Chagee Holdings (CHA) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Chagee Holdings (CHA) right now is Rapid store expansion and overseas push: Chagee grew its network to about 7,531 teahouses as of March 2026, up roughly 12.7% year over year, and reported overseas GMV up around 139%. Revenue (TTM) is ~$1.8B (~RMB 13B). If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is chagee operates in one of the most competitive consumer categories anywhere, facing mass-market tea giants like Mixue and Guming, premium rivals like HeyTea and Nayuki, and coffee chains such as Luckin and Starbucks that have pushed into low-priced milk tea, including drinks marketed as direct Chagee substitutes. No one can predict where CHA trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Chagee Holdings (CHA) higher?
1. Rapid store expansion and overseas push
Chagee grew its network to about 7,531 teahouses as of March 2026, up roughly 12.7% year over year, and reported overseas GMV up around 139%. International markets across Southeast Asia and an early US presence give the brand a longer growth runway than a China-only footprint. Continued unit growth is the main lever behind revenue expansion.
2. Shift toward company-owned stores
Company-owned teahouses jumped to roughly 790 locations from 191 a year earlier, and their revenue rose more than 230% year over year. Owned stores capture full retail economics rather than just wholesale margins to franchisees, which can lift long-term revenue per store. The trade-off is heavier operating costs and near-term margin pressure during the transition.
3. Brand strength and loyalty scale
Chagee positions itself in the premium freshly-made tea segment, concentrated in tier-1 and tier-2 Chinese cities, with a loyalty base of about 50 million active members. A recognizable brand and large membership provide repeat traffic and marketing efficiency. This positioning is what management leans on to defend pricing against cheaper mass-market rivals.
4. Capital returns and balance-sheet cushion
The company approved a share repurchase program of up to $150 million in Class A shares, a signal of confidence after the post-IPO decline. Chagee generated positive net income and operating income in 2025, giving it internal funds for both expansion and buybacks. Capital returns are unusual for a company still in a fast growth phase.
What could weigh on CHA?
Chagee operates in one of the most competitive consumer categories anywhere, facing mass-market tea giants like Mixue and Guming, premium rivals like HeyTea and Nayuki, and coffee chains such as Luckin and Starbucks that have pushed into low-priced milk tea, including drinks marketed as direct Chagee substitutes. This price war has pressured same-store sales and margins, and net income fell year over year in the first quarter of 2026 despite higher revenue. As a China-based business, results are exposed to weak Chinese consumer spending, and as a foreign private issuer with a Nasdaq listing it carries added regulatory, disclosure, and potential delisting risks common to US-listed Chinese companies. The stock has been volatile and trades well below its 2025 IPO price, and heavy reliance on continued franchise and overseas expansion means any slowdown in store growth would weigh directly on the thesis.
Where CHA trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are CHA's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for CHA as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a CHA forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the CHA guide and whether CHA is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the CHA outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Chagee Holdings (CHA) is Rapid store expansion and overseas push, with revenue (ttm) at ~$1.8B (~RMB 13B). If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is chagee operates in one of the most competitive consumer categories anywhere, facing mass-market tea giants like Mixue and Guming, premium rivals like HeyTea and Nayuki, and coffee chains such as Luckin and Starbucks that have pushed into low-priced milk tea, including drinks marketed as direct Chagee substitutes. No one can predict the price, so treat any CHA forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Build a basket around CHA with Walnut
Use Chagee Holdings as one constituent in a thematic basket Walnut's AI helps you assemble. Describe a thesis you believe in, the AI proposes the holdings and weights, and you approve before any broker order.
FAQ
What is the forecast for Chagee Holdings (CHA)?
+
No one can reliably predict where CHA will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Chagee Holdings higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive CHA higher?
+
The main growth drivers are Rapid store expansion and overseas push; Shift toward company-owned stores; Brand strength and loyalty scale. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to CHA?
+
Chagee operates in one of the most competitive consumer categories anywhere, facing mass-market tea giants like Mixue and Guming, premium rivals like HeyTea and Nayuki, and coffee chains such as Luckin and Starbucks that have pushed into low-priced milk tea, including drinks marketed as direct Chagee substitutes. This price war has pressured same-store sales and margins, and net income fell year over year in the first quarter of 2026 despite higher revenue. As a China-based business, results are exposed to weak Chinese consumer spending, and as a foreign private issuer with a Nasdaq listing it carries added regulatory, disclosure, and potential delisting risks common to US-listed Chinese companies. The stock has been volatile and trades well below its 2025 IPO price, and heavy reliance on continued franchise and overseas expansion means any slowdown in store growth would weigh directly on the thesis.
Will CHA stock go up in 2026?
+
Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Chagee Holdings's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is CHA a buy?
+
That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the CHA "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
How fast is Chagee growing its stores?
+
Chagee expanded to about 7,531 teahouses as of March 2026, up roughly 12.7% year over year, with company-owned locations rising quickly to around 790 from 191. Overseas GMV grew sharply, though overall revenue growth cooled to the low single digits.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.