BHP Group (BHP) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving BHP Group (BHP) right now is Copper as the growth engine: Copper has moved from a secondary business to roughly half of BHP's underlying EBITDA, and the company is the world's largest producer after crossing 2 million tonnes of annual output. Revenue (FY2025) is ~$51 billion. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is bHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. No one can predict where BHP trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive BHP Group (BHP) higher?
1. Copper as the growth engine
Copper has moved from a secondary business to roughly half of BHP's underlying EBITDA, and the company is the world's largest producer after crossing 2 million tonnes of annual output. Management guides toward continued copper growth from Escondida, Chile expansions, and longer-dated options in Argentina, Arizona and South Australia, positioning BHP for electrification and grid demand.
2. Low-cost iron ore cash engine
Western Australia Iron Ore remains BHP's largest cash generator and one of the lowest-cost operations globally, with record shipments unlocked by port debottlenecking. This division funds dividends and growth capital, though its earnings swing with iron ore prices and Chinese steel demand.
3. Potash optionality via Jansen
The Jansen potash project in Canada is BHP's largest greenfield diversification, with Stage 1 targeted for first production around mid-2027 at a multi-billion-dollar cost. It adds a new fertilizer-linked commodity stream intended to be less correlated with steel and industrial cycles, though it carries execution and cost-overrun risk before it contributes earnings.
4. Capital discipline and variable dividend
BHP runs a strong balance sheet and returns cash through a payout-ratio dividend policy, so shareholder returns scale with the commodity cycle. Balancing dividends against heavy copper and potash growth spending is a central tension in the equity story.
What could weigh on BHP?
BHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. A downturn in commodity prices compresses margins and reduces the variable dividend, so income is not guaranteed. Large projects such as Jansen carry execution, cost-overrun and timing risk, and Escondida faces natural grade decline and water and labor constraints in Chile. The company also faces regulatory, environmental and community risks across many jurisdictions, plus legacy liabilities such as the Samarco dam-failure litigation in Brazil. As an ADR, US holders also take on currency and dividend-withholding considerations.
Where BHP trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are BHP's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for BHP as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a BHP forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the BHP guide and whether BHP is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the BHP outlook
The bottom line: what is driving BHP Group (BHP) is Copper as the growth engine, with revenue (fy2025) at ~$51 billion. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is bHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. No one can predict the price, so treat any BHP forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for BHP Group (BHP)?
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No one can reliably predict where BHP will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push BHP Group higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive BHP higher?
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The main growth drivers are Copper as the growth engine; Low-cost iron ore cash engine; Potash optionality via Jansen. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to BHP?
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BHP's earnings are highly sensitive to iron ore and copper prices, which are driven by Chinese property and steel demand, global growth, and supply from rivals. A downturn in commodity prices compresses margins and reduces the variable dividend, so income is not guaranteed. Large projects such as Jansen carry execution, cost-overrun and timing risk, and Escondida faces natural grade decline and water and labor constraints in Chile. The company also faces regulatory, environmental and community risks across many jurisdictions, plus legacy liabilities such as the Samarco dam-failure litigation in Brazil. As an ADR, US holders also take on currency and dividend-withholding considerations.
Will BHP stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. BHP Group's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is BHP a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the BHP "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.