Is HGTY a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on The Markel transition and full premium retention, with revenue (ttm) at ~$1.44B. The bear case rests on the 2026 reported numbers are hard to read: guidance calls for total revenue down ~11%-12% and a net loss of ~$41 million to $51 million on ~$190 million of transitional costs, so anyone underwriting the stock is relying on adjusted EBITDA and written premium rather than GAAP earnings. Analysts covering it are spread from $11.00 to $15.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The 2026 reported numbers are hard to read: guidance calls for total revenue down ~11%-12% and a net loss of ~$41 million to $51 million on ~$190 million of transitional costs, so anyone underwriting the stock is relying on adjusted EBITDA and written premium rather than GAAP earnings. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $11.00, -4.8% from the $11.55 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

The Markel transition and full premium retention. From January 2026 Hagerty assumes 100% of the premium under a fronting structure instead of ceding most of it, which lifted Q1 earned premium ~42% to ~$240 million while commission and fee revenue fell ~84%. The most optimistic analyst target on HGTY is $15.00, +29.9% from the $11.55 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

The 2026 reported numbers are hard to read: guidance calls for total revenue down ~11%-12% and a net loss of ~$41 million to $51 million on ~$190 million of transitional costs, so anyone underwriting the stock is relying on adjusted EBITDA and written premium rather than GAAP earnings. Retaining 100% of premium also means retaining 100% of the underwriting risk, and a bad catastrophe year (collector cars concentrate in flood and hurricane-exposed regions) would now hit Hagerty directly rather than a reinsurer. The underlying collector car market is soft outside the top end, with the Hagerty Market Rating starting 2026 near a 15-year low and sub-$250,000 values broadly falling, which pressures both Marketplace take rates and insured values over time. The share structure is concentrated: State Farm holds a majority of Class A, Markel holds a large Class V and preferred position, and the founding family controls voting through Class V, leaving public holders with limited influence and a thin float. Finally, the forward earnings multiple is distorted by the transition year, so headline valuation ratios are unusually unreliable here. The most pessimistic published target is $11.00, -4.8% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

Hagerty, Inc.

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (The Markel transition and full premium retention) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the 2026 reported numbers are hard to read: guidance calls for total revenue down ~11%-12% and a net loss of ~$41 million to $51 million on ~$190 million of transitional costs, so anyone underwriting the stock is relying on adjusted EBITDA and written premium rather than GAAP earnings) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

Hagerty, Inc. is a specialty insurance provider and automotive enthusiast brand focused on classic and collector vehicles. It writes agreed-value policies covering ~2.9 million vehicles, runs the Hagerty Drivers Club membership (~940,000 paid members), and operates Hagerty Marketplace for collector car auctions, classifieds, financing, and valuation data.

Effective January 1, 2026, Hagerty moved to a fronting arrangement and now retains 100% of the premium it writes rather than ceding most of it to Markel. That eliminates the large commission revenue line on consolidation while boosting earned premium, so total revenue is guided down ~11%-12% for 2026 even as written premium grows ~15%-16%.

The transition carries roughly $190 million of one-time costs, mainly deferred ceding commissions paid to Markel on policies written before January 1, 2026. Full-year guidance is a net loss of ~$41 million to $51 million alongside adjusted EBITDA of ~$236 million to $247 million, so the loss reflects the accounting reset rather than a collapse in operations.