Is TMF a Buy? What to Consider in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
The case for TMF is simple: low-cost, diversified exposure to ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily) at a 0.90% expense ratio, anchored by names like TLT, UST. If that is the exposure you want and you do not already own most of it through another fund, TMF is a strong core holding. The catch is concentration in its top names and overlap with broad-market funds you may already hold. Whether it is a buy comes down to whether you want ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily) and at what cost. Not a recommendation; Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What are you buying with TMF?
TMF is the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares, targeting 300% of the daily performance of the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index at a 0.90% expense ratio. It expresses that exposure through swaps and Treasury futures, and the leverage is reset every day, which makes it a tactical instrument tied to short-term moves in long-term interest rates rather than the buy-and-hold equivalent of TLT.
Largest holdings (approximate as of mid-2026; verify on Direxion's fund page):
What's the case for TMF?
TMF is the Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares, a leveraged ETF that seeks 300% of the daily return of long-dated US Treasuries as measured by the ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. It uses swaps and Treasury futures rather than holding the bonds outright, carries a 0.90% expense ratio, and manages roughly $2.3 billion. Because it resets its 3x exposure every day, TMF is a tactical bet on falling long-term interest rates, not a buy-and-hold bond fund like the unleveraged TLT.
In its favour: it gives you ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily) exposure in one ticker at a 0.90% expense ratio, which is simple to hold and cheap to own.
What should you weigh before buying TMF?
- Cost vs alternatives: 0.90% is the fee; compare it to funds tracking a similar index.
- Concentration: check how much of TMF sits in its largest holdings (TLT, UST).
- Overlap: if you already own a broad-market fund, you may already hold much of this.
- Tracking scope: TMF only gives you ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily); it will not capture what sits outside that index.
How do you decide if TMF is a buy?
The useful question is rarely “will TMF go up?” It is “does this exposure fit my plan, at a cost I am happy with, without doubling up on what I already own?” Walnut connects your real brokerage so you can see exactly how TMF would overlap with your current holdings, analyze it by chatting through Claude or ChatGPT, and place any trade yourself. You stay in control.
The bottom line on TMF
The bottom line: TMF is a low-cost core building block for ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily) exposure, not a tactical bet on a single name. If you want ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily) exposure and the 0.90% fee is competitive for you, it does its job well. If you already own that exposure through another fund, adding it mostly doubles a fee without adding diversification. Decide from your goal and your existing holdings, not from where the market sat last week. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Build a portfolio around TMF with Walnut
Use TMF as your core holding, then let Walnut's AI propose thematic satellites: AI infrastructure, dividend growth, clean energy, whatever you believe in. Connect your broker, build the basket in conversation, track it as one unit.
FAQ
Is TMF a good ETF to buy?
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Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Whether TMF fits depends on your goals, time horizon, and what you already hold. It tracks ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily) at a 0.90% expense ratio, so the questions that matter are whether you want that exposure, whether you already own it through another fund, and whether the cost is competitive for what it does.
What does TMF actually hold?
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TMF tracks ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily). Its largest positions include TLT, UST and others (approximate, verify on Direxion's fund page). The holdings are what you are really buying, not the ticker.
What is TMF's expense ratio?
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0.90% as of mid-2026. Over decades, the expense ratio is one of the few things you can control, so it is worth comparing against close alternatives that track a similar index.
Does TMF pay a dividend?
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TMF distributes a dividend with an approximate yield of ~2 to 3% (variable) (mid-2026). See the TMF dividend page for how distributions work. Verify the current figure with Direxion.
What are the risks of buying TMF?
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Like any index ETF, weigh concentration (how much sits in the top holdings), overlap with funds you already own, and whether ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily) matches the exposure you actually want. TMF only gives you ICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (3x daily), not what sits outside it.
How do I decide if TMF is right for me?
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Start from your goal, then check four things: what TMF holds, its cost versus alternatives, how much it overlaps with what you already own, and whether the exposure fits your time horizon and risk tolerance. Walnut can analyze the overlap against your real holdings; you keep your broker and approve any trade.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. Figures are approximations stamped to mid-2026; verify current data with Direxion or your broker. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.