT-style structure that management has discussed as a longer-term direction.
What are the risks to APLD?
The model is extraordinarily capital-intensive: building gigawatt-scale capacity requires continuous debt and equity financing, and Applied Digital has carried billions in debt while pricing large senior secured note offerings to fund expansion, which raises interest costs and dilution or leverage risk. Revenue is heavily concentrated on CoreWeave, so any change in that tenant's health, demand, or willingness to expand would matter disproportionately. Execution risk is real because leases only pay once buildings are energized and operational, and delays in power, construction, or supply chains push out cash flows. The company has reported sizable net losses, and the shares have been highly volatile, swinging on lease announcements, financing news, and broader AI-sector sentiment.
How is APLD valued? (as of 2026-06-27)
- Revenue (trailing 12 months): ~$319 million
- Most recent quarter revenue: ~$127 million (up ~139% year over year)
- Net loss (most recent quarter, to common): ~$101 million (~$0.36 per share)
- Contracted lease backlog: Reported in the tens of billions; CoreWeave expanded to full 400MW at Polaris Forge 1
- Total debt: ~$2.7 billion (with ~$2.1 billion cash) as of fiscal Q3 2026
- Market capitalization: Roughly $11 billion range (varies with a volatile share price)
Applied Digital is still reporting net losses while it builds capacity, so traditional earnings multiples do not apply cleanly and much of the story sits in the contracted backlog rather than current profit. Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date; revenue, losses, debt, and market cap move with each financing, lease, and earnings update. Investors generally weigh the long-dated lease backlog against the heavy ongoing capex and financing needed to deliver it.
How do you decide if APLD is a buy?
Rather than asking whether APLD is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:
- Thesis: do you believe the case above, and is it still true today?
- Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
- Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
- Overlap: check whether you already hold APLD indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.
For the full picture, see the APLD stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about APLD against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.
The bottom line on APLD
The bottom line: Applied Digital's story right now is Anchor CoreWeave leases create long-dated contracted revenue, with revenue (trailing 12 months) at ~$319 million. If you believe that narrative continues, the call is about sizing APLD sensibly and checking overlap with what you own; if you doubt it (the risk: the model is extraordinarily capital-intensive: building gigawatt-scale capacity requires continuous debt and equity financing, and Applied Digital has carried billions in debt while pricing large senior secured note offerings to fund expansion, which raises interest costs and dilution or leverage risk.), it is not for you. Decide from the thesis, not the ticker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
Is APLD a good stock to buy right now?
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The case for Applied Digital right now is Anchor CoreWeave leases create long-dated contracted revenue, with revenue (trailing 12 months) at ~$319 million. If you believe that thesis holds, APLD is a way to own it and the real questions are sizing and overlap, not timing; the main risk to that view is the model is extraordinarily capital-intensive: building gigawatt-scale capacity requires continuous debt and equity financing, and Applied Digital has carried billions in debt while pricing large senior secured note offerings to fund expansion, which raises interest costs and dilution or leverage risk. So it comes down to whether you believe the thesis. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.
What does Applied Digital do?
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Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates data centers for artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and related workloads.
What are the main risks of APLD?
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The model is extraordinarily capital-intensive: building gigawatt-scale capacity requires continuous debt and equity financing, and Applied Digital has carried billions in debt while pricing large senior secured note offerings to fund expansion, which raises interest costs and dilution or leverage risk. Revenue is heavily concentrated on CoreWeave, so any change in that tenant's health, demand, or willingness to expand would matter disproportionately. Execution risk is real because leases only pay once buildings are energized and operational, and delays in power, construction, or supply chains push out cash flows. The company has reported sizable net losses, and the shares have been highly volatile, swinging on lease announcements, financing news, and broader AI-sector sentiment.
Is APLD a good stock to buy right now?
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That depends on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, and this is not investment advice. The bull case is a large, long-dated CoreWeave lease backlog and a gigawatt-scale power pipeline riding AI demand. The bear case is heavy capex and debt, concentration on one customer, ongoing net losses, and a very volatile share price. Both can be true at once.
What does Applied Digital do?
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Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates data centers for artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and related workloads. It earns money mainly by leasing critical IT capacity, measured in megawatts of power, to compute customers under long-term contracts. Its flagship campuses are in Ellendale, North Dakota, anchored by lease agreements with CoreWeave.
Is APLD profitable?
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Not on a net-income basis as of the latest reports. Applied Digital has posted sizable net losses, including roughly $101 million attributable to common stockholders in a recent quarter, as it spends heavily to build capacity. It has cited positive adjusted EBITDA, but reported earnings remain negative while the buildout continues. Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date.
Does APLD pay a dividend?
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No. Applied Digital does not pay a common-stock dividend. It is a growth-and-buildout company reinvesting cash and raising debt and equity to fund data-center construction. If it eventually adopts a REIT structure, dividend policy could change, but as of the asOf date there is no common dividend to expect.
Walnut is informational and is not an investment adviser. This page is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell APLD; figures are approximate and dated, and your own situation, time horizon, and risk tolerance should drive any decision. Verify current data before investing.