Is VLY a Buy? What to Consider in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
The bull case for Valley National Bancorp (VLY) rests on Net interest margin recovery: After a squeeze during the high-rate period, Valley's net interest margin expanded to roughly 3.17 percent in Q1 2026, up about 21 basis points year over year, as deposit costs stabilized and the loan book repriced. Revenue (Q1 2026) is ~$540 million. If you believe that thesis holds, the real questions become position sizing and overlap, not timing. The main risk to that view: Valley's commercial real estate concentration, near 58 percent of loans and among the highest of comparable regional banks, is the central risk: a downturn in office, multifamily or construction values could drive higher provisions and charge-offs. Whether VLY is a buy comes down to whether you believe the thesis. This is informational, not a recommendation, and Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Valley National Bancorp is the holding company for Valley National Bank, a regional lender headquartered in the New York metro area with operations concentrated in New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama and California. At December 31, 2025 it held roughly $64.1 billion in total assets, about $49.6 billion in net loans and $52.2 billion in deposits, and it makes money the traditional way, by taking deposits and lending against commercial real estate, commercial and industrial borrowers, and consumers, while collecting fee income on the side. Commercial real estate has long been its signature exposure, at about 58 percent of total loans, which is high versus most peers and is the single biggest factor investors watch. The investment picture in mid 2026 is one of gradual improvement off a difficult stretch for regional banks. Net interest margin has widened to about 3.17 percent as deposit costs stabilized, Q1 2026 net income rose to roughly $164 million (about $0.28 per share) from $106 million a year earlier, and the efficiency ratio improved into the low 50s. Management has been actively reducing CRE concentration, including a roughly $1 billion loan sale to Brookfield, while investing in technology. The stock carries a low valuation (trailing price to earnings around 12 and forward around 10) that reflects lingering market skepticism about CRE credit and the durability of margin gains.
What's the case for buying VLY?
1. Net interest margin recovery
After a squeeze during the high-rate period, Valley's net interest margin expanded to roughly 3.17 percent in Q1 2026, up about 21 basis points year over year, as deposit costs stabilized and the loan book repriced. Continued margin stability or expansion is the primary lever for earnings growth, since spread income is the bulk of revenue.
2. Deposit growth and funding mix
Deposits grew to about $52.9 billion, with gains in savings, NOW and money market balances plus some non-interest-bearing inflows from commercial and online customers. A cheaper, stickier deposit base directly supports margin and reduces reliance on wholesale funding.
3. Commercial real estate de-risking
Management is deliberately lowering CRE concentration, which fell to about 58 percent of loans, aided by a roughly $1 billion loan sale to Brookfield. Bringing the concentration ratio down over time could reduce the risk discount the market applies to the stock.
4. Efficiency and technology investment
The efficiency ratio improved to roughly 53 percent, and the company has signaled spending on automation and AI to control costs. Sustained operating leverage would let more revenue fall to the bottom line even in a flat-rate environment.
What are the risks to VLY?
Valley's commercial real estate concentration, near 58 percent of loans and among the highest of comparable regional banks, is the central risk: a downturn in office, multifamily or construction values could drive higher provisions and charge-offs. The bank is also sensitive to interest rates and deposit competition, which can compress margin quickly. Credit provisioning has stayed elevated, and its geographic focus on New York and New Jersey ties results to those regional economies. A broader repeat of the 2023 regional-bank deposit stress would pressure the stock, and the dividend, while attractive, depends on continued earnings stability.
How is VLY valued? (as of July 2026)
Snapshot for VLY as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
- Market cap: ~$8 billion
- Revenue (Q1 2026): ~$540 million
- Net income (Q1 2026): ~$164 million
- Diluted EPS (Q1 2026): ~$0.28
- Net interest margin: ~3.17%
- Trailing P/E: ~12x
VLY trades at a low double-digit trailing price to earnings (around 12) and a forward multiple near 10, a discount that reflects market caution on its commercial real estate book. Total assets were about $64.1 billion with roughly $50.8 billion in loans and $52.9 billion in deposits as of Q1 2026. The bank pays a dividend that has historically produced a mid-single-digit yield.
How do you decide if VLY is a buy?
Rather than asking whether VLY is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:
- Thesis: do you believe the case above, and is it still true today?
- Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
- Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
- Overlap: check whether you already hold VLY indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.
For the full picture, see the VLY stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about VLY against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.
The bottom line on VLY
The bottom line: Valley National Bancorp's story right now is Net interest margin recovery, with revenue (q1 2026) at ~$540 million. If you believe that narrative continues, the call is about sizing VLY sensibly and checking overlap with what you own; if you doubt it (the risk: valley's commercial real estate concentration, near 58 percent of loans and among the highest of comparable regional banks, is the central risk: a downturn in office, multifamily or construction values could drive higher provisions and charge-offs.), it is not for you. Decide from the thesis, not the ticker. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Build a basket around VLY with Walnut
Use Valley National Bancorp as one constituent in a thematic basket Walnut's AI helps you assemble. Describe a thesis you believe in, the AI proposes the holdings and weights, and you approve before any broker order.
FAQ
Is VLY a good stock to buy right now?
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The case for Valley National Bancorp right now is Net interest margin recovery, with revenue (q1 2026) at ~$540 million. If you believe that thesis holds, VLY is a way to own it and the real questions are sizing and overlap, not timing; the main risk to that view is valley's commercial real estate concentration, near 58 percent of loans and among the highest of comparable regional banks, is the central risk: a downturn in office, multifamily or construction values could drive higher provisions and charge-offs. So it comes down to whether you believe the thesis. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.
What does Valley National Bancorp do?
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Valley National Bancorp is the holding company for Valley National Bank, a regional lender headquartered in the New York metro area with operations concentrated in New Jersey, New
What are the main risks of VLY?
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Valley's commercial real estate concentration, near 58 percent of loans and among the highest of comparable regional banks, is the central risk: a downturn in office, multifamily or construction values could drive higher provisions and charge-offs. The bank is also sensitive to interest rates and deposit competition, which can compress margin quickly. Credit provisioning has stayed elevated, and its geographic focus on New York and New Jersey ties results to those regional economies. A broader repeat of the 2023 regional-bank deposit stress would pressure the stock, and the dividend, while attractive, depends on continued earnings stability.
What does Valley National Bancorp do?
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It is the holding company for Valley National Bank, a regional bank that takes deposits and makes loans, with a particular emphasis on commercial real estate, across New Jersey, New York, Florida, Alabama and California. Most of its revenue comes from the spread between what it earns on loans and what it pays on deposits.
Is VLY a large bank?
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It is a mid-size regional bank, not one of the national giants. As of the end of 2025 it held roughly $64 billion in total assets, with about $50 billion in loans and $52 billion in deposits, and a market value near $8 billion.
Why does VLY trade at a low P/E?
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The trailing price to earnings ratio of around 12, and forward near 10, reflects investor caution about Valley's heavy commercial real estate concentration and the general discount applied to regional banks since the 2023 stress. The market wants proof that margin gains and credit quality are durable.
What is Valley's commercial real estate exposure?
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Commercial real estate, including construction, was about 58 percent of total loans at the end of 2025, which is high relative to many peers. Management has been actively reducing this concentration, including selling roughly $1 billion of CRE loans to Brookfield.
Walnut is informational and is not an investment adviser. This page is educational and not a recommendation to buy or sell VLY; figures are approximate and dated, and your own situation, time horizon, and risk tolerance should drive any decision. Verify current data before investing.