Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026

Short answer

What is actually driving Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) right now is Recurring supplies and a growing installed base: Tandem ended 2025 with a U.S. FY2025 revenue is ~$1.0 billion worldwide. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is competition is the central risk: Insulet's tubeless Omnipod 5 is the fastest-growing system in the market, Medtronic remains a large incumbent, and newer entrants like Beta Bionics' iLet and Sequel's twiist add pressure, all of which can squeeze Tandem's pricing and pump share. No one can predict where TNDM trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.

What could drive Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) higher?

1. Recurring supplies and a growing installed base.

Tandem ended 2025 with a U.S. installed base of roughly 324,000 customers, each generating recurring revenue from pump supplies long after the initial sale. Worldwide sales reached about $1 billion for full-year 2025. This razor-and-blade dynamic gives the business a growing, relatively predictable revenue stream that compounds as more pumps are placed and renewed.

2. Tandem Mobi and Control-IQ+ product cycle.

The miniaturized Tandem Mobi, billed as the world's smallest durable automated insulin delivery system, has been ramping in the U.S. and internationally, with Android phone control added in 2025-2026. Control-IQ+ software was cleared for commercial use in 2025 and broadened to younger patients. These launches are central to keeping Tandem competitive against tubeless and patch-pump rivals.

3. International growth and CGM integrations.

International pump shipments rose to more than 40,000 for full-year 2025, an increasingly important growth lever. Tandem also began the global rollout of t:slim X2 integration with Abbott's FreeStyle Libre 3 Plus sensor, adding to existing Dexcom G6/G7 support. Wider sensor choice can broaden Tandem's addressable customer base across geographies.

4. Turn toward profitability.

Full-year 2025 non-GAAP gross margin was about 54%, with the fourth quarter at roughly 58%, and Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA was positive at about $32.9 million (11% of sales). For 2026 management guided to gross margins of 56% to 57% and full-year positive adjusted EBITDA of 5% to 6%, though revenue growth is tempered by a $70 million to $80 million pricing headwind from the PayGo transition.

What could weigh on TNDM?

Competition is the central risk: Insulet's tubeless Omnipod 5 is the fastest-growing system in the market, Medtronic remains a large incumbent, and newer entrants like Beta Bionics' iLet and Sequel's twiist add pressure, all of which can squeeze Tandem's pricing and pump share. GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are a structural unknown that management has acknowledged may have weighed on the broader insulin-therapy market since 2023, though the long-term effect on pump demand is unclear. Tandem still posts GAAP net losses (about $204.7 million in 2025) and must execute its PayGo pharmacy-channel transition without losing customers, while reimbursement decisions and product execution on Mobi and new integrations all carry uncertainty.

How to think about a TNDM forecast

Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.

For the full picture, see the TNDM guide and whether TNDM is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.

The bottom line on the TNDM outlook

The bottom line: what is driving Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM) is Recurring supplies and a growing installed base, with fy2025 revenue at ~$1.0 billion worldwide. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is competition is the central risk: Insulet's tubeless Omnipod 5 is the fastest-growing system in the market, Medtronic remains a large incumbent, and newer entrants like Beta Bionics' iLet and Sequel's twiist add pressure, all of which can squeeze Tandem's pricing and pump share. No one can predict the price, so treat any TNDM forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

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FAQ

What is the forecast for Tandem Diabetes Care (TNDM)?

No one can reliably predict where TNDM will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Tandem Diabetes Care higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.

What could drive TNDM higher?

The main growth drivers are Recurring supplies and a growing installed base; Tandem Mobi and Control-IQ+ product cycle; International growth and CGM integrations. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.

What are the risks to TNDM?

Will TNDM stock go up in 2026?

Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Tandem Diabetes Care's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.

Is TNDM a buy?

That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the TNDM "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.