ING (ING) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving ING (ING) right now is Net interest income and rate normalization: The bulk of ING's income comes from the spread between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits. Revenue (TTM, total income) is ~$24B (roughly 22-23B euros). If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is as a deposit-funded lender, ING's earnings are sensitive to European Central Bank rate cuts, which compress net interest margins. No one can predict where ING trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive ING (ING) higher?
1. Net interest income and rate normalization
The bulk of ING's income comes from the spread between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits. Total income reached roughly 5.7 billion euros in the first quarter of 2026, up about 8% year over year, helped by net interest income in the high-3 to low-4 billion euro range per quarter. As ECB rates stabilize, the swing from margin expansion toward loan-growth and fee-driven income becomes the key earnings lever.
2. Capital returns (dividends and buybacks)
ING has leaned into a shareholder-return story, lifting its dividend and running recurring share buyback programs supported by a strong CET1 capital ratio. The ADR has carried a trailing dividend yield in the roughly 4% to 5% range. Continued excess-capital distribution is a central part of the thesis for income-oriented holders.
3. Digital retail and geographic diversification
ING is strongest in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany, and runs digital-first retail operations across selected European markets. It prioritizes organic growth by simplifying products and driving mobile customer acquisition to add primary-banking relationships, which spreads risk across several national economies rather than one.
4. Fee income and cost discipline
With interest-margin tailwinds fading, growth in fee-based income (payments, lending, and markets services) and control of cost inflation matter more to the earnings trajectory. Management has pointed to recovering loan growth, fee expansion, and modest credit losses as offsets to normalizing net interest margins.
What could weigh on ING?
As a deposit-funded lender, ING's earnings are sensitive to European Central Bank rate cuts, which compress net interest margins. A weaker European economy could raise loan-loss provisions and slow credit demand across its home markets. Being euro-denominated, the ADR carries euro-to-dollar currency risk for US investors, so a stronger dollar can erode returns even when the bank performs well. It also faces stiff competition from larger European banks (BNP Paribas, Santander) and domestic rivals (ABN AMRO, Rabobank), plus ongoing regulatory, capital, and compliance requirements that can affect payouts and profitability.
Where ING trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are ING's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for ING as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a ING forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the ING guide and whether ING is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the ING outlook
The bottom line: what is driving ING (ING) is Net interest income and rate normalization, with revenue (ttm, total income) at ~$24B (roughly 22-23B euros). If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is as a deposit-funded lender, ING's earnings are sensitive to European Central Bank rate cuts, which compress net interest margins. No one can predict the price, so treat any ING forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
More on ING
- ING stock guide (what the company does, ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits)
- Is ING a buy? (the case for, the risks, and a framework to decide)
- Does ING pay a dividend?
Build a basket around ING with Walnut
Use ING as one constituent in a thematic basket Walnut's AI helps you assemble. Describe a thesis you believe in, the AI proposes the holdings and weights, and you approve before any broker order.
FAQ
What is the forecast for ING (ING)?
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No one can reliably predict where ING will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push ING higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive ING higher?
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The main growth drivers are Net interest income and rate normalization; Capital returns (dividends and buybacks); Digital retail and geographic diversification. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to ING?
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As a deposit-funded lender, ING's earnings are sensitive to European Central Bank rate cuts, which compress net interest margins. A weaker European economy could raise loan-loss provisions and slow credit demand across its home markets. Being euro-denominated, the ADR carries euro-to-dollar currency risk for US investors, so a stronger dollar can erode returns even when the bank performs well. It also faces stiff competition from larger European banks (BNP Paribas, Santander) and domestic rivals (ABN AMRO, Rabobank), plus ongoing regulatory, capital, and compliance requirements that can affect payouts and profitability.
Will ING stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. ING's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is ING a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the ING "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.