Is AG a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Silver and gold price leverage, with revenue (ttm) at ~$1.64B, up ~57% year over year in the latest quarter. The bear case rests on the single largest risk is the silver price itself: a sustained decline would compress margins far faster than the metal falls because mining costs are largely fixed. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The single largest risk is the silver price itself: a sustained decline would compress margins far faster than the metal falls because mining costs are largely fixed. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Silver and gold price leverage. AG's revenue and margins are tied directly to spot silver and, increasingly, gold prices.

The single largest risk is the silver price itself: a sustained decline would compress margins far faster than the metal falls because mining costs are largely fixed. Geographic concentration is severe, with essentially all production in Mexico, exposing the company to peso currency swings, mining royalty and tax changes, permitting delays, and local security or labor disruptions; a 12-day labour dispute at San Dimas in the third quarter of 2026 is a live example. The proposed tax settlement with Mexico is only a framework, and if it falls apart the arbitration resumes and the liability stays unresolved. Rising input costs (energy, labor, consumables) can erode margins even when metal prices are steady. As a smaller producer than majors like Pan American or Fresnillo, AG has less operational diversification to absorb a single mine outage. The stock has historically been highly volatile and can move on sentiment and short interest as much as on fundamentals.

First Majestic Silver Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of mineral properties in North America. The company explores for silver and gold deposits.

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Silver and gold price leverage) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the single largest risk is the silver price itself: a sustained decline would compress margins far faster than the metal falls because mining costs are largely fixed) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

First Majestic Silver is a precious-metals mining company that operates four underground mines in Mexico. It primarily produces silver and gold, with byproduct zinc, lead, and copper, and sells the refined metals into global markets.

Because a miner earns the spread between metal prices and largely fixed costs, its profits swing far more than silver itself. A modest move in the silver price can produce an outsized move in AG's earnings and share price in either direction.

In January 2025 First Majestic completed a roughly $1.05 billion all-stock acquisition of Gatos Silver, gaining a 70% interest in the Los Gatos joint venture and the Cerro Los Gatos mine in Chihuahua, Mexico. It helped lift 2025 silver output to a company record.