NOV Inc (NOV) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
What is actually driving NOV Inc (NOV) right now is Offshore and International Equipment Cycle: NOV's Energy Equipment segment, roughly 58% of revenue, is benefiting from a multi-year recovery in offshore and international project sanctioning, with Q4 2025 segment revenue up 7% sequentially and 4% year over year. Revenue (FY 2025) is ~$8.74 billion. If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is the largest risk is the oil and gas capital-spending cycle: when operators and drilling contractors cut budgets, demand for NOV's equipment, drill pipe, and aftermarket parts falls quickly, and global drilling activity already declined about 7% in 2025. No one can predict where NOV trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.
What could drive NOV Inc (NOV) higher?
1. Offshore and International Equipment Cycle
NOV's Energy Equipment segment, roughly 58% of revenue, is benefiting from a multi-year recovery in offshore and international project sanctioning, with Q4 2025 segment revenue up 7% sequentially and 4% year over year. Deepwater, subsea, and production-systems orders tend to be long-cycle and less sensitive to short-term oil price swings than land drilling. This mix shift is the primary reason NOV has held revenue roughly flat while global activity declined.
2. Backlog and Book-to-Bill Visibility
The company ended 2025 with a $4.34 billion backlog and a book-to-bill ratio near 91%, giving multi-quarter revenue visibility even as new orders soften. A backlog above four billion dollars provides a cushion against a weak spot market for drilling equipment. Investors watch order intake closely, since a book-to-bill below 100% signals the backlog is drawing down rather than building.
3. Cash Generation and Shareholder Returns
NOV produced about $876 million of free cash flow and $1.03 billion of adjusted EBITDA in 2025, exceeding the billion-dollar EBITDA mark for the third consecutive year. The company returned $505 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, including $190 million in dividends. This cash discipline, paired with a modest dividend, is central to the story given the muted growth outlook.
4. Energy Transition and Diversification Optionality
NOV supplies equipment for offshore wind installation vessels, process and flow technologies, and industrial markets that sit alongside its core oilfield business. This diversification gives the company exposure to energy-transition capital spending without abandoning its dominant conventional franchise. The scale of that contribution is still small relative to oil and gas, so it is an option on future growth rather than a current earnings driver.
What could weigh on NOV?
The largest risk is the oil and gas capital-spending cycle: when operators and drilling contractors cut budgets, demand for NOV's equipment, drill pipe, and aftermarket parts falls quickly, and global drilling activity already declined about 7% in 2025. Q1 2026 results underscored the fragility, with revenue of $2.05 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $177 million, and EPS of just $0.05 that missed estimates, hurt by Middle East conflict-related disruptions. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for slightly lower revenue and EBITDA in line to slightly below 2025, with results weighted to the second half. A declining backlog and book-to-bill below 100%, geopolitical instability in key regions, and a slower-than-expected offshore recovery all add uncertainty, and net income of $145 million in 2025 leaves the trailing valuation sensitive to any further earnings weakness.
Where NOV trades today
A forecast starts from where the stock actually is. These are NOV's current figures, not a projection: the drivers and risks above are what would move them.
Snapshot for NOV as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
How to think about a NOV forecast
Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.
For the full picture, see the NOV guide and whether NOV is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.
The bottom line on the NOV outlook
The bottom line: what is driving NOV Inc (NOV) is Offshore and International Equipment Cycle, with revenue (fy 2025) at ~$8.74 billion. If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is the largest risk is the oil and gas capital-spending cycle: when operators and drilling contractors cut budgets, demand for NOV's equipment, drill pipe, and aftermarket parts falls quickly, and global drilling activity already declined about 7% in 2025. No one can predict the price, so treat any NOV forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
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FAQ
What is the forecast for NOV Inc (NOV)?
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No one can reliably predict where NOV will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push NOV Inc higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.
What could drive NOV higher?
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The main growth drivers are Offshore and International Equipment Cycle; Backlog and Book-to-Bill Visibility; Cash Generation and Shareholder Returns. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.
What are the risks to NOV?
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The largest risk is the oil and gas capital-spending cycle: when operators and drilling contractors cut budgets, demand for NOV's equipment, drill pipe, and aftermarket parts falls quickly, and global drilling activity already declined about 7% in 2025. Q1 2026 results underscored the fragility, with revenue of $2.05 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $177 million, and EPS of just $0.05 that missed estimates, hurt by Middle East conflict-related disruptions. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for slightly lower revenue and EBITDA in line to slightly below 2025, with results weighted to the second half. A declining backlog and book-to-bill below 100%, geopolitical instability in key regions, and a slower-than-expected offshore recovery all add uncertainty, and net income of $145 million in 2025 leaves the trailing valuation sensitive to any further earnings weakness.
Will NOV stock go up in 2026?
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Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. NOV Inc's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.
Is NOV a buy?
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That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the NOV "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.