Joby Aviation (JOBY) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving Joby Aviation (JOBY) right now is Lead in FAA certification: Joby has completed Stage 4 of the FAA's five-stage type certification process, leaving the Stage 5 type certificate as the final gate before commercial passenger service. Revenue (Q1 2026) is ~$24 million (mostly acquired Blade passenger business, not eVTOL). If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is joby is effectively pre-revenue on its core product: the bulk of its reported revenue comes from the acquired Blade helicopter business, not its own eVTOL aircraft, and it posted a net loss of roughly $110 million in Q1 2026. No one can predict where JOBY trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive Joby Aviation (JOBY) higher?
Lead in FAA certification
Joby has completed Stage 4 of the FAA's five-stage type certification process, leaving the Stage 5 type certificate as the final gate before commercial passenger service. Being ahead of rivals on the regulatory path is widely viewed as the most important near-term advantage in the eVTOL race, since no air-taxi business exists until the aircraft is certified.
Strategic backers and balance sheet
Toyota provides manufacturing expertise and capital, Delta and Uber provide distribution, and the company held roughly $2.5 billion in cash and short-term investments as of Q1 2026. That gives Joby an unusually long runway for a pre-revenue company, several years at recent burn rates, to reach certification and scale production without immediate financing pressure.
Vertically integrated transportation model
Rather than only selling aircraft to others, Joby intends to own the full stack: build the aircraft and operate the air-taxi service itself, distributed through Uber and the acquired Blade passenger network. If it works, this captures more of the per-ride economics than a pure manufacturer would, and the Blade business already generates real passenger revenue today.
Near-term commercial milestones
Joby reaffirmed full-year 2026 revenue guidance of roughly $105 to $115 million and is targeting first passenger flights in 2026, with planned launches in U.S. cities and an international debut with Uber in Dubai. Demonstration flights, including between JFK and Manhattan, signal operational readiness ahead of certification.
What could weigh on JOBY?
Joby is effectively pre-revenue on its core product: the bulk of its reported revenue comes from the acquired Blade helicopter business, not its own eVTOL aircraft, and it posted a net loss of roughly $110 million in Q1 2026. It guided to using $340 to $370 million of cash in the first half of 2026 alone, and reaching profitability is years away and not assured. Certification could slip, raising the chance of further dilutive equity or convertible raises, and the entire thesis depends on an air-taxi market that does not yet exist at scale. The stock is highly speculative and can move sharply on certification, funding, or partnership news.
How to think about a JOBY forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the JOBY guide and whether JOBY is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the JOBY outlook
The bottom line: what is driving Joby Aviation (JOBY) is Lead in FAA certification, with revenue (q1 2026) at ~$24 million (mostly acquired Blade passenger business, not eVTOL). If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is joby is effectively pre-revenue on its core product: the bulk of its reported revenue comes from the acquired Blade helicopter business, not its own eVTOL aircraft, and it posted a net loss of roughly $110 million in Q1 2026. No one can predict the price, so treat any JOBY forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for Joby Aviation (JOBY)?
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No one can reliably predict where JOBY will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push Joby Aviation higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive JOBY higher?
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The main growth drivers are Lead in FAA certification; Strategic backers and balance sheet; Vertically integrated transportation model. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to JOBY?
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Joby is effectively pre-revenue on its core product: the bulk of its reported revenue comes from the acquired Blade helicopter business, not its own eVTOL aircraft, and it posted a net loss of roughly $110 million in Q1 2026. It guided to using $340 to $370 million of cash in the first half of 2026 alone, and reaching profitability is years away and not assured. Certification could slip, raising the chance of further dilutive equity or convertible raises, and the entire thesis depends on an air-taxi market that does not yet exist at scale. The stock is highly speculative and can move sharply on certification, funding, or partnership news.
Will JOBY stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. Joby Aviation's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is JOBY a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the JOBY "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.