What Is TMF? Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares

TMF is the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares, a leveraged exchange-traded fund that aims to deliver 300% of the daily performance of the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. That index tracks the longest-dated US government bonds, the same slice of the Treasury market covered by the popular unleveraged iShares TLT. When long-term Treasury prices rise, meaning long-term interest rates fall, TMF is designed to gain roughly three times as much on that day.

The fund is issued by Direxion and advised by Rafferty Asset Management, carries a 0.90% expense ratio, and holds around $2.3 billion in assets as of mid-2026. It is one of the most-traded ways to make a leveraged, directional bet on the path of long-term rates.

Approximate weights as of mid-2026; refresh quarterly from Direxion's fund page. Each ticker links to its individual stock guide in Walnut.

TMF does not own a basket of stocks, and it does not simply hold three dollars of Treasuries for every dollar you invest. Instead it uses total return swaps referencing the 20+ year Treasury index, along with Treasury futures and cash-like collateral, to engineer 3x the index's daily move. The line items in its portfolio are these derivative contracts and their collateral, not company shares.

This derivative structure is why TMF can offer triple exposure with a single share, but it also introduces financing costs and counterparty considerations that a plain bond fund does not carry. The economic exposure is entirely to long-dated US Treasury prices; there is no equity, credit, or sector diversification inside the fund.

This is the single most important thing to understand about TMF. The fund targets 3x the index return for one day at a time, then resets its exposure at the close. Over any period longer than a single day, your return is the compounded product of those daily 3x moves, not a clean 3x of the index's total move. In a smooth, sustained rate decline this compounding can actually work in your favor, but in choppy or sideways rate markets it works against you.

The mechanism is called volatility decay. If long rates whipsaw up and down while ending roughly where they started, TMF grinds lower even though the underlying index is flat, because a 3x down day requires a larger up day to recover. Combined with the 0.90% expense ratio and the financing cost baked into the swaps, this decay means TMF is built to be held for a day to a few weeks with active monitoring, not bought and forgotten. Direxion states plainly that these funds are intended for short-term tactical use and are not appropriate for long-term, buy-and-hold investors.

TLT is the unleveraged, 1x version: it holds 20+ year Treasuries directly, moves one-for-one with them, and is a legitimate long-term bond holding for investors who want duration and a rate hedge. TMF is the 3x bullish version of that same exposure, magnifying moves and requiring active management. TMV is the mirror image, the 3x bearish fund that profits when long rates rise.

The choice is really a choice about conviction and horizon. If you simply want long-duration Treasury exposure to hold, TLT is the tool. If you have a short-term, high-conviction view that long rates are about to fall and you intend to trade around it, TMF offers amplified upside at the cost of amplified downside and decay. TMV suits the opposite short-term view. TMF is not a substitute for TLT in a long-term portfolio.

TMF's performance is dominated by two forces: the direction of long-term interest rates and the effect of daily compounding. In periods when long rates fell sharply and steadily, TMF produced outsized gains. In the rising-rate environments of recent years, it suffered severe drawdowns, amplified far beyond TLT's own losses. Its long-run chart is a study in why leverage cuts both ways.

Looking ahead, TMF's fortunes hinge entirely on the path of long-end Treasury yields, which are driven by inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury issuance, and demand for duration. Because no one reliably predicts rates, and because decay penalizes indecision, TMF rewards a correct, timely, short-horizon call and punishes a wrong or drawn-out one.

TMF fits a narrow use case: an experienced, risk-tolerant trader who wants to express a short-term, leveraged view that long-term interest rates will fall and who will actively manage the position. It is not a core bond allocation, not an income vehicle, and not something to hold through a rate cycle, because the daily reset makes long-run returns diverge unpredictably from 3x the index and can lose money even when the index is flat.

Walnut is not an investment adviser, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell TMF. Whether a leveraged, tactical Treasury fund belongs in your portfolio depends on your risk tolerance, your time horizon, and your ability to monitor the position closely. If you do hold TMF, you can connect your brokerage to Walnut to track it alongside the rest of your holdings.

TMF trades on major US brokerages including Robinhood, Fidelity, Schwab, and Public, and several of them support fractional shares if you want to size a small position precisely. Because it is a leveraged product, some brokers require you to acknowledge the added risks before trading it.

If you already own TMF or other tactical positions, you can connect that brokerage account to Walnut to see them alongside your thematic baskets, track how they are performing, and keep your full picture in one place. Walnut does not place trades for you; execution stays with your broker.

TMF gives you triple the daily move of 20+ year Treasuries, so it soars when long rates fall and collapses when they rise. Its 0.90% fee and daily reset make it a short-horizon trading tool, not a core bond holding. Held through choppy rate markets, compounding decay erodes returns. This is descriptive, not a recommendation.

Whether TMF is worth buying today depends more on your time horizon and what you already hold than on any single call. We walk through valuation, concentration, and what would have to be true for it to outperform from here in is TMF a buy?

TMF yields ~2 to 3% (variable) as of mid-2026, paid by passing through the dividends of its underlying holdings. For the payout schedule, history, and how the distributions are taxed, see TMF dividend: yield and schedule.