Is ASML a Buy? What to Consider in 2026

Last updated June 2026

Short answer

There is no universal answer to whether ASML is a buy; it depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own. Below is the case for ASML Holding, the main risks to weigh, where the stock trades, and a framework to decide for yourself. This is informational, not a recommendation, and Walnut is not an investment adviser.

ASML Holding designs and manufactures lithography machines, the equipment semiconductor fabs use to print circuit patterns onto silicon wafers. The company is a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, the technology required to make leading-edge chips below the 7nm node. There is no other company in the world that produces EUV systems, which means every advanced chip manufacturer (TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix) is an ASML customer. ASML also produces older deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems that are still used for trailing-edge nodes, plus metrology and inspection equipment. Founded in 1984 as a Philips spinoff, headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands. Christophe Fouquet has been CEO since 2024. Each EUV machine sells for over $200 million; the next-generation High-NA EUV systems sell for around $400 million.

The case for ASML Holding

1. High-NA EUV ramp.

The next-generation High-NA EUV systems (NXE:5000 series) are now shipping in volume to Intel, TSMC, and Samsung for the 2nm and 1.6nm process nodes. Each tool sells for roughly $400 million. The ramp is the largest single revenue driver for ASML through the late 2020s.

2. AI infrastructure pulling demand forward.

AI accelerator and HBM memory demand have pulled semiconductor capex forward. Every leading-edge fab expansion (TSMC Arizona, Intel Ohio, Samsung Texas) requires more ASML lithography systems. Order book visibility extends through 2027.

3. Geopolitical positioning.

Export restrictions on advanced ASML systems to China have shifted demand to non-China customers and made the company a strategic asset to the Western chip supply chain. China continues to buy older DUV systems (about 30-40% of revenue), but the relationship is sensitive to policy shifts.

4. The eventual cyclical correction.

Semiconductor capex is cyclical. After the current AI-driven peak, there will eventually be a downcycle. ASML's revenue trough during past corrections was about 30-40% below peak, though the EUV monopoly cushions worst-case scenarios.

The risks to weigh

Geopolitical export restrictions could expand and cut more China revenue. The semiconductor capex cycle eventually turns down; even an EUV monopoly can't escape the broader cycle.

Valuation context (as of early 2026)

Revenue (TTM): ~€30 billion (~$33 billion USD)
Operating margin: ~33%
Net income (TTM): ~€8 billion
EPS (TTM): ~€20
P/E (TTM): ~32x
Price to sales: ~10x
Dividend yield: ~1.0%
Free cash flow: ~€8 billion annually
EUV order backlog: Multi-year visibility through 2027+

ASML's premium valuation reflects its EUV monopoly position. No competitor can ship EUV systems, and the technical lead is essentially insurmountable in the next 5-10 years. The premium compresses if semiconductor capex cycles down materially.

How to decide for yourself

Rather than asking whether ASML is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:

Thesis: do you believe the case above, and is it still true today?
Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
Overlap: check whether you already hold ASML indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.

For the full picture, see the ASML stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about ASML against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.

Build a basket around ASML with Walnut

Use ASML Holding as one constituent in a thematic basket Walnut's AI helps you assemble. Describe a thesis you believe in, the AI proposes the holdings and weights, and you approve before any broker order.

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FAQ

Is ASML a good stock to buy right now?

There is no universal answer. Whether ASML Holding fits depends on your thesis, time horizon, risk tolerance, and what you already own. This page lays out the case for, the main risks, and where the stock trades, so you can decide for yourself. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

What does ASML Holding do?

Monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography. Every leading-edge AI chip is patterned on an ASML machine.

What are the main risks of ASML?

Geopolitical export restrictions could expand and cut more China revenue. The semiconductor capex cycle eventually turns down; even an EUV monopoly can't escape the broader cycle.

What is ASML's ticker symbol?

ASML, listed on Nasdaq in the US. It also trades on Euronext Amsterdam under the same ticker. Officially ASML Holding N.V. Headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands. Trades during US market hours on Nasdaq.

Who are ASML's competitors?

In EUV lithography, none. ASML is the only company that produces EUV systems; the technical lead is essentially insurmountable in the next 5-10 years. Nikon and Canon still produce older DUV systems and compete only at trailing-edge nodes. Applied Materials, Lam Research, KLA, and Tokyo Electron make complementary fab equipment but don't compete in lithography.

Why is ASML so important?

Every leading-edge semiconductor chip in the world (Apple A-series, NVIDIA H100/Blackwell, AMD MI300, AMD MI400) requires EUV lithography to manufacture. ASML is the sole supplier of those systems. There is no advanced chip industry without ASML, which makes it a strategic asset for every government in the chip supply chain.

What is ASML's P/E ratio?

Approximately 32x trailing twelve months as of early 2026. The premium versus the S&P 500 average (~22x) reflects the EUV monopoly position and the multi-year order book visibility. The valuation compresses if semiconductor capex enters a downcycle.

Walnut is informational and is not an investment adviser. This page is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell ASML; figures are approximate and dated, and your own situation, time horizon, and risk tolerance should drive any decision. Verify current data before investing.