agilon health, inc. (AGL) Stock Price & How to Invest

agilon health provides a platform, capital, and technology that let community primary-care physician groups take on full financial risk for their senior patients, mostly Medicare Advantage members plus ACO REACH beneficiaries. Instead of fee-for-service billing, agilon and its partner doctors are paid a fixed amount per member and keep the difference if they keep patients healthy and out of the hospital. The model scales through long-term partnerships in individual markets, and the company reports total platform membership around 536,000, including roughly 426,000 Medicare Advantage members and 110,000 in the ACO model.

The investment picture is a turnaround. After large losses in prior years (a full-year 2025 net loss of roughly $391 million), agilon has deliberately exited unprofitable payer contracts and markets, letting membership shrink to rebuild unit economics. Q1 2026 showed the early payoff: net income turned positive (about $30 million), adjusted EBITDA and medical margin rose sharply, and full-year revenue and profit guidance was raised. The second quarter held the gain, with revenue of about $1.49 billion and net income of about $18 million; EPS of $2.15 was far above the ~$0.27 analysts expected, after $2.32 versus ~$0.93 in the first quarter. The core question for investors is whether medical-cost trends stay contained and the smaller, higher-quality book compounds into consistent profitability, or whether Medicare Advantage rate and utilization pressure erodes the improvement.

The stock has re-rated around that evidence. AGL closed at $87.47 on October 16, 2026, up about 419% year to date and about 263% over twelve months, though it has given back roughly 30% over three months from a 52-week high near $133. Market value is about $1.47 billion. Since the summer agilon has kept adding partners, expanding a full-risk Medicare arrangement with Family Practice Center and bringing Springfield Clinic and The Jackson Clinic into its Senior Health Connect ACO in September 2026, and Bernstein upgraded the shares in mid-September. The harder part of the year is ahead: consensus calls for a loss of about $0.73 per share in the third quarter and about $3.71 in the fourth, when medical costs typically run higher, and about -$1.79 for full-year 2026 before a return to roughly $2.36 of profit per share in 2027. Third-quarter results are due November 4, 2026.

agilon carries meaningful medical-cost-trend risk: because it is paid a fixed amount per member, an unexpected rise in senior utilization or unit costs can swing it back to losses, which is what drove heavy prior-year losses. It is exposed to Medicare Advantage rate decisions, risk-adjustment methodology changes, and V28 model phase-in that pressure per-member revenue across the sector. The turnaround is early and depends on membership stabilizing after deliberate cuts, so profitability is not yet proven across a full year. As a small-cap with a modest share count, the stock can be volatile, and any single large market or payer contract going wrong is material. Historically it has been unprofitable on a GAAP full-year basis. The share price itself is a risk after a more than fourfold gain in 2026: the stock has already fallen about 30% from mid-July to mid-October, and expectations are now higher. Cash is modest at about $186 million against roughly $34 million of debt, and trailing free cash flow was about -$146 million.

12 analysts publish price targets on AGL, averaging $115.83 against a $85.22 price as of October 2026, or +35.9%. The published targets run from $85.00 to $146.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 5 buy, 9 hold, 1 sell. Over the last six months there have been 10 raises and 1 cut among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full AGL forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on agilon health, inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Margin-over-growth reset. agilon has shifted from chasing membership to prioritizing profitable contracts, exiting weaker payer relationships and markets. The most optimistic published target, $146.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. agilon carries meaningful medical-cost-trend risk: because it is paid a fixed amount per member, an unexpected rise in senior utilization or unit costs can swing it back to losses, which is what drove heavy prior-year losses. The most pessimistic target, $85.00, is roughly what AGL is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on AGL, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Yes. agilon health, inc. (AGL) has had one share split in the last 10 years:

• 1:25 on March 31, 2026, so every share held became 0.04 shares.

A split changes the share count and the price per share and leaves the value of a holding unchanged. Someone holding $1,000 of AGL the day before the 1:25 split held $1,000 the day after, in more shares at a proportionally lower price. Historical prices from before the date are normally shown split-adjusted, which is why a long-run chart shows no cliff.

Splits matter mainly because they make older price figures confusing to compare by hand, and because a board choosing to split is usually signalling that the price has run up far enough to feel awkward for smaller buyers. Neither is a reason to buy or sell.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see agilon health, inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$5.9B; Q2 2026 ~$1.49B, up ~7% YoY
• 2026 revenue consensus: ~$5.83B (2027 ~$6.24B)
• Net income: Q1 2026 ~$30M, Q2 2026 ~$18M; TTM ~-$251M
• EPS: Q2 2026 $2.15 vs ~$0.27 expected; 2026 consensus ~-$1.79, 2027 ~$2.36
• Cash / debt: ~$186M cash vs ~$34M debt
• Market cap: ~$1.47B (shares $87.47 on Oct 16, 2026)
• Price / sales: ~0.25x trailing revenue; ~37x 2027 EPS estimate

agilon generates billions in revenue but has historically run at a loss, posting a full-year 2025 net loss of roughly $391 million before turning profitable in the first two quarters of 2026. With the trailing year still negative, the stock is valued on revenue scale (about 0.25 times sales) and on the credibility of the 2027 profit path, roughly 37 times next year's EPS estimate. Twelve analysts carry a mean target near $116, and the November 4 third-quarter report will show whether second-half medical costs track the forecast losses or come in better.

Other names that sit close to AGL: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get AGL exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so AGL sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where AGL fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

AGL is a large-revenue, historically-unprofitable value-based care operator now prioritizing margin over growth, making it a bet on the turnaround holding. Two profitable quarters in 2026 sent the shares up more than fourfold this year, but analysts still expect losses in the seasonally harder second half, so the November 4 third-quarter report is a real test.

Whether AGL is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is AGL a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the AGL stock forecast.

For income investors, whether AGL pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does AGL pay a dividend? And to weigh AGL against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: AGL vs PRVA and AGL vs ASTH.