Is NEXA a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Zinc and silver prices are doing most of the work, with revenue (ttm) at ~$3.46 billion trailing twelve months, up ~24% versus ~$3.00 billion in fiscal 2025 and ~$2.77 billion in 2024; second-quarter 2026 net revenues ~$908 million (up ~28% year over year), first-half ~$1,796 million (up ~34%). The bear case rests on the dominant risk is that essentially all of the 2026 improvement traces to metal prices Nexa does not set: a reversion in zinc toward the ~$2,850 per tonne assumption that underlies its own cost guidance, or in silver from ~$73 per ounce, would compress a business whose smelting segment still earned only a ~11.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter. Analysts covering it are spread from $13.50 to $16.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The dominant risk is that essentially all of the 2026 improvement traces to metal prices Nexa does not set: a reversion in zinc toward the ~$2,850 per tonne assumption that underlies its own cost guidance, or in silver from ~$73 per ounce, would compress a business whose smelting segment still earned only a ~11.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $13.50, -12.3% from the $15.40 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Zinc and silver prices are doing most of the work. LME zinc averaged ~$3,466 per tonne (~$1.57 per pound) in the second quarter of 2026, up ~31% year over year, and ~$3,351 per tonne across the first half, up ~22%. The most optimistic analyst target on NEXA is $16.00, +3.9% from the $15.40 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

The dominant risk is that essentially all of the 2026 improvement traces to metal prices Nexa does not set: a reversion in zinc toward the ~$2,850 per tonne assumption that underlies its own cost guidance, or in silver from ~$73 per ounce, would compress a business whose smelting segment still earned only a ~11.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter. Operational fragility is not theoretical either, since two fires occurred in a single quarter (Cajamarquilla's casting house in May, costing roughly ~7,000 tonnes of second-quarter refined zinc, and the Três Marias roasting-area cooling towers on May 19), and the Cajamarquilla root-cause and insurance loss adjustment were still open. Jurisdiction and permitting add a second layer: the Cerro Pasco Integration Project's estimated capex rose from ~$138 million to ~$180 million with the tailings pumping system slipping to ~1Q27 and shaft repowering deferred to ~2031, while the El Porvenir and Atacocha environmental study modifications remain under SENACE evaluation in Peru with approval expected in ~1Q27, and Brazilian real appreciation inflates US-dollar-reported costs at the Brazilian operations. On governance, VSA holds ~64.68% of a company incorporated in Luxembourg and listed only in New York, which leaves the ~35.32% public float (~46.8 million shares) with limited practical influence and no US-style proxy machinery, since Nexa reports as a foreign private issuer on Form 20-F and 6-K rather than 10-Q. Finally, the shares at ~$15.40 sit modestly above the ~$14.88 average target of the ~8 analysts covering the name, and any resolution of the Boliden discussions could reprice the stock in either direction independently of how the mines perform. The most pessimistic published target is $13.50, -12.3% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

Nexa Resources is a Luxembourg-incorporated zinc miner and smelter running five mines and three smelters across Brazil and Peru, majority owned by Brazil's Votorantim.

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Zinc and silver prices are doing most of the work) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the dominant risk is that essentially all of the 2026 improvement traces to metal prices Nexa does not set: a reversion in zinc toward the ~$2,850 per tonne assumption that underlies its own cost guidance, or in silver from ~$73 per ounce, would compress a business whose smelting segment still earned only a ~11.4% Adjusted EBITDA margin in the quarter) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

Nexa Resources S.A. is an integrated zinc miner and smelter incorporated in Luxembourg with operations in Brazil and Peru. It owns five mines: Cerro Lindo, El Porvenir and Atacocha in Peru, plus Vazante and Aripuanã in Brazil. It also owns three smelters: Cajamarquilla near Lima, which is the only operating zinc smelter in Peru and was ranked fifth largest globally by volume in 2025, and Três Marias and Juiz de Fora in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Zinc was ~46.9% of mined metal production in 2025 on a zinc-equivalent basis, with copper, lead, silver and some gold produced as by-products. The Morro Agudo Complex was sold on April 30, 2024 and is no longer part of the portfolio.

Not as of late August 2026, and the distinction matters. On July 2, 2026 Nexa disclosed that it had been advised of discussions between its controlling shareholder Votorantim S.A. and Sweden's Boliden AB about a potential acquisition of Votorantim's stake. In its August 5, 2026 results release the company stated that whether any agreements will be entered into, and the timing and terms of any such agreements, remain uncertain. No definitive agreement, tender offer or going-private filing has appeared on Nexa's SEC docket, and management reaffirmed rather than withdrew 2026 guidance. What did change is the credit rating: S&P placed the BBB- issuer credit rating on CreditWatch with negative implications on July 3, 2026, saying explicitly that the action reflected the potential change of control and not operating or financial performance.

Votorantim S.A., the Brazilian industrial group that has held the position since February 26, 2014, owned ~85,655,128 shares or ~64.68% of the ~132,438,611 shares outstanding as of March 26, 2026. The public holds the remaining ~46,783,483 shares, or ~35.32%. There is no dual-class structure, so the control follows directly from the size of the stake. Because Nexa is incorporated in Luxembourg and listed only on the NYSE, minority holders do not have the US proxy protections that apply to domestic issuers, and the company files annual reports on Form 20-F and interim reports on Form 6-K rather than 10-K and 10-Q. A float of under ~47 million shares also means the stock can move a long way on modest volume.