Oatly Group (OTLY) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026

Short answer

What is actually driving Oatly Group (OTLY) right now is First full year of positive adjusted EBITDA: FY2025 marked Oatly's first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA, at about $6.8 million, a milestone after years of deep operating losses. Revenue (FY2025) is ~$862.5M (+4.7% YoY). If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is the plant-based category has cooled from its pandemic-era peak as some consumers return to dairy, which pressures volumes across the segment. No one can predict where OTLY trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.

What could drive Oatly Group (OTLY) higher?

1. First full year of positive adjusted EBITDA.

FY2025 marked Oatly's first full year of positive adjusted EBITDA, at about $6.8 million, a milestone after years of deep operating losses. Management guided to adjusted EBITDA of roughly $25 million to $35 million in 2026, implying it expects the profitability trend to continue. This shift is the core of the turnaround thesis, though adjusted EBITDA excludes significant real costs such as restructuring and financing.

2. Gross margin recovery.

Gross margin has climbed substantially, with Q4 2025 gross margin around 34.5%, up from the high-20s a couple of years earlier and a low of roughly 11% during the worst of the supply-chain problems. The improvement reflects better factory utilization, supply-chain fixes, and overhead cuts, with SG&A falling to about 37% of revenue from a 2022 peak above 57%. Sustaining these gains is central to reaching consistent profitability.

3. Slow but positive revenue and volume growth.

FY2025 revenue was about $862.5 million, up roughly 4.7% year over year, with finished-goods volume of about 593 million liters, up about 5.3%. For 2026 the company guided to constant-currency revenue growth of roughly 3% to 5%. Growth is modest rather than explosive, so the story depends more on margins and cost discipline than on a return to hyper-growth.

4. Restructured, leaner footprint.

Over 2023 to 2025 Oatly canceled or closed several factory projects (including sites in the UK, Texas, Singapore, and China) and cut overhead to match a more realistic demand picture. The leaner footprint lowers fixed costs and capital needs and is a major reason margins improved. The trade-off is less spare capacity for upside if demand reaccelerates.

What could weigh on OTLY?

The plant-based category has cooled from its pandemic-era peak as some consumers return to dairy, which pressures volumes across the segment. Competition is intense from Danone's Silk and Alpro, Hood's Planet Oat, Califia Farms, private label, and others, and Oatly's past supply problems let rivals win shelf space and foodservice slots. Despite improving margins, the company still posted a large net loss (about $152.8 million in FY2025) and carries a heavy debt load against modest cash (about $64 million at year-end 2025), so the path to sustained net profitability and the risk of further share issuance or refinancing are real concerns. As a small-cap ADR reporting in US dollars while earning much of its revenue abroad, the stock also carries currency translation effects and the structural features of an ADR.

How to think about a OTLY forecast

Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.

For the full picture, see the OTLY guide and whether OTLY is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.

The bottom line on the OTLY outlook

The bottom line: what is driving Oatly Group (OTLY) is First full year of positive adjusted EBITDA, with revenue (fy2025) at ~$862.5M (+4.7% YoY). If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is the plant-based category has cooled from its pandemic-era peak as some consumers return to dairy, which pressures volumes across the segment. No one can predict the price, so treat any OTLY forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

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FAQ

What is the forecast for Oatly Group (OTLY)?

No one can reliably predict where OTLY will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Oatly Group higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.

What could drive OTLY higher?

The main growth drivers are First full year of positive adjusted EBITDA; Gross margin recovery; Slow but positive revenue and volume growth. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.

What are the risks to OTLY?

Will OTLY stock go up in 2026?

Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Oatly Group's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.

Is OTLY a buy?

That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the OTLY "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.