Ares Management (ARES) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Ares Management (ARES) right now is Private credit leadership: Ares is one of the largest private credit managers globally, with its credit group representing over 60% of AUM. Q1 2026 revenue is ~$1.27B. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is ares is heavily concentrated in credit, so a broad rise in defaults, spread compression, or a downturn in private-credit demand would pressure both fees and asset marks. No one can predict where ARES trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Ares Management (ARES) higher?
1. Private credit leadership
Ares is one of the largest private credit managers globally, with its credit group representing over 60% of AUM. As borrowers continue to shift from bank loans to direct lending, Ares collects recurring management fees on a growing, largely long-dated capital base, which is the core engine of its earnings growth.
2. Fee-related earnings growth
Management fees crossed $1 billion in a quarter for the first time in Q1 2026, and fee-related earnings rose about 26% year over year. The firm targets compound annual growth of roughly 16% to 20% in fee-related earnings, which tends to be more stable than performance fees because it does not depend on realizing gains.
3. Real assets and infrastructure expansion
The real assets group has grown to roughly 20% of AUM, focused on logistics, data centers, and essential infrastructure. This diversifies Ares beyond credit and taps demand tied to AI-driven data-center buildout and supply-chain investment.
4. Record fundraising and dry powder
Ares raised about $30 billion in Q1 2026, up 46% year over year, and holds over $158 billion available to deploy, including more than $100 billion in credit. That undeployed capital converts into future fee-paying AUM as it is put to work.
What could weigh on ARES?
Ares is heavily concentrated in credit, so a broad rise in defaults, spread compression, or a downturn in private-credit demand would pressure both fees and asset marks. Its valuation carries a high trailing earnings multiple, leaving little room for disappointment on fundraising or margins, and Q1 2026 revenue and EPS both missed analyst expectations. The firm and its affiliated vehicles face periodic legal and regulatory scrutiny, including a shareholder derivative suit against its Ares Capital (ARCC) business development company alleging inflated marks and excessive fees, and a past SEC compliance fine. Rising rates or a recession could slow fundraising and reduce performance fees. Its non-traded retail credit funds also expose it to redemption and marketing risk if sentiment sours.
Where ARES trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are ARES's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for ARES as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a ARES forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the ARES guide and whether ARES is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the ARES outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Ares Management (ARES) is Private credit leadership, with q1 2026 revenue at ~$1.27B. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is ares is heavily concentrated in credit, so a broad rise in defaults, spread compression, or a downturn in private-credit demand would pressure both fees and asset marks. No one can predict the price, so treat any ARES forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
More on ARES
- ARES stock guide (what the company does, ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits)
- Is ARES a buy? (the case for, the risks, and a framework to decide)
- Does ARES pay a dividend?
Build a basket around ARES with Walnut
Use Ares Management as one constituent in a thematic basket Walnut's AI helps you assemble. Describe a thesis you believe in, the AI proposes the holdings and weights, and you approve before any broker order.
FAQ
What is the forecast for Ares Management (ARES)?
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No one can reliably predict where ARES will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Ares Management higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive ARES higher?
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The main growth drivers are Private credit leadership; Fee-related earnings growth; Real assets and infrastructure expansion. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to ARES?
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Ares is heavily concentrated in credit, so a broad rise in defaults, spread compression, or a downturn in private-credit demand would pressure both fees and asset marks. Its valuation carries a high trailing earnings multiple, leaving little room for disappointment on fundraising or margins, and Q1 2026 revenue and EPS both missed analyst expectations. The firm and its affiliated vehicles face periodic legal and regulatory scrutiny, including a shareholder derivative suit against its Ares Capital (ARCC) business development company alleging inflated marks and excessive fees, and a past SEC compliance fine. Rising rates or a recession could slow fundraising and reduce performance fees. Its non-traded retail credit funds also expose it to redemption and marketing risk if sentiment sours.
Will ARES stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Ares Management's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is ARES a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the ARES "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.