Texas Pacific Land (TPL) Stock Forecast and Price Target (2026)
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
There is no meaningful analyst consensus for Texas Pacific Land (TPL): too few analysts publish estimates on it for an average target to mean anything. That is normal for smaller and newer companies and says nothing about the business. What is left is the setup, the drivers and the risks below, which you assess yourself rather than starting from someone else's model. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Why TPL has no consensus price target
Sell-side coverage follows trading volume and banking relationships, so smaller companies, recent listings, and names outside the major indices often carry little or none. That is the situation with TPL. It says nothing about the quality of the business, but it does mean there is no informed average to anchor to, and that any single target you find elsewhere is one analyst's model rather than a consensus.
TPL trades at roughly 26 times trailing sales and around 45 times trailing earnings, well above its own five-year median and far above any Permian producer. The defense of that multiple is the margin structure and the balance sheet: ~88% adjusted EBITDA margins, ~60% net margins, essentially no debt, and free cash flow that arrives without TPL spending on drilling. The offense against it is that royalty revenue still swings with commodity prices, so the multiple has to survive a soft oil year to be considered durable.
What could move TPL from here
In short: the drivers cited most often are Royalty volumes on other people's capital, Water: source, produced water royalties, and desalination, Surface acreage as power and data center real estate. The risk cited most often against it is the valuation is the dominant risk: at roughly 26 times sales and around 45 times trailing earnings, TPL is priced far above producers and mineral peers, so a slowdown in Permian activity gets amplified in the stock rather than cushioned.
Both sides are worked through properly, with the high and low targets used as the bull and bear anchors, on the TPL is it a buy page. This page deliberately stops at the numbers.
Investing in Texas Pacific Land with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how TPL fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the price target for Texas Pacific Land (TPL)?
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There is no meaningful consensus price target for TPL, because too few analysts publish on it. That is common for smaller and newer companies. Where only one or two analysts cover a stock, an "average target" is really one person's model, so we do not print a number that would imply more agreement than exists. Check your broker's research tab for whatever individual coverage exists.
Why does TPL have no analyst forecast?
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Sell-side coverage follows trading volume and banking relationships, so small caps, recent listings, and companies outside the major indices often carry little or none. A lack of coverage says nothing about the business itself. It does mean you are doing the analysis yourself rather than starting from someone else's model.
What could move TPL?
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The drivers and the risks are laid out on this page and in more depth on the TPL "is it a buy" page. Without analyst estimates to anchor to, the honest framing is scenarios rather than a number.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice, and does not publish price targets of its own. The analyst figures on this page come from a August 2026 data pull of published third-party research, are approximate, and change constantly. Verify current figures with your broker before acting on them.