Is LTM a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Capacity growth funded by a renewed fleet, with revenue (ttm) at ~$15.9B; FY2026 guidance ~$17.3B to ~$17.7B. The bear case rests on fuel is the dominant variable: a Middle East supply disruption nearly doubled LATAM's fuel-related costs year over year in the second quarter of 2026 and cut operating margin from ~12.9% to ~5.4%, and the group carries no permanent hedge that removes that exposure. Analysts covering it are spread from $69.00 to $80.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. Fuel is the dominant variable: a Middle East supply disruption nearly doubled LATAM's fuel-related costs year over year in the second quarter of 2026 and cut operating margin from ~12.9% to ~5.4%, and the group carries no permanent hedge that removes that exposure. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $69.00, +32.0% from the $52.26 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Capacity growth funded by a renewed fleet. Management guides to ~9% to ~10% ASK growth for 2026 on ~41 aircraft deliveries, taking the operating fleet from ~383 to ~410 by year end. The most optimistic analyst target on LTM is $80.00, +53.1% from the $52.26 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

Fuel is the dominant variable: a Middle East supply disruption nearly doubled LATAM's fuel-related costs year over year in the second quarter of 2026 and cut operating margin from ~12.9% to ~5.4%, and the group carries no permanent hedge that removes that exposure. Currency cuts the other way, because most revenue is earned in Brazilian reais, Chilean pesos and Peruvian soles while fuel, aircraft leases and most debt are denominated in US dollars, so a weaker real both compresses local margins and shrinks reported dollar results. Competition in Brazil against Gol and Azul, and against JetSMART and Sky in Spanish-speaking South America, keeps domestic fares tied to capacity discipline the group does not set alone. Balance sheet and capital-intensity risk remain real even after the restructuring, with ~$9.0 billion of total debt, continuous aircraft capital commitments, and a delivery schedule that depends on Airbus, Boeing and Embraer meeting dates. Political, regulatory and consumer-litigation exposure across six operating jurisdictions rounds it out, including a US consumer class action over the airline's no-show ticket-cancellation policy, and post-reorganization holders have repeatedly sold ADS into the market through secondary offerings, which adds supply that is unrelated to operating results. The most pessimistic published target is $69.00, +32.0% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

LATAM Airlines Group is South America's largest airline group, flying domestic Brazil, Spanish-speaking South America and international routes.

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Capacity growth funded by a renewed fleet) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (fuel is the dominant variable: a Middle East supply disruption nearly doubled LATAM's fuel-related costs year over year in the second quarter of 2026 and cut operating margin from ~12.9% to ~5.4%, and the group carries no permanent hedge that removes that exposure) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

LTM is an American depositary share, not a common share. Each ADS represents 2,000 shares of LATAM Airlines Group common stock, which trade separately on the Santiago Stock Exchange under the same LTM symbol. Getting the ratio wrong is the most common way to misstate LTM's per-share earnings, dividends or valuation by three orders of magnitude.

Yes. LATAM filed for Chapter 11 protection in the Southern District of New York in May 2020 and emerged on November 3, 2022, funded by roughly $800 million of new equity and about $4.6 billion of new convertible notes. Pre-bankruptcy equity was heavily diluted, so historical per-share figures from before the reorganization are not comparable to today's.

The ADS is listed on the New York Stock Exchange, not on OTC markets. It relisted there on July 25, 2024 at $24.00 per ADS after a secondary offering, having been delisted in 2020 during the bankruptcy. Because it is NYSE-listed, it can be held in an ordinary US brokerage or retirement account like any domestic stock, subject to the usual ADS depositary fees.