Is ONON a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Full-price selling that keeps lifting gross margin, with revenue (ttm) at ~$3.9B (CHF ~3.12B, converted at roughly 1.25 USD per CHF). The bear case rests on the most concrete risk is the deceleration itself: guidance of at least 23 percent constant-currency growth for 2026 is a sharp step down from 35.6 percent in 2025, and the Americas, still more than half the business, grew only 3.1 percent on a reported basis in the first quarter, with analysts flagging maturing wholesale door growth. Analysts covering it are spread from $24.13 to $83.14, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The most concrete risk is the deceleration itself: guidance of at least 23 percent constant-currency growth for 2026 is a sharp step down from 35.6 percent in 2025, and the Americas, still more than half the business, grew only 3.1 percent on a reported basis in the first quarter, with analysts flagging maturing wholesale door growth. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $24.13, -35.8% from the $37.61 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Full-price selling that keeps lifting gross margin. On's gross margin went from 62.8 percent for full-year 2025 to 64.2 percent in the first quarter of 2026, an increase of about 430 basis points year over year, and management guides to at least 64.5 percent for 2026 even after building in a 20 percent incremental US tariff on Vietnamese imports. The most optimistic analyst target on ONON is $83.14, +121.1% from the $37.61 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

The most concrete risk is the deceleration itself: guidance of at least 23 percent constant-currency growth for 2026 is a sharp step down from 35.6 percent in 2025, and the Americas, still more than half the business, grew only 3.1 percent on a reported basis in the first quarter, with analysts flagging maturing wholesale door growth. Leadership changed at both the CEO and CFO seats in 2026, which removes the executive who ran the company through its entire public life just as the growth rate is being tested. Supply is concentrated, with roughly 90 percent of footwear produced in Vietnam and guidance that embeds a 20 percent incremental US tariff, so trade policy moves through the income statement quickly and the LightSpray nearshoring answer is years from being material. Because On reports in Swiss francs, a strong franc keeps reported growth well below constant-currency growth (14.5 percent versus 26.4 percent in the first quarter of 2026), which flatters or penalizes the headline depending on where the dollar sits. Finally, the valuation carries a premium at roughly 40 times trailing earnings against a footwear group trading far lower, founder-held Class B shares concentrate voting control regardless of the public float, and running-brand momentum has historically proven cyclical, which is what short interest of around 6 percent of shares is expressing. The most pessimistic published target is $24.13, -35.8% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

On Holding AG designs and sells performance running shoes, apparel and accessories under the On brand.

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Full-price selling that keeps lifting gross margin) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the most concrete risk is the deceleration itself: guidance of at least 23 percent constant-currency growth for 2026 is a sharp step down from 35.6 percent in 2025, and the Americas, still more than half the business, grew only 3.1 percent on a reported basis in the first quarter, with analysts flagging maturing wholesale door growth) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

Performance running shoes first, at roughly 92 percent of sales, plus a fast-growing apparel line and a small accessories business. The technical signature is CloudTec, hollow rubber elements in the outsole that compress on impact, combined with a Speedboard plate that returns energy on push-off. The product range now spans road running (Cloudmonster, Cloudsurfer), trail, training, tennis through THE ROGER franchise with Roger Federer, and increasingly a lifestyle range such as Cloudtilt aimed at buyers who will never enter a race. Distribution splits roughly 61 percent wholesale and 39 percent direct-to-consumer through on.com and On's own retail stores.

On Holding is a Swiss company, but its Class A shares list directly on the NYSE under the ticker ONON, so US investors buy the ordinary listed share rather than an ADR. Founders and early insiders hold Class B registered shares that are not publicly traded and that carry voting power out of proportion to their economic stake, which means control of the company stays with the founding group regardless of how large the public float becomes. Martin Hoffmann's Class B holdings were put forward for conversion into ordinary shares at the 2026 annual general meeting as part of his departure. Anyone weighing ONON is buying an economic interest with limited voting influence.

On reports its financial statements in Swiss francs while earning revenue in dollars, euros, yuan and other currencies. When the franc strengthens, foreign revenue converts into fewer francs, so the reported growth rate comes in below the underlying volume and price growth. In the first quarter of 2026 the gap was unusually wide: net sales rose 14.5 percent reported but 26.4 percent in constant currency, a spread of about twelve percentage points. The same effect runs through the regional lines, where the Americas grew 3.1 percent reported and 17.1 percent in constant currency. Constant currency is the better read on demand, and reported figures are the better read on what actually reaches the income statement.