Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Old National Bancorp (ONB) right now is Growth through acquisition and scale: Old National has expanded aggressively, from the 2021 merger of equals with First Midwest to the May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, which pushed total assets to roughly $70 billion. Revenue (net interest income + fees, FY2025) is ~$2.9 billion. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. No one can predict where ONB trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Old National Bancorp (ONB) higher?
1. Growth through acquisition and scale.
Old National has expanded aggressively, from the 2021 merger of equals with First Midwest to the May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, which pushed total assets to roughly $70 billion. Greater scale spreads fixed costs like technology and compliance across a bigger balance sheet and deepens the bank's presence across the Midwest. The strategy has consistently added loans, deposits, and fee revenue, though it also raises the stakes on integration execution.
2. Solid margin and cost discipline.
The net interest margin ran around 3.65% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a healthy level for a regional bank, and the full-year adjusted efficiency ratio was about 48.8%, meaning the bank spent under 49 cents to generate each dollar of revenue. That combination of a decent spread on lending and lean operating costs is what drove record adjusted net income and EPS for 2025. Sustaining margin as deposit costs and rates move is the key variable.
3. Growing fee-based wealth revenue.
Beyond lending, Old National earns fees through its 1834 wealth management arm, mortgage banking, treasury management, and capital markets. Wealth and trust fees rose roughly 12% year over year in 2025 as assets under management exceeded $30 billion, and management has targeted lifting fee-based income toward a larger share of total revenue. Growing these streams reduces the bank's dependence on the interest-rate cycle alone and adds more stable, recurring revenue.
4. Capital return through dividends.
Old National pays a quarterly cash dividend (recently $0.145 per share, about $0.58 annualized) for a yield of roughly 2.2%, giving shareholders an income component alongside any share-price movement. The bank has maintained its dividend through its acquisition-driven growth, and a reasonable payout ratio leaves room to keep funding both the dividend and balance-sheet expansion. Steady capital return is a core part of the appeal of many regional-bank stocks.
What could weigh on ONB?
Old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. As an economically cyclical regional bank, it is exposed to the credit cycle, where a recession or regional downturn would raise loan losses, particularly in commercial real estate and commercial lending that make up a meaningful part of its book. Its acquisitive strategy carries integration and execution risk, since merging Bremer's systems, staff, and customers while retaining deposits and controlling costs is not guaranteed, and future deals add more. Geographic concentration in the Midwest means regional economic weakness hits harder than for a nationally diversified bank. Finally, broader risks (deposit competition, fintech disruption, regulatory and capital requirements, and market volatility affecting its securities portfolio) can all weigh on results.
Where ONB trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are ONB's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for ONB as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a ONB forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the ONB guide and whether ONB is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the ONB outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Old National Bancorp (ONB) is Growth through acquisition and scale, with revenue (net interest income + fees, fy2025) at ~$2.9 billion. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. No one can predict the price, so treat any ONB forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for Old National Bancorp (ONB)?
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No one can reliably predict where ONB will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Old National Bancorp higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive ONB higher?
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The main growth drivers are Growth through acquisition and scale; Solid margin and cost discipline; Growing fee-based wealth revenue. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to ONB?
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Old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. As an economically cyclical regional bank, it is exposed to the credit cycle, where a recession or regional downturn would raise loan losses, particularly in commercial real estate and commercial lending that make up a meaningful part of its book. Its acquisitive strategy carries integration and execution risk, since merging Bremer's systems, staff, and customers while retaining deposits and controlling costs is not guaranteed, and future deals add more. Geographic concentration in the Midwest means regional economic weakness hits harder than for a nationally diversified bank. Finally, broader risks (deposit competition, fintech disruption, regulatory and capital requirements, and market volatility affecting its securities portfolio) can all weigh on results.
Will ONB stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Old National Bancorp's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is ONB a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the ONB "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.