Is TMC a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)

That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource, with revenue at $0 (pre-revenue; no product sales). The bear case rests on the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Analysts covering it are spread from $10.00 to $12.30, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.

Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $10.00, +287.6% from the $2.58 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.

Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource. TMC's pitch is the scale of its acreage. The most optimistic analyst target on TMC is $12.30, +376.7% from the $2.58 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.

The dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Strong, organized environmental opposition argues that mining the Clarion-Clipperton Zone could cause lasting harm to poorly understood deep-sea ecosystems, which adds legal and reputational risk. The company is pre-revenue and burns cash each quarter, so it depends on continued financing and partner funding to reach production. The economics of recovering and processing nodules at commercial scale are unproven, and the whole thesis can move sharply on a single permitting, legal, or financing event. Timing is now a risk in its own right: NOAA certification has taken longer than expected, a domestic processing plant depends on government funding that has not been secured, and an environmental lawsuit targets the USA-B exploration application. With roughly $99 million of cash at June 30, 2026 against a second-quarter net loss of about $60 million, further delays raise the odds of dilutive financing. The most pessimistic published target is $10.00, +287.6% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.

TMC the metals company (TMC), headquartered in Vancouver, Canada and listed on Nasdaq, is a deep-sea mining developer focused on polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone

Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.

TMC is a deep-sea mining developer. It is working to harvest polymetallic nodules, metal-rich rocks that sit on the Pacific seafloor in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, which contain nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. Through subsidiaries NORI and TOML it holds exploration areas, and it partners with engineering and refining firms to move toward commercial recovery. It is pre-revenue and has not yet produced metals at scale.

Descriptive, not a recommendation. The bull case is a very large critical-metals resource, a US permitting path that reached full compliance in 2026, and partners like Allseas and Korea Zinc. The bear case is that TMC is pre-revenue, burns cash, faces an international legal dispute and a moratorium coalition, and depends on unproven economics, making the outcome close to binary. The shares fell about 62% in 2026 through October 16 as certification ran later than expected. Whether it fits depends on your goals and risk tolerance. Walnut is informational, not investment advice.

It is contested. TMC is pursuing US permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act through NOAA, which found its application in full compliance in 2026 and took public comment through October 19, 2026, though certification had not been granted as of mid-October. But this path operates outside the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the UN-affiliated body many nations view as the proper regulator. The ISA opened an inquiry into TMC's subsidiaries, and a coalition of nations backs a moratorium, so the legal status remains disputed.