Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Stock Forecast and Price Target (2026)

The average target of $28.05 sits well above the $15.05 price, +86.4%. The median is $28.00, and where the two differ the median is the steadier read, because one unusually high or low target cannot drag it.

The published targets span $18.00 to $40.00. That gap is 78% of the average target, which counts as wide disagreement. A spread that wide is the most informative number on this page: analysts who all follow the company closely cannot agree within a factor that large, which means the outcome genuinely depends on assumptions nobody can settle yet.

The useful move is to read the high target as one bull scenario and the low target as one bear scenario, then ask which set of assumptions you find more plausible. Both cases are worked through on the RARE is it a buy page.

The most recent individual rating action we hold on RARE is around 23 months old. We do not show it. A price target set that long ago tells you nothing about today and would be actively misleading printed next to the current price. The consensus figures above are current as of October 2026; the per-firm history is not, so treat the coverage on this name as thin.

Of the analysts with a published rating, 11 say buy, 9 say hold, and 0 say sell, so 55% carry a buy. That buy share has fallen over the last three months, so sentiment is drifting more negative.

Read the distribution rather than the label. Sell ratings are rare across the entire market for structural reasons, so a stock with no sell ratings is unremarkable, while even a handful of them is worth understanding.

• It is a 12-month model output. An analyst picks assumptions for revenue, margin, and a multiple, and the target falls out of the arithmetic. Change one assumption and the target moves a lot.
• The distribution is skewed. Sell-side coverage carries far more buy ratings than sell ratings across the whole market, so the average is not a balanced vote.
• Targets follow price as often as they lead it. Revisions frequently arrive after a move, not before, which is why a rising target is weak evidence on its own.
• Nobody is scored on it. There is no cost to a target that never gets close, so treat accuracy as unverified unless you check the firm's record yourself.

Not a published one. Analyst price targets run to about twelve months, occasionally two years, and the firms covering RARE do not put out a 2030 number. Anything presenting one is extrapolating a growth rate rather than reporting research, and a figure produced that way tells you about the assumption chosen, not about the company.

What can be said over a long horizon is what the current price already assumes about the business, which is a question the filings answer and a forecast cannot.

That is the more useful frame for a ten-year question. A share price is the market’s estimate of future cash flows discounted to today, so the multiple is already a statement about growth. The long-horizon question is whether Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical can deliver what is priced in, and what would have to change for that to break. Both are answerable from the drivers and risks below. A number for 2030 is not.

In short: the drivers cited most often are Near-term gene therapy approvals, Angelman syndrome readout, Growing commercial base. The risk cited most often against it is ultragenyx remains unprofitable, with a net loss of about $575 million in 2025 and roughly $737 million of cash as of December 2025, so continued spending or delayed approvals could pressure the balance sheet and raise dilution or financing risk.

Both sides are worked through properly, with the high and low targets used as the bull and bear anchors, on the RARE is it a buy page. This page deliberately stops at the numbers.