Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Stock Price & How to Invest

Harley-Davidson is the storied American motorcycle company best known for its heavyweight cruiser and touring bikes and a brand that has become a cultural symbol. The business runs in three parts. Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HDMC) designs, makes, and sells motorcycles along with parts, accessories, apparel, and licensed merchandise, and it is by far the largest revenue driver. Harley-Davidson Financial Services (HDFS) is the captive finance arm that provides retail loans to buyers and wholesale floor-plan financing to dealers, earning interest and fee income. LiveWire is the company's electric-motorcycle unit, publicly listed separately (ticker LVWR) but majority-owned and consolidated by Harley, and it remains a money-losing early-stage venture.

The investment picture is a turnaround. Full-year 2025 revenue was roughly $4.47 billion, down about 14% from $5.19 billion in 2024, with diluted EPS of about $2.78, as HDMC shipments and revenue fell while the company worked down dealer inventory. New tariffs, heavier pricing incentives, and a shipment-mix shift have squeezed motorcycle margins, and Q1 2026 showed the strain with consolidated revenue down about 12% and operating income down roughly 85%. A leadership change (Artie Starrs became CEO on October 1, 2025) brought a fresh strategy branded WireForward, unveiled in May 2026. The second quarter of 2026 was steadier: revenue of about $1.10 billion was down roughly 5.9% year over year, a much smaller decline than in Q1, net income was about $79.8 million, and EPS of $0.75 beat the ~$0.64 consensus. On October 5, 2026 the shares jumped about 10% after Citigroup upgraded the stock, describing a multi-year retail growth story. At about $27.20 on October 16, 2026 HOG is up ~31.8% year to date from depressed levels, with a market cap near $2.8 billion, and it pays a modest dividend (yield ~2.7%), so results depend on whether the reset can revive demand and rebuild margins against a backdrop of aging core riders. Third-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for October 29, with analysts expecting EPS of about $0.48 on roughly $1.07 billion of revenue.

Harley-Davidson sells expensive discretionary products, so demand is cyclical and sensitive to interest rates, consumer confidence, and recessions. Its core North American rider base is aging, and attracting younger and more diverse riders has proven difficult, which pressures long-term volume. New or higher tariffs, pricing incentives, and shipment mix have compressed motorcycle margins, and Q1 2026 operating income fell roughly 85%. Analysts expect full-year 2026 EPS of only about $0.67, with a loss in the fourth quarter, before a rebound to about $1.97 in 2027, so the recovery is still a forecast. After a ~32% year-to-date gain the stock trades close to the ~$27.90 average analyst target. HDFS carries credit risk if loan losses rise in a weaker economy, and LiveWire continues to lose money. The strategy has also seen repeated resets and leadership turnover, so execution risk around the new WireForward plan is real.

10 analysts publish price targets on HOG, averaging $27.90 against a $26.76 price as of October 2026, or +4.3%. The published targets run from $17.00 to $33.00, a moderate spread, and the ratings split 6 buy, 7 hold, 2 sell. Over the last six months there have been 12 raises and 0 cuts among the published actions. A price target is what an analyst published on a date, not a prediction, and sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market.

Read the full HOG forecast and price target for the target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted.

We give no verdict on Harley-Davidson, Inc.. Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested at all, so here is the strongest version of each.

The case for buying. New leadership and the WireForward reset. Artie Starrs, formerly CEO of Topgolf Callaway Brands, took over as CEO on October 1, 2025 and unveiled a new strategy called WireForward alongside the Q1 2026 results in May 2026. The most optimistic published target, $33.00, assumes this works close to its best case.

The case against. Harley-Davidson sells expensive discretionary products, so demand is cyclical and sensitive to interest rates, consumer confidence, and recessions. The most pessimistic target, $17.00, is roughly what HOG is worth if this bites instead.

Read the full bull and bear case on HOG, including what would have to change to break either one. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

No. Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) has not split its stock in the last 10 years. That is a statement about the window we check rather than about the company’s entire history, so an older split is possible. It also matters less than it once did: fractional shares mean a high price per share no longer keeps smaller investors out, which removed most of the practical reason to split.

A simple financial snapshot. These are approximations and refresh quarterly; for current figures see Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s investor relations page or your broker.

• Revenue (FY2025): ~$4.47 billion (down ~14% YoY)
• Q2 2026 revenue: ~$1.10 billion (down ~5.9% YoY)
• Q2 2026 EPS: ~$0.75 vs ~$0.64 estimate; net income ~$79.8 million
• Net income (TTM): ~$203 million; profit margin ~4.8%
• P/E ratio (trailing / forward): ~15x / ~14x
• Market cap: ~$2.8 billion
• Dividend yield: ~2.7%

HOG trades as a small-cap turnaround at about 15x trailing and 14x forward earnings, roughly 0.9x book value, after rallying ~32% in 2026 from multi-year lows. Reported figures are noisy because a 2025 loan-asset sale reshaped HDFS revenue, a fourth-quarter 2025 loss of roughly $279 million weighs on trailing results, and LiveWire and tariff pressures weigh on the consolidated picture. The October 29 third-quarter report (consensus EPS ~$0.48) is the next check on whether the WireForward plan is gaining traction.

Other names that sit close to HOG: same theme, named as a direct competitor, or held beside it in the same funds. Each entry says which. Worth a look if you are thinking about diversification within a thesis rather than concentration on one ticker.

There are three common ways to get HOG exposure. Buy shares (or fractional shares) directly at any major broker. Hold an ETF that includes it, which spreads the position across many companies. Or build it into a focused thematic portfolio, so HOG sits alongside other stocks that express the same thesis.

Walnut takes the portfolio route. Describe a thesis where HOG fits (for example “AI infrastructure” or “dividend-growth large-caps”) and the AI proposes 5 to 6 constituents with target weights. You review the plan and fund it through your own broker when you're ready.

New to this? Start with how to invest in stocks, see how to analyze a stock with AI, or compare the best AI stock analyzers.

Harley-Davidson is a cyclical, brand-heavy discretionary stock in the middle of a strategy reset, where the investment picture hinges on whether new leadership can stabilize motorcycle demand and margins while HDFS and the LiveWire EV losses run in the background. A second-quarter 2026 beat and an October Citi upgrade have lifted the stock off its lows, but it still trades at about 14x forward earnings with Q3 results due October 29.

Whether HOG is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, what would have to go right, and the risks in is HOG a buy or a sell?, and where the stock could go from here in the HOG stock forecast.

For income investors, whether HOG pays a dividend and how the payout looks is covered in does HOG pay a dividend? And to weigh HOG against a peer, read the full side-by-side comparisons: HOG vs PII and HOG vs BC.