Is EXEL a Buy? What to Consider in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
The bull case for Exelixis (EXEL) rests on Cabozantinib franchise growth: Cabozantinib remains the growth engine, with Q1 2026 cabozantinib franchise net product revenue of about $555 million and continued share gains as the leading TKI in second-line-plus kidney cancer and the oral market leader in neuroendocrine tumors. Revenue (TTM) is ~$2.2 billion (Q1 2026 total revenue was ~$611 million, up ~10% year over year). If you believe that thesis holds, the real questions become position sizing and overlap, not timing. The main risk to that view: The dominant risk is single-franchise concentration: the large majority of revenue comes from cabozantinib, so any competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would hit the whole company. Whether EXEL is a buy comes down to whether you believe the thesis. This is informational, not a recommendation, and Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Exelixis, Inc. is a commercial-stage oncology company whose business is dominated by cabozantinib, sold in the United States as CABOMETYX. Cabozantinib is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) approved across several cancers, most importantly advanced renal cell carcinoma (kidney cancer) and certain neuroendocrine tumors, and it is the market-leading TKI in second-line-plus kidney cancer. In the first quarter of 2026, cabozantinib captured roughly 47% of total TKI prescriptions in its core setting, up from about 44% a year earlier, and the franchise generated the large majority of company revenue. Unlike clinical-stage biotechs that burn cash, Exelixis is solidly profitable and returns capital through share buybacks. The investment picture in mid-2026 balances a growing, cash-generating core drug against a looming patent cliff and a high-stakes pipeline transition. Cabozantinib faces generic competition risk later this decade (litigation has pushed the timeline out, with meaningful generic exposure viewed as a post-2029 event), so the company is racing to launch its successor molecule, zanzalintinib, in new indications. The pivotal STELLAR-303 trial in previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer met its primary overall-survival endpoint, and an NDA for zanzalintinib plus atezolizumab was accepted for U.S. review, with a regulatory decision expected around December 2026. Exelixis is expanding its gastrointestinal sales team ahead of a potential colorectal launch, making 2026 a bridge year between the mature cabozantinib franchise and the zanzalintinib era.
What's the case for buying EXEL?
1. Cabozantinib franchise growth
Cabozantinib remains the growth engine, with Q1 2026 cabozantinib franchise net product revenue of about $555 million and continued share gains as the leading TKI in second-line-plus kidney cancer and the oral market leader in neuroendocrine tumors. Full-year 2026 net product revenue guidance of roughly $2.325 to $2.425 billion assumes continued demand growth. As long as this franchise compounds, it funds both buybacks and pipeline investment.
2. Zanzalintinib pipeline transition
Zanzalintinib is the designed successor to cabozantinib and the key to extending the story past the patent cliff. The STELLAR-303 colorectal-cancer trial met its overall-survival endpoint, an NDA in combination with atezolizumab was accepted for U.S. review, and a decision is expected around December 2026. A colorectal launch late in 2026, plus additional STELLAR trials in kidney and other cancers, would give Exelixis a second commercial pillar.
3. Profitability and capital returns
Exelixis is unusual among biotechs in being consistently profitable, with Q1 2026 non-GAAP net income of about $233 million (roughly $0.87 diluted per share) and operating margins that expanded on disciplined costs. It ended the period with roughly $1.65 billion in cash and marketable securities and authorized a new $750 million share-repurchase program, so it can invest in the pipeline while returning capital.
4. Label and indication expansion
Beyond colorectal cancer, Exelixis is pursuing zanzalintinib and cabozantinib in additional tumor types, and cabozantinib itself continues to add approved settings over time. Each new indication broadens the addressable population and reduces reliance on any single use. The breadth of the STELLAR development program is what could turn a one-drug company into a multi-indication oncology franchise.
What are the risks to EXEL?
The dominant risk is single-franchise concentration: the large majority of revenue comes from cabozantinib, so any competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would hit the whole company. Cabozantinib faces a patent cliff and generic competition risk later this decade (litigation has delayed but not removed it), which makes the zanzalintinib transition critical and time-sensitive. Pipeline risk is real, as trials can miss endpoints or draw a narrow label, and Exelixis has already discontinued some zanzalintinib programs such as head and neck cancer. Regulatory timing, including the roughly December 2026 colorectal decision, can slip. Competition in kidney and colorectal cancer from large pharma and other TKIs and immunotherapies is intense, and the stock can move sharply on binary clinical and regulatory news.
How is EXEL valued? (as of July 2026)
Snapshot for EXEL as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
- Revenue (TTM): ~$2.2 billion (Q1 2026 total revenue was ~$611 million, up ~10% year over year)
- 2026 revenue guidance: ~$2.525 to $2.625 billion total (net product ~$2.325 to $2.425 billion)
- Non-GAAP net income (Q1 2026): ~$233 million (~$0.87 diluted per share, beating estimates)
- Cash and marketable securities: ~$1.65 billion, with a new ~$750 million buyback authorized
- Market cap: ~$13 to $14 billion (stock in the mid-$50s per share)
- P/E ratio: ~18x trailing, ~15x forward
Figures are approximate and tied to the asOf date, so verify live numbers before acting. Exelixis trades at a moderate biotech multiple that partly reflects its rare profitability, but that multiple embeds two big assumptions: that cabozantinib keeps growing into the patent cliff and that zanzalintinib successfully replaces it. Because so much value hinges on clinical and regulatory outcomes, the valuation is more sensitive to STELLAR trial data and the colorectal decision than to any single earnings print.
How do you decide if EXEL is a buy?
Rather than asking whether EXEL is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:
- Thesis: do you believe the case above, and is it still true today?
- Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
- Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
- Overlap: check whether you already hold EXEL indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.
For the full picture, see the EXEL stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about EXEL against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.
The bottom line on EXEL
The bottom line: Exelixis's story right now is Cabozantinib franchise growth, with revenue (ttm) at ~$2.2 billion (Q1 2026 total revenue was ~$611 million, up ~10% year over year). If you believe that narrative continues, the call is about sizing EXEL sensibly and checking overlap with what you own; if you doubt it (the risk: the dominant risk is single-franchise concentration: the large majority of revenue comes from cabozantinib, so any competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would hit the whole company.), it is not for you. Decide from the thesis, not the ticker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
Is EXEL a good stock to buy right now?
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The case for Exelixis right now is Cabozantinib franchise growth, with revenue (ttm) at ~$2.2 billion (Q1 2026 total revenue was ~$611 million, up ~10% year over year). If you believe that thesis holds, EXEL is a way to own it and the real questions are sizing and overlap, not timing; the main risk to that view is the dominant risk is single-franchise concentration: the large majority of revenue comes from cabozantinib, so any competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would hit the whole company. So it comes down to whether you believe the thesis. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.
What does Exelixis do?
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Exelixis, Inc.
What are the main risks of EXEL?
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The dominant risk is single-franchise concentration: the large majority of revenue comes from cabozantinib, so any competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would hit the whole company. Cabozantinib faces a patent cliff and generic competition risk later this decade (litigation has delayed but not removed it), which makes the zanzalintinib transition critical and time-sensitive. Pipeline risk is real, as trials can miss endpoints or draw a narrow label, and Exelixis has already discontinued some zanzalintinib programs such as head and neck cancer. Regulatory timing, including the roughly December 2026 colorectal decision, can slip. Competition in kidney and colorectal cancer from large pharma and other TKIs and immunotherapies is intense, and the stock can move sharply on binary clinical and regulatory news.
Is EXEL a good stock to buy right now?
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That depends on your goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, and this is not investment advice. The bull case is a growing, profitable cabozantinib franchise, a strong cash position with buybacks, and a promising successor drug in zanzalintinib heading toward a late-2026 colorectal decision. The bear case is heavy reliance on one drug facing a patent cliff later this decade, plus pipeline and regulatory risk. Weigh both against your portfolio.
What does Exelixis actually do?
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Exelixis is a commercial-stage oncology company that discovers, develops, and sells cancer drugs. Its business centers on cabozantinib, sold as CABOMETYX, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor approved in cancers including advanced kidney cancer and certain neuroendocrine tumors. Unlike many biotechs, it is profitable, and it is developing a next-generation molecule, zanzalintinib, to extend its franchise.
Why does EXEL depend so much on one drug?
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Cabozantinib, marketed as CABOMETYX, generates the large majority of Exelixis's revenue, making it a concentrated single-franchise company. That concentration boosts profitability when the drug grows but raises risk, because a competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would affect the whole business. Reducing this reliance is exactly why zanzalintinib and label expansion matter so much.
What is zanzalintinib and why does it matter?
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Zanzalintinib is Exelixis's next-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitor, designed as a successor to cabozantinib. Its pivotal STELLAR-303 trial met its overall-survival endpoint in previously treated metastatic colorectal cancer, and an NDA in combination with atezolizumab was accepted for U.S. review, with a decision expected around December 2026. It is central to extending Exelixis's revenue past cabozantinib's eventual patent cliff.
Walnut is informational and is not an investment adviser. This page is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell EXEL; figures are approximate and dated, and your own situation, time horizon, and risk tolerance should drive any decision. Verify current data before investing.