Service Corporation International (SCI) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Service Corporation International (SCI) right now is Demographic tailwind and aging population: SCI's long-term demand is tied to demographics, and the aging of the large baby-boomer generation points to a rising number of deaths per year over the coming decades. Revenue (TTM) is ~$4.3 billion (Q1 2026 was ~$1.10 billion, up ~2.1% year over year). If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is the most immediate pressure is the normalization of funeral volumes after elevated pandemic-era death rates, which drove comparable funeral volumes down about 6% in Q1 2026 and can weigh on year-over-year comparisons. No one can predict where SCI trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Service Corporation International (SCI) higher?
1. Demographic tailwind and aging population
SCI's long-term demand is tied to demographics, and the aging of the large baby-boomer generation points to a rising number of deaths per year over the coming decades. As the biggest operator, SCI is positioned to capture a share of that growing volume. This is a slow, structural driver rather than a quarter-to-quarter catalyst, but it underpins the durability of the business.
2. Preneed backlog and pricing power
The roughly $16 billion preneed backlog is prepaid, contracted future revenue that converts to sales as those arrangements are fulfilled, giving SCI unusual visibility. Comparable preneed sales production grew in Q1 2026 (cemetery up about 10%, funeral up about 6%), replenishing that backlog. As the scale leader, SCI can raise prices modestly each year and add higher-margin cemetery property and merchandise, supporting steady revenue per service.
3. Scale, consolidation, and capital returns
Deathcare is a fragmented industry of mostly small, family-owned operators, and SCI uses its scale and balance sheet to acquire funeral homes and cemeteries and build density in its markets. It also returns large amounts of cash: Q1 2026 alone included about $144 million of buybacks and about $47 million of dividends. Shrinking the share count and compounding acquisitions is how a low-growth business drives mid-single-digit or better EPS growth.
4. Cremation mix and cost management
The long-running shift toward cremation lowers the average revenue per funeral service, so SCI works to offset it with cremation-related memorialization products, cemetery property sales, and cost discipline. Managing this mix shift while protecting margins is a central operational focus. Success here determines whether steady volume translates into steady profit.
What could weigh on SCI?
The most immediate pressure is the normalization of funeral volumes after elevated pandemic-era death rates, which drove comparable funeral volumes down about 6% in Q1 2026 and can weigh on year-over-year comparisons. The secular shift toward cremation reduces average revenue per service and must be continually offset by pricing and merchandise. SCI carries meaningful debt and its preneed trust funds are exposed to financial-market swings, so weak investment returns can pressure trust performance and reported results. Regulation is a structural risk: the company has flagged that state application of unclaimed-property laws to its preneed backlog could adversely affect liquidity and cash flow. Finally, this is a mature, low-single-digit revenue grower, so the stock can lag in strong bull markets even as it holds up better in downturns.
Where SCI trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are SCI's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for SCI as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a SCI forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the SCI guide and whether SCI is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the SCI outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Service Corporation International (SCI) is Demographic tailwind and aging population, with revenue (ttm) at ~$4.3 billion (Q1 2026 was ~$1.10 billion, up ~2.1% year over year). If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is the most immediate pressure is the normalization of funeral volumes after elevated pandemic-era death rates, which drove comparable funeral volumes down about 6% in Q1 2026 and can weigh on year-over-year comparisons. No one can predict the price, so treat any SCI forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for Service Corporation International (SCI)?
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No one can reliably predict where SCI will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Service Corporation International higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive SCI higher?
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The main growth drivers are Demographic tailwind and aging population; Preneed backlog and pricing power; Scale, consolidation, and capital returns. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to SCI?
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The most immediate pressure is the normalization of funeral volumes after elevated pandemic-era death rates, which drove comparable funeral volumes down about 6% in Q1 2026 and can weigh on year-over-year comparisons. The secular shift toward cremation reduces average revenue per service and must be continually offset by pricing and merchandise. SCI carries meaningful debt and its preneed trust funds are exposed to financial-market swings, so weak investment returns can pressure trust performance and reported results. Regulation is a structural risk: the company has flagged that state application of unclaimed-property laws to its preneed backlog could adversely affect liquidity and cash flow. Finally, this is a mature, low-single-digit revenue grower, so the stock can lag in strong bull markets even as it holds up better in downturns.
Will SCI stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Service Corporation International's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is SCI a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the SCI "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.