Is MAC a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Deleveraging toward the 6x goal, with revenue (ttm) at ~$1.03B (Q2 2026: ~$249.7M, first half: ~$491.2M). The bear case rests on dilution is the most concrete cost of the turnaround: two 2026 equity offerings plus a $675 million exchangeable note materially raised the share and unit count, which is why FFO per share has barely moved even as total FFO grew. Analysts covering it are spread from $19.00 to $30.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. Dilution is the most concrete cost of the turnaround: two 2026 equity offerings plus a $675 million exchangeable note materially raised the share and unit count, which is why FFO per share has barely moved even as total FFO grew. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $19.00, -23.1% from the $24.71 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Deleveraging toward the 6x goal. Reducing leverage is the stated centerpiece of the Path Forward Plan, and progress has been measurable: net debt to adjusted EBITDA fell to about 7.3x in the second quarter of 2026, down more than 1.5 turns since the plan began, and lands near 6.8x pro forma for the forward equity proceeds. The most optimistic analyst target on MAC is $30.00, +21.4% from the $24.71 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

Dilution is the most concrete cost of the turnaround: two 2026 equity offerings plus a $675 million exchangeable note materially raised the share and unit count, which is why FFO per share has barely moved even as total FFO grew. Tenant credit remains a live drag, with Forever 21's liquidation alone releasing about 570,000 square feet across Macerich centers and Claire's filing again in 2025, so backfilling vacancy is a permanent operating expense rather than a one-time event. Property-level debt still bites: the $76 million loan secured by Twenty Ninth Street in Boulder sat in default after its February maturity, and while a single mortgage default is not a corporate solvency issue, it shows the asset-by-asset workout is unfinished. GAAP net losses persist and the dividend, at $0.17 per quarter or roughly $0.68 annualized, was cut deeply from pre-2020 levels and is covered by FFO rather than by earnings. Finally, the valuation itself is a risk: near 16 times trailing FFO and roughly 13 times the midpoint of the company's own 2028 target, the shares already assume the plan lands close to schedule, so a missed disposition, a rate move, or a weaker consumer would hit the multiple and the estimates at the same time. The most pessimistic published target is $19.00, -23.1% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

The Macerich Company is a REIT that owns, leases and redevelops Class A regional town centers in dense, higher-income US markets.

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Deleveraging toward the 6x goal) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (dilution is the most concrete cost of the turnaround: two 2026 equity offerings plus a $675 million exchangeable note materially raised the share and unit count, which is why FFO per share has barely moved even as total FFO grew) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

MAC is The Macerich Company, a retail real estate investment trust listed on the New York Stock Exchange. It should not be confused with MAC Cosmetics (a brand owned by Estee Lauder, not separately listed) or with Macquarie Infrastructure, which used the same ticker years ago. Macerich remains fully listed with no delisting determination, and it filed a Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026.

The board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per common share payable in late September 2026, which annualizes to roughly $0.68 and works out near a 2.8% yield at about $24.50. Measured against roughly $1.40 to $1.50 of annualized FFO as adjusted, coverage runs a little above 2x, which is conservative for a REIT and reflects the decision to direct cash toward deleveraging and redevelopment. The payout was cut sharply during the 2020 to 2021 period and has not been restored to its old level.

Real estate depreciation is a large non-cash charge that runs through a REIT's income statement even when buildings are holding or gaining value, which is why Macerich reports a GAAP net loss of about $0.10 per share in a quarter it also earned $0.35 per share of FFO as adjusted. Funds from operations adds depreciation and amortization back and strips out property sale gains, giving a closer read on recurring cash generation. Because REITs must distribute most of their taxable income, dividend coverage is also judged against FFO, not EPS.