Is ONB a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested. The bull case for Old National Bancorp (ONB) rests on Growth through acquisition and scale: Old National has expanded aggressively, from the 2021 merger of equals with First Midwest to the May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, which pushed total assets to roughly $70 billion. The bear case rests on old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. Analysts covering it publish targets from $27.00 to $32.00 against a $26.83 price, so even the professionals disagree by 17% of their own average. We do not give a verdict. What follows is each case at full strength, so you can decide which set of assumptions you actually believe. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is the holding company for Old National Bank, a super-regional bank headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, with a large operational base in Chicago and a footprint concentrated across the Midwest. Following its May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, the company holds roughly $70 billion in total assets and more than $30 billion in wealth assets under management, making it among the top 25 banking companies headquartered in the United States and one of the largest commercial banks in the Midwest. Like most banks, it earns money in two broad ways: net interest income, the spread between what it earns on loans and securities and what it pays on deposits (roughly $2.4 billion on a full-year 2025 basis), and noninterest fee income from wealth management, mortgage banking, treasury management, and capital markets. Old National's story in recent years has been one of growth through acquisition, capped by its 2021 merger of equals with First Midwest Bancorp and the May 1, 2025 acquisition of Minnesota-based Bremer, which added about $16.3 billion of assets, $11.1 billion of loans, and $12.9 billion of deposits for roughly $1.3 billion in stock and cash. For full-year 2025 the company reported net income applicable to common shares of about $653.1 million and GAAP diluted EPS of $1.79, or about $808.6 million and $2.21 on an adjusted basis that strips out merger charges, which management described as record adjusted net income and EPS. The net interest margin ran around 3.65% in the fourth quarter and the adjusted efficiency ratio was about 48.8% for the year, both signs of a profitable, cost-disciplined operation whose next chapter depends on integrating Bremer and continuing to scale fee-based wealth revenue.
The bull case: what would have to be true for $32.00
The most optimistic published target on ONB is $32.00, +19.3% from the $26.83 price as of July 2026. Getting there needs the following to work close to its best case, not merely to avoid going wrong.
1. Growth through acquisition and scale.
Old National has expanded aggressively, from the 2021 merger of equals with First Midwest to the May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, which pushed total assets to roughly $70 billion. Greater scale spreads fixed costs like technology and compliance across a bigger balance sheet and deepens the bank's presence across the Midwest. The strategy has consistently added loans, deposits, and fee revenue, though it also raises the stakes on integration execution.
2. Solid margin and cost discipline.
The net interest margin ran around 3.65% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a healthy level for a regional bank, and the full-year adjusted efficiency ratio was about 48.8%, meaning the bank spent under 49 cents to generate each dollar of revenue. That combination of a decent spread on lending and lean operating costs is what drove record adjusted net income and EPS for 2025. Sustaining margin as deposit costs and rates move is the key variable.
3. Growing fee-based wealth revenue.
Beyond lending, Old National earns fees through its 1834 wealth management arm, mortgage banking, treasury management, and capital markets. Wealth and trust fees rose roughly 12% year over year in 2025 as assets under management exceeded $30 billion, and management has targeted lifting fee-based income toward a larger share of total revenue. Growing these streams reduces the bank's dependence on the interest-rate cycle alone and adds more stable, recurring revenue.
4. Capital return through dividends.
Old National pays a quarterly cash dividend (recently $0.145 per share, about $0.58 annualized) for a yield of roughly 2.2%, giving shareholders an income component alongside any share-price movement. The bank has maintained its dividend through its acquisition-driven growth, and a reasonable payout ratio leaves room to keep funding both the dividend and balance-sheet expansion. Steady capital return is a core part of the appeal of many regional-bank stocks.
The bear case: what would have to be true for $27.00
The most pessimistic published target is $27.00, +0.6% from the current price. That is not a floor and not a forecast; it is roughly what one analyst thinks Old National Bancorp is worth if the risks below bite instead of the drivers above.
Old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. As an economically cyclical regional bank, it is exposed to the credit cycle, where a recession or regional downturn would raise loan losses, particularly in commercial real estate and commercial lending that make up a meaningful part of its book. Its acquisitive strategy carries integration and execution risk, since merging Bremer's systems, staff, and customers while retaining deposits and controlling costs is not guaranteed, and future deals add more. Geographic concentration in the Midwest means regional economic weakness hits harder than for a nationally diversified bank. Finally, broader risks (deposit competition, fintech disruption, regulatory and capital requirements, and market volatility affecting its securities portfolio) can all weigh on results.
The bear case deserves the same attention as the bull case, and usually gets less. If you are holding ONB already, the question is not whether these risks exist but whether any of them has moved from possible to actually happening in the reported numbers.
Where analysts land on ONB
11 analysts cover ONB, with an average target of $29.82 (+11.1% against $26.83) and a split of 8 buy, 4 hold, 0 sell. Bear in mind sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market, so that split is not a balanced vote. The full target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted are on the ONB forecast and price target page.
How is ONB valued? (as of JULY 2026)
Snapshot for ONB as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
- Revenue (net interest income + fees, FY2025): ~$2.9 billion
- Net Interest Income (FY2025): ~$2.4 billion
- Net Income to Common (FY2025): ~$653 million GAAP (~$809 million adjusted)
- Diluted EPS (FY2025): $1.79 GAAP ($2.21 adjusted)
- Market Capitalization: ~$9.9 billion
- P/E Ratio (trailing): ~13
- Dividend Yield: ~2.2%, paid quarterly
Reading a regional bank means looking past a single earnings number to a few structural metrics. The net interest margin (around 3.65% in Q4 2025) shows how profitably the bank lends relative to its funding costs, and the efficiency ratio (an adjusted ~48.8% for 2025) measures how lean the operation is, where lower is better. Note the gap between GAAP EPS of $1.79 and adjusted EPS of $2.21, which reflects one-time merger and integration charges from the Bremer deal, so the adjusted figure is a cleaner read on underlying run-rate earnings. A trailing P/E near 13 is in the typical range for regional banks, which tend to trade at lower multiples than the broader market because their earnings are cyclical and rate-sensitive. The distinctive feature here is the growth-by-acquisition scale-up; the open question is how much of the Bremer benefit is already reflected in the share price versus still to be realized through integration.
How do you decide if ONB is a buy?
Rather than asking whether ONB is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:
- Thesis: do you believe the bull case above, and is it still true today?
- Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
- Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
- Overlap: check whether you already hold ONB indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.
What would change your mind on ONB
Write the tripwires down before you need them. Deciding what would falsify your view is far harder once a position is moving against you.
- Bull case breaks if: Growth through acquisition and scale stalls in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative around them.
- Bear case breaks if: old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings fails to materialise over several reporting periods while the drivers keep compounding.
- Neither matters if: the position has grown large enough that being wrong would damage the whole portfolio. Sizing overrides the argument.
For the full picture, see the ONB stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about ONB against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.
Investing in Old National Bancorp with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how ONB fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
Is ONB a good stock to buy right now?
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That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Growth through acquisition and scale, with revenue (net interest income + fees, fy2025) at ~$2.9 billion. The bear case rests on old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. Analysts covering it are spread from $27.00 to $32.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.
Should I sell ONB?
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Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. Old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $27.00, +0.6% from the $26.83 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What is the bull case for ONB?
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Growth through acquisition and scale. Old National has expanded aggressively, from the 2021 merger of equals with First Midwest to the May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, which pushed total assets to roughly $70 billion. The most optimistic analyst target on ONB is $32.00, +19.3% from the $26.83 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.
What is the bear case for ONB?
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Old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings. As an economically cyclical regional bank, it is exposed to the credit cycle, where a recession or regional downturn would raise loan losses, particularly in commercial real estate and commercial lending that make up a meaningful part of its book. Its acquisitive strategy carries integration and execution risk, since merging Bremer's systems, staff, and customers while retaining deposits and controlling costs is not guaranteed, and future deals add more. Geographic concentration in the Midwest means regional economic weakness hits harder than for a nationally diversified bank. Finally, broader risks (deposit competition, fintech disruption, regulatory and capital requirements, and market volatility affecting its securities portfolio) can all weigh on results. The most pessimistic published target is $27.00, +0.6% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.
What does Old National Bancorp do?
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Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is the holding company for Old National Bank, a super-regional bank headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, with a large operational base in Chicag
What would have to change for ONB to stop being worth holding?
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Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Growth through acquisition and scale) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (old National is sensitive to interest rates: net interest income (about $2.4 billion in 2025) is its largest revenue line, so falling rates, deposit repricing, or an inverted yield curve can compress the margin and earnings) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.
What does Old National Bancorp do?
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Old National Bancorp is the holding company for Old National Bank, a super-regional bank headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, with a major operational base in Chicago and a footprint concentrated across the Midwest. After its May 2025 acquisition of Bremer Bank, it holds roughly $70 billion in assets. It offers commercial and consumer banking, mortgages, treasury management, capital markets, and wealth management, and earns money mainly from net interest income plus fee income.
Does ONB pay a dividend?
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Yes. Old National pays a quarterly cash dividend, recently $0.145 per share (about $0.58 annualized), for a yield of roughly 2.2%. The bank has maintained its dividend through its acquisition-driven growth, and a moderate payout ratio leaves room to keep funding both the dividend and balance-sheet expansion. Dividend amounts and timing are set by the board each quarter.
What was the Bremer Bank acquisition?
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On May 1, 2025, Old National completed its acquisition of Minnesota-based Bremer Financial and its Bremer Bank subsidiary. At closing Bremer had about $16.3 billion of total assets, $11.1 billion of loans, and $12.9 billion of deposits, and the consideration totaled roughly $1.3 billion in Old National stock and cash. The deal pushed Old National to about $70 billion in total assets and expanded its Midwest presence, especially in Minnesota and the upper Midwest.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice, and gives no verdict on ONB. Analyst targets referenced here come from a July 2026 pull of published third-party research and change constantly. Verify current figures with your broker before acting on them.