AAON (AAON) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving AAON (AAON) right now is Data center liquid cooling (BASX): BASX-branded sales rose ~72% year over year in Q1 2026 to ~$229 million, driven by liquid-cooling demand for AI data centers. Revenue (TTM) is ~$1.6B. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is valuation is the central risk: AAON trades at a rich multiple (trailing P/E well above 70), so any growth disappointment could compress the stock sharply. No one can predict where AAON trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive AAON (AAON) higher?
1. Data center liquid cooling (BASX)
BASX-branded sales rose ~72% year over year in Q1 2026 to ~$229 million, driven by liquid-cooling demand for AI data centers. This segment is the primary growth engine, with the broader data center thermal management market growing roughly 30% annually. It has shifted AAON's revenue mix toward AI infrastructure spending.
2. Record backlog and raised guidance
Total backlog more than doubled to a record ~$2.13 billion, led by BASX data center orders, giving strong forward revenue visibility. Management raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to ~40%-45%, up sharply from an earlier ~18%-20% view. That backlog underpins near-term production planning and capacity utilization.
3. Capacity expansion and core HVAC franchise
Investments across Memphis, Longview, and Redmond facilities are lifting throughput for both BASX and AAON-branded products. The traditional rooftop-unit business remains a benchmark for efficiency and durability, with Alpha Class heat pumps representing roughly a quarter of rooftop sales. This base provides steadier replacement-driven demand alongside the data center surge.
4. Margin and operating leverage
Operating margin edged up to ~11.5% in Q1 2026 even as gross margin compressed to ~25% on ramp-up costs and mix. If AAON absorbs new capacity and normalizes production, scale could support margin recovery. Conversely, continued ramp costs are a near-term drag to watch.
What could weigh on AAON?
Valuation is the central risk: AAON trades at a rich multiple (trailing P/E well above 70), so any growth disappointment could compress the stock sharply. The data center growth story concentrates revenue in a small number of hyperscale customers whose capital spending can be lumpy or slow if AI infrastructure demand cools. Execution risk is elevated as the company ramps new capacity, and gross margins have compressed during the ramp. The core HVAC business remains cyclical and exposed to nonresidential construction, interest rates, and input costs. Larger, better-capitalized competitors such as Vertiv, Johnson Controls, and Carrier are investing aggressively in liquid cooling, which could pressure pricing and share over time.
Where AAON trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are AAON's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for AAON as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a AAON forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the AAON guide and whether AAON is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the AAON outlook
The bottom line: what is driving AAON (AAON) is Data center liquid cooling (BASX), with revenue (ttm) at ~$1.6B. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is valuation is the central risk: AAON trades at a rich multiple (trailing P/E well above 70), so any growth disappointment could compress the stock sharply. No one can predict the price, so treat any AAON forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for AAON (AAON)?
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No one can reliably predict where AAON will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push AAON higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive AAON higher?
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The main growth drivers are Data center liquid cooling (BASX); Record backlog and raised guidance; Capacity expansion and core HVAC franchise. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to AAON?
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Valuation is the central risk: AAON trades at a rich multiple (trailing P/E well above 70), so any growth disappointment could compress the stock sharply. The data center growth story concentrates revenue in a small number of hyperscale customers whose capital spending can be lumpy or slow if AI infrastructure demand cools. Execution risk is elevated as the company ramps new capacity, and gross margins have compressed during the ramp. The core HVAC business remains cyclical and exposed to nonresidential construction, interest rates, and input costs. Larger, better-capitalized competitors such as Vertiv, Johnson Controls, and Carrier are investing aggressively in liquid cooling, which could pressure pricing and share over time.
Will AAON stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. AAON's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is AAON a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the AAON "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
How fast is AAON growing?
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Q1 2026 revenue rose ~54% year over year to ~$497 million, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to roughly 40%-45%. The record backlog gives the company strong forward visibility into that growth.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.