ONEOK (OKE) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving ONEOK (OKE) right now is Fee-Based Revenue Durability: Approximately 90% of ONEOK's 2026 earnings are expected to come from fee-based contracts, insulating cash flow from short-term swings in natural gas and NGL prices. Revenue (FY 2025) is ~$33.6 billion. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is oNEOK's Net Debt to EBITDA stands at approximately 4x, which is elevated even by midstream standards, and the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of approximately $7.9 to $8.3 billion was viewed by some analysts as essentially flat versus 2025, raising questions about near-term earnings momentum. No one can predict where OKE trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive ONEOK (OKE) higher?
Fee-Based Revenue Durability
Approximately 90% of ONEOK's 2026 earnings are expected to come from fee-based contracts, insulating cash flow from short-term swings in natural gas and NGL prices. Long-term minimum-volume commitments underpin revenue visibility. This structure supports consistent dividend payments and debt reduction without requiring commodity prices to cooperate.
Acquisition Synergy Capture
ONEOK captured approximately $475 million in cumulative synergies from the EnLink and Medallion acquisitions through year-end 2025, and the integrated system continues to generate operational efficiencies. The full ownership of EnLink, completed in February 2025, consolidates control over a large Permian and Mid-Continent asset base. As integration matures, incremental synergies and cross-selling of capacity should expand margins further.
Natural Gas and NGL Volume Growth
Rocky Mountain region NGL raw feed throughput volumes grew 15% year over year in 2025, and natural gas processed volumes across the system are guided to a range of approximately 5,410 to 6,170 million cubic feet per day in 2026. Growing use of longer lateral well completions is expected to drive higher per-well throughput for ONEOK's gathering systems. Structural demand drivers including LNG exports, industrial use, and power generation for AI data centers support a multi-year volume growth case.
Deleveraging and Capital Discipline
ONEOK retired approximately $3.1 billion of long-term debt during 2025, demonstrating a firm commitment to balance sheet repair after its acquisition spree. A $2 billion share repurchase program is also active, returning capital alongside the quarterly dividend. Continued free cash flow generation, estimated at approximately $2.5 billion for fiscal 2025, provides flexibility to simultaneously pay down debt and invest in organic growth projects.
What could weigh on OKE?
ONEOK's Net Debt to EBITDA stands at approximately 4x, which is elevated even by midstream standards, and the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of approximately $7.9 to $8.3 billion was viewed by some analysts as essentially flat versus 2025, raising questions about near-term earnings momentum. A material slowdown in U.S. producer activity, particularly in the Permian Basin or Rocky Mountain region, could reduce throughput volumes and stress the fee-based model. Commodity-linked portions of earnings remain exposed to NGL price cycles, and further large acquisitions or integration missteps could delay the deleveraging trajectory. Regulatory changes affecting pipeline operations or carbon emissions standards represent an additional longer-term uncertainty.
How to think about a OKE forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the OKE guide and whether OKE is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the OKE outlook
The bottom line: what is driving ONEOK (OKE) is Fee-Based Revenue Durability, with revenue (fy 2025) at ~$33.6 billion. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is oNEOK's Net Debt to EBITDA stands at approximately 4x, which is elevated even by midstream standards, and the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of approximately $7.9 to $8.3 billion was viewed by some analysts as essentially flat versus 2025, raising questions about near-term earnings momentum. No one can predict the price, so treat any OKE forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for ONEOK (OKE)?
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No one can reliably predict where OKE will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push ONEOK higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive OKE higher?
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The main growth drivers are Fee-Based Revenue Durability; Acquisition Synergy Capture; Natural Gas and NGL Volume Growth. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to OKE?
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ONEOK's Net Debt to EBITDA stands at approximately 4x, which is elevated even by midstream standards, and the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of approximately $7.9 to $8.3 billion was viewed by some analysts as essentially flat versus 2025, raising questions about near-term earnings momentum. A material slowdown in U.S. producer activity, particularly in the Permian Basin or Rocky Mountain region, could reduce throughput volumes and stress the fee-based model. Commodity-linked portions of earnings remain exposed to NGL price cycles, and further large acquisitions or integration missteps could delay the deleveraging trajectory. Regulatory changes affecting pipeline operations or carbon emissions standards represent an additional longer-term uncertainty.
Will OKE stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. ONEOK's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is OKE a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the OKE "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
How has ONEOK grown so quickly?
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ONEOK's rapid revenue growth, from approximately $21.7 billion in 2024 to approximately $33.6 billion in 2025, stems primarily from a multi-year acquisition strategy. The company completed the merger with Magellan Midstream in 2023, acquired Medallion Midstream in late 2024, and completed full ownership of EnLink Midstream in early 2025. These deals expanded its geographic footprint, pipeline capacity, and processing volumes substantially.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.