Butterfly Network (BFLY) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Butterfly Network (BFLY) right now is Software and recurring-revenue mix shift: Software and other services revenue grew roughly 68% year over year in Q1 2026 to about $12M and now makes up a larger share of the total. Revenue (TTM) is ~$103M. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is butterfly remains unprofitable, with trailing losses of roughly $76M against about $103M of revenue as of Q1 2026, so it depends on its cash balance and, potentially, future capital raises that could dilute shareholders. No one can predict where BFLY trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Butterfly Network (BFLY) higher?
1. Software and recurring-revenue mix shift
Software and other services revenue grew roughly 68% year over year in Q1 2026 to about $12M and now makes up a larger share of the total. Because software carries much higher gross margins than probes, this mix shift is the main lever pushing company gross margin toward the high-60s percent range and narrowing the adjusted-EBITDA loss.
2. iQ3 probe and hardware refresh cycle
The higher-priced iQ3 probe, launched domestically and then internationally, has lifted average selling prices and international revenue. New hardware refreshes drive device replacement demand, though they also make quarterly revenue lumpy as sales are tied to launch timing and channel adoption.
3. AI and international expansion
Butterfly is embedding AI-guided acquisition and interpretation tools and pushing into international markets where handheld ultrasound can leapfrog expensive cart systems. Management frames AI plus global reach as the path to broadening the addressable market beyond specialist sonographers to generalist clinicians.
4. Cost discipline and path toward breakeven
The company has cut quarterly cash burn to record lows and narrowed its adjusted-EBITDA loss versus prior year while still investing in R&D and sales. Reaching sustainable profitability depends on holding operating expenses roughly flat while revenue compounds in the 20%-plus range.
What could weigh on BFLY?
Butterfly remains unprofitable, with trailing losses of roughly $76M against about $103M of revenue as of Q1 2026, so it depends on its cash balance and, potentially, future capital raises that could dilute shareholders. The point-of-care ultrasound market is competitive, with GE HealthCare, Philips, Clarius, Exo, and others fielding rival handheld devices, which can pressure pricing and adoption. Revenue is lumpy because it leans on hardware launch cycles and large institutional orders, and the stock trades at a high multiple of sales after a large run-up, leaving it vulnerable to sharp drawdowns if growth or margins disappoint. Regulatory, reimbursement, and clinical-adoption dynamics add further uncertainty to the timeline for profitability.
Where BFLY trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are BFLY's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for BFLY as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a BFLY forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the BFLY guide and whether BFLY is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the BFLY outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Butterfly Network (BFLY) is Software and recurring-revenue mix shift, with revenue (ttm) at ~$103M. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is butterfly remains unprofitable, with trailing losses of roughly $76M against about $103M of revenue as of Q1 2026, so it depends on its cash balance and, potentially, future capital raises that could dilute shareholders. No one can predict the price, so treat any BFLY forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for Butterfly Network (BFLY)?
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No one can reliably predict where BFLY will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Butterfly Network higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive BFLY higher?
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The main growth drivers are Software and recurring-revenue mix shift; iQ3 probe and hardware refresh cycle; AI and international expansion. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to BFLY?
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Butterfly remains unprofitable, with trailing losses of roughly $76M against about $103M of revenue as of Q1 2026, so it depends on its cash balance and, potentially, future capital raises that could dilute shareholders. The point-of-care ultrasound market is competitive, with GE HealthCare, Philips, Clarius, Exo, and others fielding rival handheld devices, which can pressure pricing and adoption. Revenue is lumpy because it leans on hardware launch cycles and large institutional orders, and the stock trades at a high multiple of sales after a large run-up, leaving it vulnerable to sharp drawdowns if growth or margins disappoint. Regulatory, reimbursement, and clinical-adoption dynamics add further uncertainty to the timeline for profitability.
Will BFLY stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Butterfly Network's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is BFLY a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the BFLY "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
How fast is Butterfly growing?
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Revenue grew about 25% year over year in Q1 2026 to roughly $26.5M, led by software and services up around 68%. Full-year 2026 guidance of about $117M to $121M implies roughly 20% to 24% annual growth.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.