CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) Stock Price & How to Invest

CareDx builds and sells diagnostics, digital tools, and services for the organ-transplant community. Its core products are AlloSure, a next-generation-sequencing test that measures donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) to detect kidney and heart transplant injury, and AlloMap, a long-established gene-expression test used by the large majority of U.S. heart-transplant centers. Around these tests the company layers patient-management software, pharmacy services, and a research-and-products franchise, positioning itself as an integrated transplant platform rather than a single-test lab.

The investment picture is one of a small-cap growth-plus-turnaround story. Revenue reaccelerated sharply in early 2026 (Q1 up about 39% year over year) and the company posted a rare quarterly profit, while raising full-year guidance and reshaping its portfolio through the Naveris oncology acquisition and the divestiture of its Lab Products unit. The bull case rests on durable testing-volume growth and expanding margins; the bear case centers on reimbursement risk and heavy reliance on the AlloSure and HeartCare franchises. The result is a name with genuine momentum but a valuation that already prices in continued execution.

Since then the momentum has grown. Q2 2026 revenue rose about 52% year over year to roughly $132 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.37 beat the $0.23 consensus, the second straight quarter well ahead of estimates. GAAP net income for the quarter was about $111 million, far above operating profit (the trailing operating margin is near zero), so non-operating items accounted for most of it. Trailing revenue is now about $458 million. Reimbursement news has also turned supportive: a Medicare local coverage determination for solid organ allograft rejection testing was described by Craig Hallum as quite favorable for CareDx, and the proposed 2027 clinical laboratory fee schedule as a slight positive. Analysts chased the stock higher, with BTIG lifting its target in steps to $74 and Canaccord Genuity initiating at Buy with a $65 target in September. As of October 16, 2026 the shares closed at $64.46, up about 237% year to date and 330% over one year, giving a market cap of about $3.3 billion. Q3 2026 results are scheduled for October 29, 2026, with consensus at about $0.25 of EPS on $122 million of revenue.

Reimbursement is the central risk: bears flag potential headwinds of roughly $15 million to $30 million a year from possible coverage or coding changes, which would matter against a trailing revenue base near $458 million, although the recent Medicare coverage determination for allograft rejection testing has been read as favorable. The business is concentrated in the AlloSure and HeartCare franchises, so pricing pressure or a coverage decision there disproportionately affects results. Competition is intensifying, notably from Natera's Prospera test plus Eurofins Transplant Genomics, Devyser, and others, and the rivalry has spilled into litigation. Trailing GAAP net income of about $111 million is flattered by non-operating items, since operating margin is close to zero, so the core earnings turnaround is still early. Valuation has become a risk in its own right: after a 237% year-to-date gain the stock trades above the roughly $62 mean analyst target and at about 50 times forward earnings, and analysts expect 2027 revenue growth to slow to about 8%. Integration risk from the Naveris acquisition and execution risk on the Lab Products divestiture add further uncertainty. Walnut is not an investment adviser; this page describes the company and is not a recommendation.

6 analysts publish price targets on CDNA, averaging $61.67 against a $64.00 price as of October 2026, or -3.6%. The published targets run from $46.00 to $75.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 5 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell. Over the last six months there have been 4 raises and 0 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full CDNA forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on CareDx, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. Testing-volume growth. Testing services are the engine, with volume rising about 17% in Q1 2026 and full-year test volume guided to roughly 224,000 to 229,000. The most optimistic published target, $75.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Reimbursement is the central risk: bears flag potential headwinds of roughly $15 million to $30 million a year from possible coverage or coding changes, which would matter against a trailing revenue base near $458 million, although the recent Medicare coverage determination for allograft rejection testing has been read as favorable. The most pessimistic target, $46.00, is roughly what CDNA is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on CDNA, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

No. CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) has not split its stock in the last 10 years. That is a statement about the window we check rather than about the company’s entire history, so an older split is possible. It also matters less than it once did: fractional shares mean a high price per share no longer keeps smaller investors out, which removed most of the practical reason to split.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see CareDx, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (TTM): ~$458M
• Revenue growth (Q2 2026, YoY): ~52%
• Q2 2026 adj. EPS vs est.: $0.37 vs $0.23
• Gross / operating margin (TTM): ~71% / ~0%
• Net income (TTM): ~$111M
• P/E trailing / forward: ~31x / ~50x
• Market cap: ~$3.3B

At $64.46 on October 16, 2026, CDNA trades at about 7.3 times trailing revenue, more than double the multiple of mid-2026, after the stock more than tripled this year. The trailing P/E of about 31 looks lower than the forward P/E of about 50 because trailing net income includes large non-operating gains; operating profit is near break-even. A cash pile of about $374 million with minimal debt gives flexibility, and reimbursement outcomes plus the October 29 Q3 report are the swing factors.

If you want CDNA exposure as part of a larger bundle rather than directly, these ETFs hold it meaningfully. Weights are approximate and refresh quarterly.

Other names that sit close to CDNA: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get CDNA exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it (ARKG), which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so CDNA sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where CDNA fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

CDNA is a focused transplant-testing leader whose growth and newfound profitability are real, but reimbursement dependence and product concentration keep it a higher-risk position. After a 2026 rally that took the shares above the average analyst target, the valuation now assumes a lot of that growth continues; Q3 results are due October 29, 2026.

Whether CDNA is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is CDNA a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the CDNA stock forecast.

For income investors, whether CDNA pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does CDNA pay a dividend? And to weigh CDNA against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: CDNA vs NSIT and CDNA vs GH.