Is SR a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Rate base growth is the earnings engine, with revenue (ttm) at ~$2.7B, with ~$2.14B in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. The bear case rests on regulatory outcomes drive nearly everything here: Alabama and Gulf RSE renewal hearings were held in August 2026 with requested returns on equity of ~10.5% to 10.75%, and Spire expects to make its first Missouri future test year rate case filing around November 2026, so an unfavorable order in either place would flow straight to earnings. Analysts covering it are spread from $85.00 to $100.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. Regulatory outcomes drive nearly everything here: Alabama and Gulf RSE renewal hearings were held in August 2026 with requested returns on equity of ~10.5% to 10.75%, and Spire expects to make its first Missouri future test year rate case filing around November 2026, so an unfavorable order in either place would flow straight to earnings. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $85.00, +3.9% from the $81.83 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Rate base growth is the earnings engine. Spire plans ~$797 million of capital spending in fiscal 2026, ~$4.8 billion across fiscal 2026 through 2030, and ~$11.2 billion over ten years, with roughly 70% of it going to safety and reliability work. The most optimistic analyst target on SR is $100.00, +22.2% from the $81.83 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

Regulatory outcomes drive nearly everything here: Alabama and Gulf RSE renewal hearings were held in August 2026 with requested returns on equity of ~10.5% to 10.75%, and Spire expects to make its first Missouri future test year rate case filing around November 2026, so an unfavorable order in either place would flow straight to earnings. Financing is the second pressure point, since the ~$2.48 billion Tennessee purchase was funded with cash and a stack of fiscal 2026 debt issuance including ~$200 million of Missouri bonds, ~$200 million of subordinated notes and ~$400 million of senior notes, leaving the company more exposed to interest rates and to rating agency views than it was two years ago. Seasonality can mislead badly: Spire reported a GAAP loss of ~$42.6 million, or ~$(0.72) per diluted share, in the June 2026 quarter, which is normal for a gas distributor in summer but looks alarming out of context. Integrating a newly acquired utility across a fourth state carries execution and service quality risk, and any early stumble tends to be noticed by the commission that sets the rates. Longer term, electrification policy, building codes that discourage new gas hookups, and pipeline safety mandates all bear on how durable a gas-only distribution rate base is over a ten-year capital plan. The most pessimistic published target is $85.00, +3.9% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

Spire is a St. Louis holding company whose regulated utilities deliver natural gas to nearly 2 million homes and businesses across four states.

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Rate base growth is the earnings engine) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (regulatory outcomes drive nearly everything here: Alabama and Gulf RSE renewal hearings were held in August 2026 with requested returns on equity of ~10.5% to 10.75%, and Spire expects to make its first Missouri future test year rate case filing around November 2026, so an unfavorable order in either place would flow straight to earnings) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

Spire is a holding company for regulated natural gas distribution utilities in Missouri, Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee, serving nearly 2 million homes and businesses. Its subsidiaries buy gas, deliver it through their own pipes, and charge rates approved by each state commission. A smaller Midstream segment owns pipeline and storage assets that support those utilities.

Gas demand collapses in summer while fixed costs continue, so the quarter ended June 30 is routinely a loss for a heating utility. Spire reported a GAAP loss from continuing operations of ~$42.6 million, or ~$(0.72) per diluted share, and an adjusted loss of ~$(0.26). For the same reason, nine-month adjusted earnings of ~$5.01 overstate the full year, which management guides to ~$3.90 to $4.10.

Two things account for most of the step. Fiscal 2027 includes a first full year of the Tennessee utility acquired on March 31, 2026, whereas fiscal 2026 captured only one quarter of it alongside the transaction and financing costs. Missouri rates effective late October 2025 and Alabama rate actions also contribute a full period rather than a partial one.