BlackBerry (BB) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving BlackBerry (BB) right now is QNX royalty backlog and automotive software: QNX is the centerpiece of the story. Revenue (FY2026, ended Feb 2026) is ~$549M, up ~3% year over year. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is overall revenue growth is modest, often in the low-to-mid single digits, so the investment case leans heavily on QNX execution and backlog conversion. No one can predict where BB trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive BlackBerry (BB) higher?
QNX royalty backlog and automotive software
QNX is the centerpiece of the story. In fiscal 2026 it grew full-year revenue about 14% and reported a royalty backlog of roughly $950 million, contracted future revenue from design wins that ship over coming years. New automotive wins have been cited at names including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Volvo, and management frames QNX as a Rule of 40 business embedded in more than 275 million vehicles.
Secure Communications and government demand
The Secure Communications segment generated roughly $259 million in fiscal 2026 with strong segment gross margins. Its customers skew toward governments, defense, and regulated enterprises, and BlackBerry points to digital-sovereignty demand and expanding defense budgets as tailwinds. This segment provides recurring revenue that is less tied to the automotive production cycle than QNX.
Return to profitability and cash focus
After divesting the loss-making Cylance endpoint business to Arctic Wolf, BlackBerry shifted to a leaner cost structure and returned to GAAP net income, posting roughly $53 million for fiscal 2026 versus a prior-year loss. Management has emphasized profitability, cash generation, and share repurchases over the kind of acquisitions that defined earlier years.
Patent and IP licensing
BlackBerry retains a large patent portfolio spanning messaging, security, and wireless technologies. Licensing this intellectual property is a smaller, lumpier revenue stream than QNX or Secure Communications, but it adds optionality and reflects the company's long history in mobile and security.
What could weigh on BB?
Overall revenue growth is modest, often in the low-to-mid single digits, so the investment case leans heavily on QNX execution and backlog conversion. QNX revenue is exposed to automotive production volumes, which are cyclical and can soften in a weak car market. Secure Communications competes against large endpoint-management and cybersecurity vendors, and any turnaround can stall. The shares have also carried a meme-stock legacy that can make the price more volatile than the fundamentals alone would suggest.
How to think about a BB forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the BB guide and whether BB is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the BB outlook
The bottom line: what is driving BlackBerry (BB) is QNX royalty backlog and automotive software, with revenue (fy2026, ended feb 2026) at ~$549M, up ~3% year over year. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is overall revenue growth is modest, often in the low-to-mid single digits, so the investment case leans heavily on QNX execution and backlog conversion. No one can predict the price, so treat any BB forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for BlackBerry (BB)?
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No one can reliably predict where BB will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push BlackBerry higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive BB higher?
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The main growth drivers are QNX royalty backlog and automotive software; Secure Communications and government demand; Return to profitability and cash focus. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to BB?
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Overall revenue growth is modest, often in the low-to-mid single digits, so the investment case leans heavily on QNX execution and backlog conversion. QNX revenue is exposed to automotive production volumes, which are cyclical and can soften in a weak car market. Secure Communications competes against large endpoint-management and cybersecurity vendors, and any turnaround can stall. The shares have also carried a meme-stock legacy that can make the price more volatile than the fundamentals alone would suggest.
Will BB stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. BlackBerry's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is BB a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the BB "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.