Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS) Stock Forecast and Price Target (2026)

The average target of $99.50 sits well above the $74.19 price, +34.1%. The median is $100.00, and where the two differ the median is the steadier read, because one unusually high or low target cannot drag it.

The published targets span $84.00 to $116.00. That gap is 32% of the average target, which counts as moderate disagreement. That is a fairly typical spread: enough agreement that the average means something, enough disagreement that it should not be treated as precise.

The useful move is to read the high target as one bull scenario and the low target as one bear scenario, then ask which set of assumptions you find more plausible. Both cases are worked through on the TARS is it a buy page.

In the last six months there have been 2 raises and 2 cuts among these actions. The direction of revisions is often more telling than the level, because it shows which way informed opinion is moving.

Of the analysts with a published rating, 10 say buy, 0 say hold, and 0 say sell, so 100% carry a buy. That mix has been broadly steady over the last three months.

Read the distribution rather than the label. Sell ratings are rare across the entire market for structural reasons, so a stock with no sell ratings is unremarkable, while even a handful of them is worth understanding.

• It is a 12-month model output. An analyst picks assumptions for revenue, margin, and a multiple, and the target falls out of the arithmetic. Change one assumption and the target moves a lot.
• The distribution is skewed. Sell-side coverage carries far more buy ratings than sell ratings across the whole market, so the average is not a balanced vote.
• Targets follow price as often as they lead it. Revisions frequently arrive after a move, not before, which is why a rising target is weak evidence on its own.
• Nobody is scored on it. There is no cost to a target that never gets close, so treat accuracy as unverified unless you check the firm's record yourself.

Not a published one. Analyst price targets run to about twelve months, occasionally two years, and the firms covering TARS do not put out a 2030 number. Anything presenting one is extrapolating a growth rate rather than reporting research, and a figure produced that way tells you about the assumption chosen, not about the company.

What can be said over a long horizon is what the current price already assumes about the business, which is a question the filings answer and a forecast cannot.

That is the more useful frame for a ten-year question. A share price is the market’s estimate of future cash flows discounted to today, so the multiple is already a statement about growth. The long-horizon question is whether Tarsus Pharmaceuticals can deliver what is priced in, and what would have to change for that to break. Both are answerable from the drivers and risks below. A number for 2030 is not.

In short: the drivers cited most often are XDEMVY prescription growth, Large, under-penetrated indication, High-margin economics. The risk cited most often against it is the overwhelming risk is single-product concentration: essentially all revenue comes from XDEMVY, so any slowdown in prescriptions, coverage, or pricing hits the whole company.

Both sides are worked through properly, with the high and low targets used as the bull and bear anchors, on the TARS is it a buy page. This page deliberately stops at the numbers.