Is TEM a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Explosive Revenue Growth with a Clear Path to Profitability, with revenue (fy2025, reported) at ~$1.27 billion. The bear case rests on tempus remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, with a full-year 2025 net loss of $245 million (which included $136 million in stock-based compensation), and the path to sustained GAAP profitability is long; Q1 2026 showed a net loss of $125.9 million, widening 85% year-over-year, and EPS missed analyst estimates by 34%. Analysts covering it are spread from $35.00 to $100.00, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. Tempus remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, with a full-year 2025 net loss of $245 million (which included $136 million in stock-based compensation), and the path to sustained GAAP profitability is long; Q1 2026 showed a net loss of $125.9 million, widening 85% year-over-year, and EPS missed analyst estimates by 34%. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $35.00, -16.4% from the $41.85 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Explosive Revenue Growth with a Clear Path to Profitability. Tempus grew full-year 2025 revenue roughly 83% year-over-year to approximately $1.27 billion, then guided for $1.59 billion in 2026, representing continued strong growth. The most optimistic analyst target on TEM is $100.00, +138.9% from the $41.85 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

Tempus remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, with a full-year 2025 net loss of $245 million (which included $136 million in stock-based compensation), and the path to sustained GAAP profitability is long; Q1 2026 showed a net loss of $125.9 million, widening 85% year-over-year, and EPS missed analyst estimates by 34%. Reimbursement risk is material: a significant portion of Tempus's diagnostics revenue depends on favorable coverage decisions from CMS and private payers, and adverse rulings on NGS tests or laboratory-developed tests (LDTs) could reduce revenue per test sharply. Regulatory scrutiny of LDTs by the FDA, ongoing data privacy obligations under HIPAA, and the risk that competitors such as Guardant Health, Illumina, Roche, or PathAI develop comparable datasets or lower-priced tests could compress both volume growth and pricing power over time. The most pessimistic published target is $35.00, -16.4% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM) is a Chicago-based technology company that applies artificial intelligence to precision medicine, primarily in oncology but increasingly across cardiology,

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Explosive Revenue Growth with a Clear Path to Profitability) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (tempus remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, with a full-year 2025 net loss of $245 million (which included $136 million in stock-based compensation), and the path to sustained GAAP profitability is long; Q1 2026 showed a net loss of $125.9 million, widening 85% year-over-year, and EPS missed analyst estimates by 34%) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

Tempus AI runs a two-sided platform in healthcare. On one side, it performs genomic and molecular diagnostic tests (NGS, hereditary genetics, pharmacogenomics) for patients through its CLIA-certified labs, generating revenue per test. On the other side, it licenses the de-identified, linked clinical and molecular data from those tests to pharmaceutical companies, health systems, and researchers who use it for drug development, clinical trials, and AI model training.

That depends entirely on an investor's risk tolerance, time horizon, and view on whether Tempus can convert rapid revenue growth into durable profitability. The bull case is a compounding data flywheel in a massive market; the bear case is that the company is not yet GAAP profitable, net losses widened in Q1 2026, and the valuation at roughly 6.6 times trailing revenue already prices in significant success. Neither outcome is certain.

No. Tempus AI does not pay a dividend. The company is in a high-growth, pre-profitability phase and retains all available capital for operations, acquisitions, and R&D investment. Investors in TEM are generally seeking capital appreciation from growth, not income from distributions.