Expedia Group (EXPE) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Expedia Group (EXPE) right now is B2B travel-supply growth: Expedia's B2B segment, which powers travel booking for airlines, banks, loyalty programs, and other partners, has been the company's fastest-growing engine, expanding at double-digit rates and outpacing the consumer business. Revenue (FY2025) is ~$14.7 billion (up ~8% year over year). If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is expedia's revenue is almost entirely dependent on travel volumes, so a global recession, geopolitical disruption, or renewed travel restrictions would hit gross bookings quickly. No one can predict where EXPE trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Expedia Group (EXPE) higher?
1. B2B travel-supply growth
Expedia's B2B segment, which powers travel booking for airlines, banks, loyalty programs, and other partners, has been the company's fastest-growing engine, expanding at double-digit rates and outpacing the consumer business. Because B2B leverages the same underlying supply and technology, incremental partner volume can flow through at attractive margins. Continued expansion here is central to the growth thesis.
2. Brand simplification and One Key loyalty
Management has narrowed focus onto its core brands (Brand Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo) and unified loyalty into the One Key program spanning those brands. The goal is more repeat direct bookings, higher app engagement, and lower reliance on paid marketing channels. If loyalty deepens, customer acquisition costs fall and lifetime value rises.
3. Profitability and capital returns
Following a costly technology replatforming, Expedia has shifted toward margin expansion, with adjusted EBITDA rising faster than revenue in recent quarters (Q1 2026 adjusted EPS jumped to about $1.96 from $0.40 a year earlier). The company has been buying back stock and pays a modest dividend, so per-share earnings can grow faster than the top line even at single-digit revenue growth.
4. Vrbo and alternative accommodations
Vrbo gives Expedia a meaningful position in the whole-home and vacation-rental category, with roughly 2.4 million alternative-accommodation listings. Reaccelerating Vrbo after its own migration onto Expedia's unified platform would broaden supply and let the company compete more directly with Airbnb for non-hotel travel spend, a category that has been growing faster than traditional lodging.
What could weigh on EXPE?
Expedia's revenue is almost entirely dependent on travel volumes, so a global recession, geopolitical disruption, or renewed travel restrictions would hit gross bookings quickly. It competes against a larger and faster-growing Booking Holdings, which has generally led on room-night growth and margin, and against Airbnb in the alternative-accommodation category where brand loyalty is strong. A major structural threat is that AI-native travel assistants and Google's travel tools could answer and book trips without sending travelers to Expedia's sites, raising customer acquisition costs or disintermediating the platform entirely. The company also carries meaningful exposure to marketing spend on Google, foreign-currency swings, and execution risk from its ongoing technology and loyalty transitions.
Where EXPE trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are EXPE's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for EXPE as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a EXPE forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the EXPE guide and whether EXPE is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the EXPE outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Expedia Group (EXPE) is B2B travel-supply growth, with revenue (fy2025) at ~$14.7 billion (up ~8% year over year). If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is expedia's revenue is almost entirely dependent on travel volumes, so a global recession, geopolitical disruption, or renewed travel restrictions would hit gross bookings quickly. No one can predict the price, so treat any EXPE forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for Expedia Group (EXPE)?
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No one can reliably predict where EXPE will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Expedia Group higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive EXPE higher?
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The main growth drivers are B2B travel-supply growth; Brand simplification and One Key loyalty; Profitability and capital returns. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to EXPE?
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Expedia's revenue is almost entirely dependent on travel volumes, so a global recession, geopolitical disruption, or renewed travel restrictions would hit gross bookings quickly. It competes against a larger and faster-growing Booking Holdings, which has generally led on room-night growth and margin, and against Airbnb in the alternative-accommodation category where brand loyalty is strong. A major structural threat is that AI-native travel assistants and Google's travel tools could answer and book trips without sending travelers to Expedia's sites, raising customer acquisition costs or disintermediating the platform entirely. The company also carries meaningful exposure to marketing spend on Google, foreign-currency swings, and execution risk from its ongoing technology and loyalty transitions.
Will EXPE stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Expedia Group's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is EXPE a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the EXPE "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.