Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Houlihan Lokey (HLI) right now is Restructuring ballast: Houlihan Lokey runs one of the largest restructuring advisory practices in the world, consistently ranked in the top tier alongside PJT Partners and Evercore. Revenue (FY2026, ended Mar 2026) is ~$2.62B. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is advisory revenue is inherently lumpy and tied to deal completions, so a prolonged M&A slowdown or credit freeze can pressure results even with the restructuring hedge. No one can predict where HLI trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Houlihan Lokey (HLI) higher?
1. Restructuring ballast
Houlihan Lokey runs one of the largest restructuring advisory practices in the world, consistently ranked in the top tier alongside PJT Partners and Evercore. That business tends to accelerate exactly when M&A slows, giving the firm a natural hedge that most advisory banks lack.
2. M&A and capital-markets recovery
Corporate Finance is the biggest revenue driver, and a rebound in dealmaking and sponsor-driven activity flows directly to fees. Fiscal 2026 revenue rose about 10 percent to roughly $2.62 billion as deal conditions improved, and continued normalization in private-equity activity would extend that.
3. Capital-light, fee-based model
The firm earns advisory fees rather than trading or lending, so it carries little balance-sheet risk and converts revenue to cash efficiently. That supports a rising dividend (raised about 17 percent to $0.70 per quarter in May 2026) plus buybacks.
4. Scale and diversification through acquisition
Houlihan Lokey has built breadth across sectors, geographies, and product lines partly through tuck-in acquisitions, expanding its valuation and consulting franchise and deepening industry coverage that helps it win mid-market and larger mandates.
What could weigh on HLI?
Advisory revenue is inherently lumpy and tied to deal completions, so a prolonged M&A slowdown or credit freeze can pressure results even with the restructuring hedge. The business depends heavily on retaining senior bankers, and competition for talent is intense against boutiques and bulge brackets alike. Fees can swing quarter to quarter based on the timing of transaction closings, making near-term earnings hard to forecast. The stock has traded at a premium multiple, which leaves less room for error if growth disappoints. Regulatory scrutiny of large restructurings and M&A, plus macro shocks to capital markets, are additional external factors outside the firm's control.
Where HLI trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are HLI's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for HLI as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a HLI forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the HLI guide and whether HLI is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the HLI outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Houlihan Lokey (HLI) is Restructuring ballast, with revenue (fy2026, ended mar 2026) at ~$2.62B. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is advisory revenue is inherently lumpy and tied to deal completions, so a prolonged M&A slowdown or credit freeze can pressure results even with the restructuring hedge. No one can predict the price, so treat any HLI forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Build a basket around HLI with Walnut
Use Houlihan Lokey as one constituent in a thematic basket Walnut's AI helps you assemble. Describe a thesis you believe in, the AI proposes the holdings and weights, and you approve before any broker order.
FAQ
What is the forecast for Houlihan Lokey (HLI)?
+
No one can reliably predict where HLI will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Houlihan Lokey higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive HLI higher?
+
The main growth drivers are Restructuring ballast; M&A and capital-markets recovery; Capital-light, fee-based model. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to HLI?
+
Advisory revenue is inherently lumpy and tied to deal completions, so a prolonged M&A slowdown or credit freeze can pressure results even with the restructuring hedge. The business depends heavily on retaining senior bankers, and competition for talent is intense against boutiques and bulge brackets alike. Fees can swing quarter to quarter based on the timing of transaction closings, making near-term earnings hard to forecast. The stock has traded at a premium multiple, which leaves less room for error if growth disappoints. Regulatory scrutiny of large restructurings and M&A, plus macro shocks to capital markets, are additional external factors outside the firm's control.
Will HLI stock go up in 2026?
+
Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Houlihan Lokey's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is HLI a buy?
+
That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the HLI "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
How did Houlihan Lokey perform in fiscal 2026?
+
For the fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, revenue was roughly $2.62 billion, up about 10 percent from the prior year, with net income near $426 million and diluted EPS around $6.22 (adjusted EPS about $7.56).
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.