Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) right now is Record backlog and revenue visibility: Elbit's order backlog surpassed $30 billion for the first time in Q1 2026, up from $28.1 billion at the end of 2025 and $22.6 billion a year earlier. Revenue (FY2025) is ~$7.9B. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is the most cited risk is valuation: ESLT trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio around the low-to-mid 60s, far above the industrials-sector average, so disappointing execution could compress the multiple sharply. No one can predict where ESLT trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) higher?
1. Record backlog and revenue visibility
Elbit's order backlog surpassed $30 billion for the first time in Q1 2026, up from $28.1 billion at the end of 2025 and $22.6 billion a year earlier. That backlog represents several years of revenue and provides unusual visibility for an industrial company. It reflects a wave of new contracts, including large European and Israeli defense awards booked through early 2026.
2. European rearmament tailwind
European governments have sharply increased defense budgets, and Elbit has won sizable orders there, including a roughly $1.4 billion European modernization contract and a $750 million PULS artillery deal with Greece. With about 72% of backlog coming from outside Israel, the company is positioned as a supplier to the broader NATO-aligned rearmament cycle rather than a purely domestic contractor.
3. Margin and cash-flow improvement
Non-GAAP operating margins moved past the 10% mark in Q1 2026, and full-year 2025 free cash flow rose about 73% to roughly $553 million. Rising volume, operating leverage and disciplined execution have improved profitability. Stronger cash generation supports the dividend and reinvestment in capacity to fulfill the growing backlog.
4. Diversified defense product breadth
Elbit spans C4ISR, electro-optics, unmanned systems, precision munitions, airborne systems and land platforms, which reduces reliance on any single program. This breadth lets it participate across the land, sea and air modernization budgets of many governments. Its US subsidiary, Elbit Systems of America, also gives it access to the world's largest defense market.
What could weigh on ESLT?
The most cited risk is valuation: ESLT trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio around the low-to-mid 60s, far above the industrials-sector average, so disappointing execution could compress the multiple sharply. Israel-specific geopolitical and reputational exposure is real, as some European governments have at times restricted or scrutinized arms purchases from Israeli suppliers, and ESG-driven divestment pressure has surfaced. The company also carries currency exposure to the Israeli shekel and depends on sustained elevated global defense spending, which could soften if conflicts de-escalate or budgets are reprioritized. Program delays, supply-chain constraints and heavy reliance on government customers add execution and concentration risk.
Where ESLT trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are ESLT's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for ESLT as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a ESLT forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the ESLT guide and whether ESLT is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the ESLT outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT) is Record backlog and revenue visibility, with revenue (fy2025) at ~$7.9B. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is the most cited risk is valuation: ESLT trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio around the low-to-mid 60s, far above the industrials-sector average, so disappointing execution could compress the multiple sharply. No one can predict the price, so treat any ESLT forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Build a basket around ESLT with Walnut
Use Elbit Systems Ltd as one constituent in a thematic basket Walnut's AI helps you assemble. Describe a thesis you believe in, the AI proposes the holdings and weights, and you approve before any broker order.
FAQ
What is the forecast for Elbit Systems Ltd (ESLT)?
+
No one can reliably predict where ESLT will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Elbit Systems Ltd higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive ESLT higher?
+
The main growth drivers are Record backlog and revenue visibility; European rearmament tailwind; Margin and cash-flow improvement. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to ESLT?
+
The most cited risk is valuation: ESLT trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio around the low-to-mid 60s, far above the industrials-sector average, so disappointing execution could compress the multiple sharply. Israel-specific geopolitical and reputational exposure is real, as some European governments have at times restricted or scrutinized arms purchases from Israeli suppliers, and ESG-driven divestment pressure has surfaced. The company also carries currency exposure to the Israeli shekel and depends on sustained elevated global defense spending, which could soften if conflicts de-escalate or budgets are reprioritized. Program delays, supply-chain constraints and heavy reliance on government customers add execution and concentration risk.
Will ESLT stock go up in 2026?
+
Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Elbit Systems Ltd's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is ESLT a buy?
+
That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the ESLT "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.