Is TMC a Buy? What to Consider in 2026
Short answer
The bull case for TMC the metals company (TMC) rests on Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource: TMC's pitch is the scale of its acreage. Revenue is $0 (pre-revenue; no product sales). If you believe that thesis holds, the real questions become position sizing and overlap, not timing. The main risk to that view: The dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Whether TMC is a buy comes down to whether you believe the thesis. This is informational, not a recommendation, and Walnut is not an investment adviser.
TMC the metals company (TMC), headquartered in Vancouver, Canada and listed on Nasdaq, is a deep-sea mining developer focused on polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean. These potato-sized nodules sit on the abyssal seafloor roughly 4 kilometers down and contain nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, four metals tied to batteries, electrification, and steel. TMC controls two exploration areas through its subsidiaries NORI (Nauru Ocean Resources Inc.) and TOML (Tonga Offshore Mining Ltd.), and it partners with engineering and refining firms rather than building the full supply chain itself. The company's plan is to recover nodules at sea, then process them on land into nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese products. It has declared what it describes as world-first probable nodule reserves at its NORI-D area, around 51 million wet tonnes, and points to a broader resource measured in the low billions of tonnes across its acreage. TMC went public in 2021 through a SPAC merger and has never generated product revenue; it remains a pre-revenue, development-stage company whose progress is measured in permits, partnerships, and engineering milestones rather than sales or profits.
What's the case for buying TMC?
1. Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource.
TMC's pitch is the scale of its acreage. The NORI-D area carries declared probable reserves of roughly 51 million wet tonnes grading about 1.4% nickel, 0.13% cobalt, 1.1% copper, and 31% manganese, and the company points to a much larger measured-and-indicated and inferred resource across its wider NORI and TOML areas, into the low billions of tonnes. The company has published its own economic studies citing a combined net present value in the low tens of billions of dollars, though those are company estimates that depend on metal prices, costs, and production assumptions that remain unproven at commercial scale.
2. The US permitting path.
Following a 2025 US executive order on seabed mineral resources, NOAA modernized its rules under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA), effective in January 2026. TMC's US subsidiary filed the first consolidated exploration license and commercial recovery permit application under that framework. NOAA found the application in substantial compliance in March 2026 and in full compliance in May 2026. This domestic path is the central catalyst behind the investment case, and it is also the source of the international controversy, because it operates outside the International Seabed Authority (ISA) framework.
3. Partners and capital.
TMC relies on partnerships rather than building everything itself. Allseas, an offshore engineering group, has agreed to fund a significant portion of pre-production costs and signed a commercial nodule recovery agreement targeting around 3.0 million wet tonnes per year, with commissioning targeted for late 2027. On the processing and capital side, Korea Zinc, a major non-ferrous metals refiner, made an equity investment of roughly $85 million in 2025 for about a 5% stake. PAMCO, Glencore's XPS, and Hatch have also been cited as parties that have worked with nodule-derived material.
4. Critical-minerals policy tailwind.
TMC frames itself as a potential domestic supply of metals that are currently concentrated in a small number of foreign producers and refiners. Western governments' interest in critical-mineral supply security, and US policy support for seabed minerals specifically, is the macro backdrop the company leans on. Whether that policy interest translates into permits, financing, and offtake at the scale TMC needs is unresolved.
What are the risks to TMC?
The dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Strong, organized environmental opposition argues that mining the Clarion-Clipperton Zone could cause lasting harm to poorly understood deep-sea ecosystems, which adds legal and reputational risk. The company is pre-revenue and burns cash each quarter, so it depends on continued financing and partner funding to reach production. The economics of recovering and processing nodules at commercial scale are unproven, and the whole thesis can move sharply on a single permitting, legal, or financing event.
How is TMC valued? (as of Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026); market cap as of late June 2026)
- Revenue: $0 (pre-revenue; no product sales)
- Net loss (Q1 2026): ~$20.6 million, EPS ~$(0.05)
- Cash: ~$119.7 million at March 31, 2026, with no financial debt
- Market cap: ~$1.9 billion (late June 2026; varies widely with the share price)
- NORI-D declared probable reserves: ~51 million wet tonnes, grading ~1.4% nickel, ~0.13% cobalt, ~1.1% copper, ~31% manganese
- Broader resource: Company cites a resource into the low billions of tonnes across NORI and TOML, and its own studies cite combined NPV in the low tens of billions (company estimates)
Standard valuation ratios do not apply: TMC has no revenue and posts a loss every quarter, so there is no P/E, no profit margin, and no dividend to anchor a price. The market value is effectively an option on a future outcome, driven by permitting decisions, financing news, partner milestones, and metal-price expectations rather than current cash flows. All figures are approximate, tied to the dates above, and move quickly; verify against TMC's investor relations page or your broker before relying on them.
How do you decide if TMC is a buy?
Rather than asking whether TMC is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:
- Thesis: do you believe the case above, and is it still true today?
- Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
- Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
- Overlap: check whether you already hold TMC indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.
For the full picture, see the TMC stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about TMC against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.
The bottom line on TMC
The bottom line: TMC the metals company's story right now is Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource, with revenue at $0 (pre-revenue; no product sales). If you believe that narrative continues, the call is about sizing TMC sensibly and checking overlap with what you own; if you doubt it (the risk: the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining.), it is not for you. Decide from the thesis, not the ticker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Build a basket around TMC with Walnut
Use TMC the metals company as one constituent in a thematic basket Walnut's AI helps you assemble. Describe a thesis you believe in, the AI proposes the holdings and weights, and you approve before any broker order.
FAQ
Is TMC a good stock to buy right now?
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The case for TMC the metals company right now is Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource, with revenue at $0 (pre-revenue; no product sales). If you believe that thesis holds, TMC is a way to own it and the real questions are sizing and overlap, not timing; the main risk to that view is the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. So it comes down to whether you believe the thesis. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.
What does TMC the metals company do?
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TMC the metals company (TMC), headquartered in Vancouver, Canada and listed on Nasdaq, is a deep-sea mining developer focused on polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone
What are the main risks of TMC?
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The dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Strong, organized environmental opposition argues that mining the Clarion-Clipperton Zone could cause lasting harm to poorly understood deep-sea ecosystems, which adds legal and reputational risk. The company is pre-revenue and burns cash each quarter, so it depends on continued financing and partner funding to reach production. The economics of recovering and processing nodules at commercial scale are unproven, and the whole thesis can move sharply on a single permitting, legal, or financing event.
What does TMC the metals company do?
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TMC is a deep-sea mining developer. It is working to harvest polymetallic nodules, metal-rich rocks that sit on the Pacific seafloor in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, which contain nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. Through subsidiaries NORI and TOML it holds exploration areas, and it partners with engineering and refining firms to move toward commercial recovery. It is pre-revenue and has not yet produced metals at scale.
Is TMC a good stock to buy right now?
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Descriptive, not a recommendation. The bull case is a very large critical-metals resource, a US permitting path that reached full compliance in 2026, and partners like Allseas and Korea Zinc. The bear case is that TMC is pre-revenue, burns cash, faces an international legal dispute and a moratorium coalition, and depends on unproven economics, making the outcome close to binary. Whether it fits depends on your goals and risk tolerance. Walnut is informational, not investment advice.
Is deep-sea mining legal?
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It is contested. TMC is pursuing US permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act through NOAA, which found its application in full compliance in 2026. But this path operates outside the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the UN-affiliated body many nations view as the proper regulator. The ISA opened an inquiry into TMC's subsidiaries, and a coalition of nations backs a moratorium, so the legal status remains disputed.
Does TMC pay a dividend?
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No. TMC does not pay a dividend. It is a pre-revenue development-stage company that posts a net loss each quarter and reinvests capital into permitting, engineering, and moving toward production. There is no income component to owning the stock; the entire investment case rests on the prospect of future commercial mining, which is not yet proven.
Walnut is informational and is not an investment adviser. This page is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell TMC; figures are approximate and dated, and your own situation, time horizon, and risk tolerance should drive any decision. Verify current data before investing.