National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) right now is CenterPoint Ohio utility acquisition: NFG agreed to buy CenterPoint's Ohio natural gas utility business for about $2.62 billion, adding roughly 335,000 customers and 5,900 miles of pipeline. Revenue (TTM) is ~$2.2B. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is upstream earnings are directly exposed to volatile natural gas prices, and a sustained downturn below the assumed NYMEX levels would pressure results and cash flow. No one can predict where NFG trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) higher?
1. CenterPoint Ohio utility acquisition
NFG agreed to buy CenterPoint's Ohio natural gas utility business for about $2.62 billion, adding roughly 335,000 customers and 5,900 miles of pipeline. The deal, which received Ohio regulatory approval in mid-2026 and is expected to close in the fourth calendar quarter, would roughly double the utility rate base to around $3.2 billion and expand NFG's regulated, lower-risk earnings base beyond New York and Pennsylvania.
2. Appalachian production and gas prices
The Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment drives much of the earnings swing, with fiscal 2026 production guided to roughly 425 to 440 Bcf. Higher natural gas price realizations lifted upstream adjusted EPS about 21% year over year in the second quarter, so realized prices and hedging remain a central profit lever.
3. Regulated pipeline and utility investment
Continued spending on system modernization in the utility and expansion of the pipeline and storage network provides rate-base growth and steadier cash flow. Utility net income rose modestly year over year as regulated investment programs supported revenue, underpinning the dividend.
4. Dividend-growth track record
NFG is among the market's longest-tenured dividend growers, raising its quarterly payout about 4% to 55.5 cents in 2026. Free cash flow generation, roughly $160 million year to date through the second quarter, supports both the dividend and reinvestment.
What could weigh on NFG?
Upstream earnings are directly exposed to volatile natural gas prices, and a sustained downturn below the assumed NYMEX levels would pressure results and cash flow. The large CenterPoint Ohio acquisition carries integration, financing, and leverage risk, funded partly by a promissory note and equity, and regulated returns depend on favorable rate-case outcomes across three states. Utility earnings are subject to weather, customer growth, and regulatory decisions, while the upstream business faces well productivity, drilling cost, and environmental and permitting risks. Rising interest rates raise financing costs for a capital-intensive business.
Where NFG trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are NFG's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for NFG as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a NFG forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the NFG guide and whether NFG is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the NFG outlook
The bottom line: what is driving National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is CenterPoint Ohio utility acquisition, with revenue (ttm) at ~$2.2B. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is upstream earnings are directly exposed to volatile natural gas prices, and a sustained downturn below the assumed NYMEX levels would pressure results and cash flow. No one can predict the price, so treat any NFG forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG)?
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No one can reliably predict where NFG will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push National Fuel Gas Company higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive NFG higher?
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The main growth drivers are CenterPoint Ohio utility acquisition; Appalachian production and gas prices; Regulated pipeline and utility investment. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to NFG?
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Upstream earnings are directly exposed to volatile natural gas prices, and a sustained downturn below the assumed NYMEX levels would pressure results and cash flow. The large CenterPoint Ohio acquisition carries integration, financing, and leverage risk, funded partly by a promissory note and equity, and regulated returns depend on favorable rate-case outcomes across three states. Utility earnings are subject to weather, customer growth, and regulatory decisions, while the upstream business faces well productivity, drilling cost, and environmental and permitting risks. Rising interest rates raise financing costs for a capital-intensive business.
Will NFG stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. National Fuel Gas Company's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is NFG a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the NFG "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
How did NFG perform in fiscal 2026 so far?
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In its fiscal second quarter (reported April 2026), NFG posted revenue of about $858 million, up roughly 18% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $2.71, up 13%. It raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to roughly $7.45 to $7.75.
What drives NFG's earnings?
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Upstream gas production and realized natural gas prices drive much of the earnings swing, while the regulated pipeline and utility segments provide steadier cash flow. Higher gas price realizations and continued regulated investment both contributed to 2026 results.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.