Exelixis (EXEL) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Exelixis (EXEL) right now is Cabozantinib franchise growth: Cabozantinib remains the growth engine, with Q1 2026 cabozantinib franchise net product revenue of about $555 million and continued share gains as the leading TKI in second-line-plus kidney cancer and the oral market leader in neuroendocrine tumors. Revenue (TTM) is ~$2.2 billion (Q1 2026 total revenue was ~$611 million, up ~10% year over year). If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is the dominant risk is single-franchise concentration: the large majority of revenue comes from cabozantinib, so any competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would hit the whole company. No one can predict where EXEL trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Exelixis (EXEL) higher?
1. Cabozantinib franchise growth
Cabozantinib remains the growth engine, with Q1 2026 cabozantinib franchise net product revenue of about $555 million and continued share gains as the leading TKI in second-line-plus kidney cancer and the oral market leader in neuroendocrine tumors. Full-year 2026 net product revenue guidance of roughly $2.325 to $2.425 billion assumes continued demand growth. As long as this franchise compounds, it funds both buybacks and pipeline investment.
2. Zanzalintinib pipeline transition
Zanzalintinib is the designed successor to cabozantinib and the key to extending the story past the patent cliff. The STELLAR-303 colorectal-cancer trial met its overall-survival endpoint, an NDA in combination with atezolizumab was accepted for U.S. review, and a decision is expected around December 2026. A colorectal launch late in 2026, plus additional STELLAR trials in kidney and other cancers, would give Exelixis a second commercial pillar.
3. Profitability and capital returns
Exelixis is unusual among biotechs in being consistently profitable, with Q1 2026 non-GAAP net income of about $233 million (roughly $0.87 diluted per share) and operating margins that expanded on disciplined costs. It ended the period with roughly $1.65 billion in cash and marketable securities and authorized a new $750 million share-repurchase program, so it can invest in the pipeline while returning capital.
4. Label and indication expansion
Beyond colorectal cancer, Exelixis is pursuing zanzalintinib and cabozantinib in additional tumor types, and cabozantinib itself continues to add approved settings over time. Each new indication broadens the addressable population and reduces reliance on any single use. The breadth of the STELLAR development program is what could turn a one-drug company into a multi-indication oncology franchise.
What could weigh on EXEL?
The dominant risk is single-franchise concentration: the large majority of revenue comes from cabozantinib, so any competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would hit the whole company. Cabozantinib faces a patent cliff and generic competition risk later this decade (litigation has delayed but not removed it), which makes the zanzalintinib transition critical and time-sensitive. Pipeline risk is real, as trials can miss endpoints or draw a narrow label, and Exelixis has already discontinued some zanzalintinib programs such as head and neck cancer. Regulatory timing, including the roughly December 2026 colorectal decision, can slip. Competition in kidney and colorectal cancer from large pharma and other TKIs and immunotherapies is intense, and the stock can move sharply on binary clinical and regulatory news.
Where EXEL trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are EXEL's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for EXEL as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a EXEL forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the EXEL guide and whether EXEL is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the EXEL outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Exelixis (EXEL) is Cabozantinib franchise growth, with revenue (ttm) at ~$2.2 billion (Q1 2026 total revenue was ~$611 million, up ~10% year over year). If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is the dominant risk is single-franchise concentration: the large majority of revenue comes from cabozantinib, so any competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would hit the whole company. No one can predict the price, so treat any EXEL forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for Exelixis (EXEL)?
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No one can reliably predict where EXEL will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Exelixis higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive EXEL higher?
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The main growth drivers are Cabozantinib franchise growth; Zanzalintinib pipeline transition; Profitability and capital returns. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to EXEL?
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The dominant risk is single-franchise concentration: the large majority of revenue comes from cabozantinib, so any competitive, safety, or reimbursement setback in kidney cancer would hit the whole company. Cabozantinib faces a patent cliff and generic competition risk later this decade (litigation has delayed but not removed it), which makes the zanzalintinib transition critical and time-sensitive. Pipeline risk is real, as trials can miss endpoints or draw a narrow label, and Exelixis has already discontinued some zanzalintinib programs such as head and neck cancer. Regulatory timing, including the roughly December 2026 colorectal decision, can slip. Competition in kidney and colorectal cancer from large pharma and other TKIs and immunotherapies is intense, and the stock can move sharply on binary clinical and regulatory news.
Will EXEL stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Exelixis's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is EXEL a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the EXEL "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.