Is NOV a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Offshore and International Equipment Cycle, with revenue (fy 2025) at ~$8.74 billion. The bear case rests on the largest risk is the oil and gas capital-spending cycle: when operators and drilling contractors cut budgets, demand for NOV's equipment, drill pipe, and aftermarket parts falls quickly, and global drilling activity already declined about 7% in 2025. Analysts covering it are spread from $17.00 to $26.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The largest risk is the oil and gas capital-spending cycle: when operators and drilling contractors cut budgets, demand for NOV's equipment, drill pipe, and aftermarket parts falls quickly, and global drilling activity already declined about 7% in 2025. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $17.00, -12.3% from the $19.39 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Offshore and International Equipment Cycle. NOV's Energy Equipment segment, roughly 58% of revenue, is benefiting from a multi-year recovery in offshore and international project sanctioning, with Q4 2025 segment revenue up 7% sequentially and 4% year over year. The most optimistic analyst target on NOV is $26.00, +34.1% from the $19.39 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

The largest risk is the oil and gas capital-spending cycle: when operators and drilling contractors cut budgets, demand for NOV's equipment, drill pipe, and aftermarket parts falls quickly, and global drilling activity already declined about 7% in 2025. Q1 2026 results underscored the fragility, with revenue of $2.05 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $177 million, and EPS of just $0.05 that missed estimates, hurt by Middle East conflict-related disruptions. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for slightly lower revenue and EBITDA in line to slightly below 2025, with results weighted to the second half. A declining backlog and book-to-bill below 100%, geopolitical instability in key regions, and a slower-than-expected offshore recovery all add uncertainty, and net income of $145 million in 2025 leaves the trailing valuation sensitive to any further earnings weakness. The most pessimistic published target is $17.00, -12.3% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

NOV Inc, known as National Oilwell Varco until its 2021 rebrand, is a Houston-based designer and manufacturer of equipment, technology, and components used across the oil and gas i

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Offshore and International Equipment Cycle) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the largest risk is the oil and gas capital-spending cycle: when operators and drilling contractors cut budgets, demand for NOV's equipment, drill pipe, and aftermarket parts falls quickly, and global drilling activity already declined about 7% in 2025) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

NOV Inc, formerly National Oilwell Varco, designs and manufactures equipment, technology, and components for the oil and gas industry. It runs two segments: Energy Equipment, which builds offshore rig systems, subsea and production equipment, and process technologies, and Energy Products and Services, which supplies drill pipe, downhole tools, drill bits, coiled tubing, and aftermarket parts. It sells globally to drilling contractors and oil companies.

That depends on your view of the oilfield equipment cycle and offshore spending. NOV generated about $8.74 billion in 2025 revenue and $876 million of free cash flow but earned only $145 million in net income, so the trailing P/E looks very high while the forward multiple is near 18x. Management guides 2026 to be flat to slightly softer. Whether that is attractive is a judgment based on your own goals and time horizon.

The high trailing P/E of roughly 70x to 75x is driven by a low earnings denominator, not a high price. NOV earned just $145 million, or about $0.39 per diluted share, in 2025 despite roughly $8.74 billion of revenue, because margins are cyclically depressed. On cash flow and forward earnings estimates near 18x, the valuation looks far less extreme, which is why investors focus on EBITDA, free cash flow, and backlog for this stock.