Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) right now is HELOC origination scale and market leadership: Figure is the largest non-bank HELOC originator in the U.S., and its origination volume has grown quickly, with roughly $2.4 billion in HELOC lending in the third quarter of 2025 alone. Revenue (TTM) is ~$510 million (up ~74%). If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is figure carries elevated, above-average risk for a recently public company. No one can predict where FIGR trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) higher?
1. HELOC origination scale and market leadership.
Figure is the largest non-bank HELOC originator in the U.S., and its origination volume has grown quickly, with roughly $2.4 billion in HELOC lending in the third quarter of 2025 alone. At the end of that quarter it serviced more than 302,000 HELOCs with an unpaid principal balance of about $11.1 billion. Because home equity is a large and under-tapped market when mortgage rates keep homeowners from refinancing, continued origination growth is the central driver of revenue.
2. Figure Connect marketplace and capital-markets flywheel.
Figure Connect, launched in June 2024, lets Figure and third parties buy and sell loans in a standardized electronic marketplace, and the company reported over $1.15 billion in whole loan sales executed on the platform in March 2026 alone. If more originators and buyers join, Figure can earn fees on transaction volume it does not fund itself, turning it into a marketplace and technology business rather than only a balance-sheet lender. This capital-light distribution is what management frames as its long-term advantage.
3. Profitability and revenue growth.
Figure turned profitable as it scaled, reporting net income of roughly $89.8 million in the third quarter of 2025 and trailing-twelve-month net income above $100 million by mid-2026, with revenue growing at a high double-digit rate. Sustained profitability at a young fintech is unusual and, if it continues, supports the case that the model can fund its own growth. The durability of these margins through a full rate and credit cycle is still unproven.
4. Expansion into new lending and crypto-native products.
Figure has broadened beyond HELOCs through its Kiavi acquisition (residential real estate investor lending) and a suite of blockchain-linked products including Democratized Prime, the YLDS yield-bearing stablecoin, and the OPEN equity network. Each new product is a potential additional revenue line that leverages the same origination and marketplace infrastructure. Adoption of these newer products, however, is early and less proven than the core HELOC business.
What could weigh on FIGR?
Figure carries elevated, above-average risk for a recently public company. In April 2026, short-seller Morpheus Research published a report arguing that Figure overstates how central blockchain is to its operations and that several of its crypto-native products have stalled, and it disclosed a short position; Figure disputed the report, but the controversy has weighed on the stock and remains unresolved. In February 2026 the company confirmed a data breach exposing sensitive personal and financial information of nearly one million people, which has drawn consumer class-action litigation and reputational risk. The business is economically cyclical and rate-sensitive, because HELOC demand, loan pricing, and marketplace activity all depend on interest rates, home prices, and consumer credit conditions, so a housing downturn or rising defaults would pressure origination volume and credit losses. The stock trades at a high earnings multiple and has been extremely volatile (falling from roughly $78 in January 2026 to the low $30s), meaning the price already assumes strong future growth and can move sharply on sentiment. Finally, as a young public company with a founder-led governance structure and concentrated insider ownership, execution and key-person risk around co-founder Mike Cagney are meaningful.
Where FIGR trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are FIGR's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for FIGR as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a FIGR forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the FIGR guide and whether FIGR is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the FIGR outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) is HELOC origination scale and market leadership, with revenue (ttm) at ~$510 million (up ~74%). If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is figure carries elevated, above-average risk for a recently public company. No one can predict the price, so treat any FIGR forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR)?
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No one can reliably predict where FIGR will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Figure Technology Solutions higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive FIGR higher?
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The main growth drivers are HELOC origination scale and market leadership; Figure Connect marketplace and capital-markets flywheel; Profitability and revenue growth. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to FIGR?
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Figure carries elevated, above-average risk for a recently public company. In April 2026, short-seller Morpheus Research published a report arguing that Figure overstates how central blockchain is to its operations and that several of its crypto-native products have stalled, and it disclosed a short position; Figure disputed the report, but the controversy has weighed on the stock and remains unresolved. In February 2026 the company confirmed a data breach exposing sensitive personal and financial information of nearly one million people, which has drawn consumer class-action litigation and reputational risk. The business is economically cyclical and rate-sensitive, because HELOC demand, loan pricing, and marketplace activity all depend on interest rates, home prices, and consumer credit conditions, so a housing downturn or rising defaults would pressure origination volume and credit losses. The stock trades at a high earnings multiple and has been extremely volatile (falling from roughly $78 in January 2026 to the low $30s), meaning the price already assumes strong future growth and can move sharply on sentiment. Finally, as a young public company with a founder-led governance structure and concentrated insider ownership, execution and key-person risk around co-founder Mike Cagney are meaningful.
Will FIGR stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Figure Technology Solutions's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is FIGR a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the FIGR "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.