Is SPG a Buy? What to Consider in 2026
Short answer
The bull case for Simon Property Group (SPG) rests on Premium Portfolio with Near-Full Occupancy: US malls and Premium Outlets ran at approximately 96.0% occupancy as of Q1 2026, up slightly from 95.9% a year earlier, with The Mills properties at 98.4%. Revenue (TTM) is ~$6.65 billion. If you believe that thesis holds, the real questions become position sizing and overlap, not timing. The main risk to that view: The most significant structural risk is continued e-commerce penetration that gradually reduces the number of viable retail tenants and pressures occupancy and rents even at premium properties. Whether SPG is a buy comes down to whether you believe the thesis. This is informational, not a recommendation, and Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Simon Property Group is an Indianapolis-based real estate investment trust (REIT) and an S&P 100 constituent. It owns, develops, and manages premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations across North America, Europe, and Asia. As of December 31, 2025, the company held interests in 212 US income-producing properties and 42 international properties, along with a 22.2% stake in Klépierre, a Paris-based retail real estate company. SPG makes money primarily by leasing space to retail, dining, and entertainment tenants at its malls and Premium Outlets, collecting base rent plus a share of tenant sales. With a gross margin near 86% and domestic mall and outlet occupancy of approximately 96%, the business model benefits from scale: SPG's size gives it access to lower-cost capital, stronger lease negotiation leverage with global retail chains, and the financial capacity to fund redevelopments that smaller operators cannot. The company traces its roots to Melvin Simon and Associates, a family-owned Indianapolis real estate firm founded by Melvin Simon and his brother Herbert Simon. David Simon, Melvin's son, joined as CFO in 1990, orchestrated the company's landmark 1993 NYSE IPO (then the largest real estate public offering in history), and became CEO in 1995 at the age of 33. Over three decades he transformed it into the largest retail REIT in the world through a series of acquisitions, including DeBartolo Realty, Chelsea Property Group, the Mills Corporation, and Taubman Centers. David Simon passed away on March 22, 2026, after a battle with cancer. The board immediately appointed his son, Eli Simon, as CEO and President. Eli Simon, who joined the company in 2019 and had been serving as COO, previously led investment strategy at Och-Ziff Capital Management. Larry Glasscock, a board member since 2010, was appointed non-executive chairman.
What's the case for buying SPG?
Premium Portfolio with Near-Full Occupancy
US malls and Premium Outlets ran at approximately 96.0% occupancy as of Q1 2026, up slightly from 95.9% a year earlier, with The Mills properties at 98.4%. Limited new supply of Class A retail space gives SPG pricing power: average base minimum rent per square foot continues to inch higher, and retailers are reportedly renewing leases as much as three years before expiration, signaling strong demand for the company's best locations.
Consistent NOI and FFO Growth
Portfolio net operating income grew 4.7% in full-year 2025 and accelerated to 6.7% in Q1 2026. Management raised its full-year 2026 Real Estate FFO per share guidance to $13.10 to $13.25, up from the original $13.00 to $13.25 range, reflecting confidence in ongoing rent growth and leasing velocity. The company has now guided for or delivered Real Estate FFO growth for multiple consecutive years.
Mixed-Use Redevelopment Pipeline
SPG has a roughly $4 billion active redevelopment pipeline that repurposes former anchor department store space into entertainment venues, residential units, hotels, and experiential dining. This strategy extends property relevance, drives incremental NOI from underutilized square footage, and positions flagship properties as community destinations rather than pure retail centers, partially offsetting long-term department store headwinds.
Capital Return Program and A-Rated Balance Sheet
The company's A-rated balance sheet carries approximately $9.1 billion in liquidity and a $2 billion common stock repurchase program authorized through early 2028. SPG paid $8.55 per share in dividends in 2025 (a 5.6% year-over-year increase) and raised its quarterly dividend again in 2026 to $2.25 per share, yielding roughly 4.4% at recent prices. Six consecutive years of dividend growth underscore management's confidence in cash flow durability.
What are the risks to SPG?
The most significant structural risk is continued e-commerce penetration that gradually reduces the number of viable retail tenants and pressures occupancy and rents even at premium properties. SPG carries roughly $29 billion in debt, making it sensitive to sustained high interest rates that raise refinancing costs and compress the spread between cap rates and borrowing costs, a core driver of REIT value. A recession that weakens consumer spending could trigger tenant distress, store closures, and occupancy declines across the portfolio. Finally, the transition to new CEO Eli Simon following his father's death in March 2026 introduces near-term uncertainty around strategic continuity, capital allocation priorities, and operator relationships that had been built over three decades.
How is SPG valued? (as of 2026-06-27)
- Revenue (TTM): ~$6.65 billion
- Real Estate FFO (FY 2025): ~$12.73 per diluted share
- 2026 Real Estate FFO Guidance: $13.10 to $13.25 per diluted share
- Trailing P/E (GAAP): ~14x (based on elevated 2025 GAAP earnings)
- Annual Dividend Per Share: ~$9.00 (yield ~4.4% at recent prices)
- Debt / Equity: ~4.6x; net debt ~$28.5 billion
Because SPG is a REIT, Funds from Operations (FFO) is the industry-standard profitability metric rather than GAAP net income, which is inflated by depreciation add-backs and one-time gains. The trailing GAAP P/E of roughly 14x looks inexpensive relative to the company's 10-year average of about 22x, but the more meaningful forward price-to-Real Estate FFO multiple is in the low-to-mid teens, broadly in line with high-quality retail REIT peers. The company's ~$29 billion debt load is large in absolute terms but is supported by an A-rated credit profile, a $5 billion revolving credit facility, and stable NOI coverage.
How do you decide if SPG is a buy?
Rather than asking whether SPG is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:
- Thesis: do you believe the case above, and is it still true today?
- Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
- Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
- Overlap: check whether you already hold SPG indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.
For the full picture, see the SPG stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about SPG against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.
The bottom line on SPG
The bottom line: Simon Property Group's story right now is Premium Portfolio with Near-Full Occupancy, with revenue (ttm) at ~$6.65 billion. If you believe that narrative continues, the call is about sizing SPG sensibly and checking overlap with what you own; if you doubt it (the risk: the most significant structural risk is continued e-commerce penetration that gradually reduces the number of viable retail tenants and pressures occupancy and rents even at premium properties.), it is not for you. Decide from the thesis, not the ticker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Build a basket around SPG with Walnut
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FAQ
Is SPG a good stock to buy right now?
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The case for Simon Property Group right now is Premium Portfolio with Near-Full Occupancy, with revenue (ttm) at ~$6.65 billion. If you believe that thesis holds, SPG is a way to own it and the real questions are sizing and overlap, not timing; the main risk to that view is the most significant structural risk is continued e-commerce penetration that gradually reduces the number of viable retail tenants and pressures occupancy and rents even at premium properties. So it comes down to whether you believe the thesis. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.
What does Simon Property Group do?
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Simon Property Group is an Indianapolis-based real estate investment trust (REIT) and an S&P 100 constituent.
What are the main risks of SPG?
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The most significant structural risk is continued e-commerce penetration that gradually reduces the number of viable retail tenants and pressures occupancy and rents even at premium properties. SPG carries roughly $29 billion in debt, making it sensitive to sustained high interest rates that raise refinancing costs and compress the spread between cap rates and borrowing costs, a core driver of REIT value. A recession that weakens consumer spending could trigger tenant distress, store closures, and occupancy declines across the portfolio. Finally, the transition to new CEO Eli Simon following his father's death in March 2026 introduces near-term uncertainty around strategic continuity, capital allocation priorities, and operator relationships that had been built over three decades.
What does Simon Property Group do?
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Simon Property Group owns, develops, and manages premier shopping, dining, entertainment, and mixed-use destinations. Its portfolio includes regional malls, Simon Premium Outlets, and The Mills properties across the US, Europe, and Asia, totaling more than 250 properties and approximately 200 million square feet of gross leasable area. It makes money primarily through tenant leases.
Is SPG a good stock to buy right now?
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That depends on an investor's goals, time horizon, and portfolio context. SPG is the dominant Class A mall REIT with near-96% occupancy, consistent FFO growth, and a growing dividend. It also carries substantial debt, faces secular e-commerce headwinds, and is navigating a CEO transition. Whether those factors are appropriately priced in is something each investor should weigh against their own situation.
Does SPG pay a dividend?
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Yes. SPG pays a quarterly dividend. The most recent quarterly payout was $2.25 per share (June 2026), putting the annualized rate at roughly $9.00 per share and the yield at approximately 4.4% at recent prices near $202 to $204. SPG has grown its dividend for six consecutive years, with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 7%.
Who are Simon Property Group's main competitors?
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SPG's most direct US competitor in the Class A mall segment is Macerich (MAC). In the outlet space, Tanger Factory Outlet Centers (SKT) competes in a similar format. Kimco Realty (KIM) and Regency Centers (REG) compete in the broader retail REIT category. Internationally, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield and Klépierre (in which SPG holds a 22% stake) are key players.
Walnut is informational and is not an investment adviser. This page is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell SPG; figures are approximate and dated, and your own situation, time horizon, and risk tolerance should drive any decision. Verify current data before investing.