Is HE a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on A capital plan that finally grows the rate base, with revenue (ttm) at ~$3.1 billion, down ~3% year over year. The bear case rests on the obvious risk is another fire. Analysts covering it are spread from $11.75 to $13.50, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The obvious risk is another fire. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $11.75, -5.9% from the $12.49 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

A capital plan that finally grows the rate base. Utility earnings track invested capital, and HEI's capital spending is set to nearly double from about $368 million in 2025 to a planned $625 million to $750 million in 2026, with elevated levels guided through 2028. The most optimistic analyst target on HE is $13.50, +8.1% from the $12.49 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

The obvious risk is another fire. Hawaii's liability cap and recovery fund are still in rulemaking, so a second catastrophic event before that framework exists would land on a company with sub-investment-grade credit, no dividend cushion and three remaining $479 million payments outstanding. Financing is the second risk: the company must fund a doubled capital program and the settlement schedule simultaneously from a below-investment-grade balance sheet, which leaves equity issuance and dilution as live possibilities. Regulatory outcomes are the third: HEI operates in the most expensive electricity market in the United States, where rate increases are politically fraught, and operations and maintenance costs are currently growing faster than inflation while the rebasing request sits unresolved. The business is also concentrated in one small, tourism-dependent island economy with no geographic diversification, and there is no dividend to pay holders for waiting. Separately, the securities class action alleging misstatements about wildfire mitigation was settled for $47.75 million with preliminary approval in March 2026 and a final approval hearing set for August 13, 2026, so the last procedural step had not closed as of the start of that month. The most pessimistic published target is $11.75, -5.9% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

Hawaiian Electric Industries is the holding company for the regulated utility serving about 95% of Hawaii's population, on every island county except Kauai.

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (A capital plan that finally grows the rate base) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the obvious risk is another fire) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

Essentially one thing: Hawaiian Electric, the regulated electric utility serving Oahu, Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Hawaii Island, covering about 95% of the state's population and roughly 470,000 customer accounts. HEI divested 90.1% of American Savings Bank at the end of 2024 at a $450 million valuation, retaining a 9.9% stake, and wound down its Pacific Current infrastructure arm through 2025. Trailing revenue of about $3.1 billion is now almost entirely regulated utility revenue.

No. The dividend was suspended after the August 2023 Lahaina fire, and the last payment was $0.36 a share in September 2023. Before that, HE had been a long-standing income holding with a decades-long payment history. Capital is currently committed to four annual $479 million settlement installments and a capital program stepping up toward $625 million to $750 million in 2026, so any reinstatement would follow the settlement schedule and credit repair rather than lead them.

The global settlement resolves tort claims from the August 8, 2023 windstorms and fires for more than $4 billion across several defendants, with roughly $1.99 billion from Hawaiian Electric, about $873 million from Kamehameha Schools, about $808 million from the state, and roughly $300 million from telecom and landowner parties. The final condition to payment was satisfied on April 10, 2026, when insurers stipulated to dismiss their subrogation appeals, and HEI authorized the first of four equal annual installments of about $479 million that month. Distributions to victims from the trust began flowing in mid-2026.