Is JOBY a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Lead in FAA certification, with revenue (ttm) at ~$116 million (mostly acquired Blade passenger business, not eVTOL). The bear case rests on joby is effectively pre-revenue on its core product: the bulk of its reported revenue comes from the acquired Blade helicopter business, not its own eVTOL aircraft, and it posted a net loss of about $245 million in the June 2026 quarter and about $878 million over the trailing twelve months. Analysts covering it are spread from $4.00 to $18.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. Joby is effectively pre-revenue on its core product: the bulk of its reported revenue comes from the acquired Blade helicopter business, not its own eVTOL aircraft, and it posted a net loss of about $245 million in the June 2026 quarter and about $878 million over the trailing twelve months. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $4.00, -14.2% from the $4.66 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Lead in FAA certification. Joby completed Stage 4 of the FAA's five-stage type certification process earlier in 2026, leaving the Stage 5 type certificate as the final gate before commercial passenger service. The most optimistic analyst target on JOBY is $18.00, +286.3% from the $4.66 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

Joby is effectively pre-revenue on its core product: the bulk of its reported revenue comes from the acquired Blade helicopter business, not its own eVTOL aircraft, and it posted a net loss of about $245 million in the June 2026 quarter and about $878 million over the trailing twelve months. Reaching profitability is years away and not assured. In October 2026 a federal jury awarded supplier Aerosonic about $116.9 million in a trade-secrets case; Joby plans to challenge it, but the outcome adds legal and cash risk. Certification could slip, raising the chance of further dilutive equity or convertible raises, and the entire thesis depends on an air-taxi market that does not yet exist at scale. The stock is highly speculative, has fallen about 67% in 2026, and can move sharply on certification, funding, legal, or partnership news. The most pessimistic published target is $4.00, -14.2% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

Joby Aviation designs and intends to manufacture and operate electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, small piloted air taxis built to carry a few passengers quietly

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Lead in FAA certification) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (joby is effectively pre-revenue on its core product: the bulk of its reported revenue comes from the acquired Blade helicopter business, not its own eVTOL aircraft, and it posted a net loss of about $245 million in the June 2026 quarter and about $878 million over the trailing twelve months) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

Joby Aviation develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, small piloted air taxis meant to carry a few passengers quietly over cities. It plans to both build the aircraft, with help from Toyota, and operate the ride service itself, distributed through partners like Uber and its acquired Blade passenger business. Commercial passenger service is targeted to begin in 2026.

There is no single answer; it depends on your goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. JOBY is a speculative, pre-commercial bet on the air-taxi market with about $2.26 billion of cash and a certification lead, but also heavy cash burn, minimal core revenue, and a pending legal fight over a $116.9 million jury award. Analysts are split: the average rating is hold, with an average target near $10 against a price near $4.70. It can swing sharply on news. Many investors size such positions small and hold for years, if at all.

No. Joby is not profitable and remains effectively pre-revenue on its core eVTOL aircraft. In the June 2026 quarter it reported about $38.6 million of revenue (mostly from the acquired Blade helicopter business) and a net loss of about $245 million, and over the trailing twelve months it lost about $878 million. The company is years from profitability, which depends on certifying and scaling its air-taxi service.