TMC the metals company (TMC) Stock Forecast: What Could Drive It in 2026

Short answer

What is actually driving TMC the metals company (TMC) right now is Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource: TMC's pitch is the scale of its acreage. Revenue is $0 (pre-revenue; no product sales). If that keeps playing out, the setup is favourable; the risk to it is the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. No one can predict where TMC trades, and Walnut does not publish targets, so treat this as a scenario, not a price target or prediction.

What could drive TMC the metals company (TMC) higher?

1. Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource.

TMC's pitch is the scale of its acreage. The NORI-D area carries declared probable reserves of roughly 51 million wet tonnes grading about 1.4% nickel, 0.13% cobalt, 1.1% copper, and 31% manganese, and the company points to a much larger measured-and-indicated and inferred resource across its wider NORI and TOML areas, into the low billions of tonnes. The company has published its own economic studies citing a combined net present value in the low tens of billions of dollars, though those are company estimates that depend on metal prices, costs, and production assumptions that remain unproven at commercial scale.

2. The US permitting path.

Following a 2025 US executive order on seabed mineral resources, NOAA modernized its rules under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA), effective in January 2026. TMC's US subsidiary filed the first consolidated exploration license and commercial recovery permit application under that framework. NOAA found the application in substantial compliance in March 2026 and in full compliance in May 2026. This domestic path is the central catalyst behind the investment case, and it is also the source of the international controversy, because it operates outside the International Seabed Authority (ISA) framework.

3. Partners and capital.

TMC relies on partnerships rather than building everything itself. Allseas, an offshore engineering group, has agreed to fund a significant portion of pre-production costs and signed a commercial nodule recovery agreement targeting around 3.0 million wet tonnes per year, with commissioning targeted for late 2027. On the processing and capital side, Korea Zinc, a major non-ferrous metals refiner, made an equity investment of roughly $85 million in 2025 for about a 5% stake. PAMCO, Glencore's XPS, and Hatch have also been cited as parties that have worked with nodule-derived material.

4. Critical-minerals policy tailwind.

TMC frames itself as a potential domestic supply of metals that are currently concentrated in a small number of foreign producers and refiners. Western governments' interest in critical-mineral supply security, and US policy support for seabed minerals specifically, is the macro backdrop the company leans on. Whether that policy interest translates into permits, financing, and offtake at the scale TMC needs is unresolved.

What could weigh on TMC?

The dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Strong, organized environmental opposition argues that mining the Clarion-Clipperton Zone could cause lasting harm to poorly understood deep-sea ecosystems, which adds legal and reputational risk. The company is pre-revenue and burns cash each quarter, so it depends on continued financing and partner funding to reach production. The economics of recovering and processing nodules at commercial scale are unproven, and the whole thesis can move sharply on a single permitting, legal, or financing event.

How to think about a TMC forecast

Rather than chasing a price target, it tends to help to weigh the drivers above against the risks, decide how long you are willing to hold, and size the position so a wrong call is survivable. A “forecast” is really a probability-weighted view of those drivers playing out, not a number.

For the full picture, see the TMC guide and whether TMC is a buy. In Walnut you can pressure-test the thesis against your real portfolio.

The bottom line on the TMC outlook

The bottom line: what is driving TMC the metals company (TMC) is Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource, with revenue at $0 (pre-revenue; no product sales). If that keeps playing out the setup is favourable; the risk is the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. No one can predict the price, so treat any TMC forecast as a scenario, not a target or prediction, and decide from your own thesis and time horizon. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

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FAQ

What is the forecast for TMC the metals company (TMC)?

No one can reliably predict where TMC will trade, and Walnut does not publish price targets. What is more useful is the setup: the drivers that could push TMC the metals company higher and the risks that could weigh on it. This page lays out both so you can form your own view. Not a recommendation.

What could drive TMC higher?

The main growth drivers are Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource; The US permitting path; Partners and capital. Whether they play out is the real question, not a guaranteed path.

What are the risks to TMC?

Will TMC stock go up in 2026?

Nobody knows, and anyone who says they do is guessing. TMC the metals company's direction depends on whether the drivers above outweigh the risks, plus the broader market. Focus on the thesis and your time horizon rather than a single-year call.

Is TMC a buy?

That depends on your thesis, time horizon, and what you already own, not on a forecast. See the TMC "is it a buy?" page for a framework. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Walnut is informational, not investment advice. This page describes drivers and risks; it is not a price forecast, target, or recommendation. Markets are uncertain and past performance does not predict future results.