Is HALO a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Royalty compounding from products launched since 2020, with revenue (ttm) at ~$1.66B. The bear case rests on the 2027 US rHuPH20 patent expiry is a dated, contractually specified step-down in royalty rates in countries where no other valid claim covers a partner product, and no amount of revenue growth removes that clock. Analysts covering it are spread from $70.00 to $105.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The 2027 US rHuPH20 patent expiry is a dated, contractually specified step-down in royalty rates in countries where no other valid claim covers a partner product, and no amount of revenue growth removes that clock. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $70.00, -32.1% from the $103.12 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Royalty compounding from products launched since 2020. Q2 2026 royalties of ~$307.7 million were up ~50% year over year, led by DARZALEX at ~$152.2 million (+27%) and VYVGART Hytrulo at ~$72.6 million (+143%), with Phesgo at ~$28.4 million and all other products at ~$54.4 million (+85%). The most optimistic analyst target on HALO is $105.00, +1.8% from the $103.12 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

The 2027 US rHuPH20 patent expiry is a dated, contractually specified step-down in royalty rates in countries where no other valid claim covers a partner product, and no amount of revenue growth removes that clock. Concentration remains high: DARZALEX alone was roughly half of Q2 royalties, and partners can generally terminate an ENHANZE agreement on 90 days notice. Competitive substitution is real, since Merck chose a rival hyaluronidase route for subcutaneous Keytruda and other developers are pursuing the same alternative, which is precisely what the MDASE litigation is about; an adverse PTAB or appellate outcome would weaken that estate. The balance sheet carries ~$2.18 billion of convertible principal against roughly ~$231.9 million of cash and investments at June 30, 2026, so the model depends on royalty cash flow continuing to convert cleanly. Finally, the Elektrofi and Surf Bio platforms are early: Hypercon has been demonstrated non-clinically and Surf Bio was preclinical at acquisition, so the mid-2040s patent life is only worth what partners eventually commercialize. The most pessimistic published target is $70.00, -32.1% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

Royalty-led drug-delivery licensor whose ENHANZE platform converts partners' intravenous biologics into subcutaneous injections.

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Royalty compounding from products launched since 2020) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the 2027 US rHuPH20 patent expiry is a dated, contractually specified step-down in royalty rates in countries where no other valid claim covers a partner product, and no amount of revenue growth removes that clock) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

It licenses drug delivery technology. ENHANZE uses rHuPH20, a recombinant human hyaluronidase, to break down hyaluronan under the skin so partners can inject a large-volume biologic subcutaneously instead of infusing it intravenously. Halozyme earns upfronts, milestones and mid-single-digit royalties, and also sells bulk rHuPH20 to those same partners plus two proprietary products, Hylenex and XYOSTED, and auto-injector devices.

In Q2 2026, royalties were ~$307.7 million of ~$481.0 million in total revenue, about 64%. Product sales were ~$129.6 million (split across proprietary products, bulk rHuPH20 sold to partners and device partnered products) and collaboration revenue was ~$43.7 million, which is lumpy because it includes upfront and milestone payments. Full-year 2026 guidance implies royalties of ~$1.22 billion to ~$1.245 billion on ~$1.835 billion to ~$1.910 billion of total revenue, so the royalty share is expected to rise to roughly two thirds.

The issued US patent covering rHuPH20 expires in 2027, the European patent in 2029, with additional patents valid into 2029. Collaboration agreements generally run to the later of a specified term or the last valid claim, and in countries where no other valid claim covers the product, the royalty rate steps down once the rHuPH20 patents expire there. Royalties do not stop at that date, but the rate on some products in some geographies declines, which is the single most load-bearing modeling question for this name.