Is TMC a Buy or a Sell? The Bull and Bear Case (2026)
Last updated July 2026
Short answer
Both cases are real, which is why the question is contested. The bull case for TMC the metals company (TMC) rests on Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource: TMC's pitch is the scale of its acreage. The bear case rests on the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Analysts covering it publish targets from $9.00 to $12.25 against a $3.46 price, so even the professionals disagree by 30% of their own average. We do not give a verdict. What follows is each case at full strength, so you can decide which set of assumptions you actually believe. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
TMC the metals company (TMC), headquartered in Vancouver, Canada and listed on Nasdaq, is a deep-sea mining developer focused on polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone of the Pacific Ocean. These potato-sized nodules sit on the abyssal seafloor roughly 4 kilometers down and contain nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese, four metals tied to batteries, electrification, and steel. TMC controls two exploration areas through its subsidiaries NORI (Nauru Ocean Resources Inc.) and TOML (Tonga Offshore Mining Ltd.), and it partners with engineering and refining firms rather than building the full supply chain itself. The company's plan is to recover nodules at sea, then process them on land into nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese products. It has declared what it describes as world-first probable nodule reserves at its NORI-D area, around 51 million wet tonnes, and points to a broader resource measured in the low billions of tonnes across its acreage. TMC went public in 2021 through a SPAC merger and has never generated product revenue; it remains a pre-revenue, development-stage company whose progress is measured in permits, partnerships, and engineering milestones rather than sales or profits.
The bull case: what would have to be true for $12.25
The most optimistic published target on TMC is $12.25, +254.0% from the $3.46 price as of July 2026. Getting there needs the following to work close to its best case, not merely to avoid going wrong.
1. Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource.
TMC's pitch is the scale of its acreage. The NORI-D area carries declared probable reserves of roughly 51 million wet tonnes grading about 1.4% nickel, 0.13% cobalt, 1.1% copper, and 31% manganese, and the company points to a much larger measured-and-indicated and inferred resource across its wider NORI and TOML areas, into the low billions of tonnes. The company has published its own economic studies citing a combined net present value in the low tens of billions of dollars, though those are company estimates that depend on metal prices, costs, and production assumptions that remain unproven at commercial scale.
2. The US permitting path.
Following a 2025 US executive order on seabed mineral resources, NOAA modernized its rules under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA), effective in January 2026. TMC's US subsidiary filed the first consolidated exploration license and commercial recovery permit application under that framework. NOAA found the application in substantial compliance in March 2026 and in full compliance in May 2026. This domestic path is the central catalyst behind the investment case, and it is also the source of the international controversy, because it operates outside the International Seabed Authority (ISA) framework.
3. Partners and capital.
TMC relies on partnerships rather than building everything itself. Allseas, an offshore engineering group, has agreed to fund a significant portion of pre-production costs and signed a commercial nodule recovery agreement targeting around 3.0 million wet tonnes per year, with commissioning targeted for late 2027. On the processing and capital side, Korea Zinc, a major non-ferrous metals refiner, made an equity investment of roughly $85 million in 2025 for about a 5% stake. PAMCO, Glencore's XPS, and Hatch have also been cited as parties that have worked with nodule-derived material.
4. Critical-minerals policy tailwind.
TMC frames itself as a potential domestic supply of metals that are currently concentrated in a small number of foreign producers and refiners. Western governments' interest in critical-mineral supply security, and US policy support for seabed minerals specifically, is the macro backdrop the company leans on. Whether that policy interest translates into permits, financing, and offtake at the scale TMC needs is unresolved.
The bear case: what would have to be true for $9.00
The most pessimistic published target is $9.00, +160.1% from the current price. That is not a floor and not a forecast; it is roughly what one analyst thinks TMC the metals company is worth if the risks below bite instead of the drivers above.
The dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Strong, organized environmental opposition argues that mining the Clarion-Clipperton Zone could cause lasting harm to poorly understood deep-sea ecosystems, which adds legal and reputational risk. The company is pre-revenue and burns cash each quarter, so it depends on continued financing and partner funding to reach production. The economics of recovering and processing nodules at commercial scale are unproven, and the whole thesis can move sharply on a single permitting, legal, or financing event.
The bear case deserves the same attention as the bull case, and usually gets less. If you are holding TMC already, the question is not whether these risks exist but whether any of them has moved from possible to actually happening in the reported numbers.
Where analysts land on TMC
6 analysts cover TMC, with an average target of $10.83 (+213.0% against $3.46) and a split of 6 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell. Bear in mind sell-side ratings skew positive across the whole market, so that split is not a balanced vote. The full target table, the recent rating actions by firm, and how the consensus has shifted are on the TMC forecast and price target page.
How is TMC valued? (as of Q1 2026 (quarter ended March 31, 2026); market cap as of late June 2026)
Snapshot for TMC as of July 2026, sourced from Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Valuation figures move with price and earnings; verify the current numbers with your broker before deciding.
- Revenue: $0 (pre-revenue; no product sales)
- Net loss (Q1 2026): ~$20.6 million, EPS ~$(0.05)
- Cash: ~$119.7 million at March 31, 2026, with no financial debt
- Market cap: ~$1.9 billion (late June 2026; varies widely with the share price)
- NORI-D declared probable reserves: ~51 million wet tonnes, grading ~1.4% nickel, ~0.13% cobalt, ~1.1% copper, ~31% manganese
- Broader resource: Company cites a resource into the low billions of tonnes across NORI and TOML, and its own studies cite combined NPV in the low tens of billions (company estimates)
Standard valuation ratios do not apply: TMC has no revenue and posts a loss every quarter, so there is no P/E, no profit margin, and no dividend to anchor a price. The market value is effectively an option on a future outcome, driven by permitting decisions, financing news, partner milestones, and metal-price expectations rather than current cash flows. All figures are approximate, tied to the dates above, and move quickly; verify against TMC's investor relations page or your broker before relying on them.
How do you decide if TMC is a buy?
Rather than asking whether TMC is a buy in the abstract, it tends to help to answer four questions:
- Thesis: do you believe the bull case above, and is it still true today?
- Time horizon: a single stock can be volatile, so a longer horizon absorbs more of the swings.
- Position sizing: a thesis can be right and the sizing still wrong; decide how much of your portfolio one name should be.
- Overlap: check whether you already hold TMC indirectly through an index or sector ETF before adding more.
What would change your mind on TMC
Write the tripwires down before you need them. Deciding what would falsify your view is far harder once a position is moving against you.
- Bull case breaks if: Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource stalls in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative around them.
- Bear case breaks if: the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining fails to materialise over several reporting periods while the drivers keep compounding.
- Neither matters if: the position has grown large enough that being wrong would damage the whole portfolio. Sizing overrides the argument.
For the full picture, see the TMC stock guide (what the company does, the ETFs that hold it, similar stocks, and the themes it fits). In Walnut you can ask its AI about TMC against your real portfolio and see your actual exposure before deciding.
Investing in TMC the metals company with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how TMC fits what you actually hold: whether you own it already through a fund, what it would do to your concentration, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
Is TMC a good stock to buy right now?
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That depends on which case you find more convincing, and both are on this page. The bull case rests on Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource, with revenue at $0 (pre-revenue; no product sales). The bear case rests on the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Analysts covering it are spread from $9.00 to $12.25, which is itself a signal that this is genuinely contested. If you believe the thesis, the real questions become sizing and overlap rather than timing. Walnut is not an investment adviser and this is not a recommendation.
Should I sell TMC?
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Nobody can answer that for you, and the honest version of the question is narrower: has anything changed in the reason you bought it? The bear case on this page is the place to check. The dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. If that risk is what you were worried about and it is now playing out, that is a real signal. If the price simply fell while the thesis held, that is a different situation entirely. The most pessimistic published target is $9.00, +160.1% from the $3.46 price, which is one analyst's downside case rather than a floor. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What is the bull case for TMC?
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Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource. TMC's pitch is the scale of its acreage. The most optimistic analyst target on TMC is $12.25, +254.0% from the $3.46 price. That figure is only reachable if this thesis works close to its best case.
What is the bear case for TMC?
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The dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining. Strong, organized environmental opposition argues that mining the Clarion-Clipperton Zone could cause lasting harm to poorly understood deep-sea ecosystems, which adds legal and reputational risk. The company is pre-revenue and burns cash each quarter, so it depends on continued financing and partner funding to reach production. The economics of recovering and processing nodules at commercial scale are unproven, and the whole thesis can move sharply on a single permitting, legal, or financing event. The most pessimistic published target is $9.00, +160.1% from the current price, which is roughly what the stock is worth if these risks bite rather than the drivers.
What does TMC the metals company do?
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TMC the metals company (TMC), headquartered in Vancouver, Canada and listed on Nasdaq, is a deep-sea mining developer focused on polymetallic nodules in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone
What would have to change for TMC to stop being worth holding?
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Decide that in advance, because it is far harder to think clearly once a position is moving against you. The concrete tripwires here: the driver behind the bull case (Large, undeveloped critical-metals resource) stalling in the reported numbers rather than in the narrative, the risk above (the dominant risk is regulatory and close to binary: TMC's plan depends on US permits that are contested internationally, with the ISA opening an inquiry into its subsidiaries and a coalition of dozens of nations backing a moratorium on deep-sea mining) turning from a possibility into a reported fact, or the position growing large enough that a bad outcome would matter to your whole portfolio regardless of who is right.
What does TMC the metals company do?
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TMC is a deep-sea mining developer. It is working to harvest polymetallic nodules, metal-rich rocks that sit on the Pacific seafloor in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone, which contain nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. Through subsidiaries NORI and TOML it holds exploration areas, and it partners with engineering and refining firms to move toward commercial recovery. It is pre-revenue and has not yet produced metals at scale.
Is TMC a good stock to buy right now?
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Descriptive, not a recommendation. The bull case is a very large critical-metals resource, a US permitting path that reached full compliance in 2026, and partners like Allseas and Korea Zinc. The bear case is that TMC is pre-revenue, burns cash, faces an international legal dispute and a moratorium coalition, and depends on unproven economics, making the outcome close to binary. Whether it fits depends on your goals and risk tolerance. Walnut is informational, not investment advice.
Is deep-sea mining legal?
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It is contested. TMC is pursuing US permits under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act through NOAA, which found its application in full compliance in 2026. But this path operates outside the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the UN-affiliated body many nations view as the proper regulator. The ISA opened an inquiry into TMC's subsidiaries, and a coalition of nations backs a moratorium, so the legal status remains disputed.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice, and gives no verdict on TMC. Analyst targets referenced here come from a July 2026 pull of published third-party research and change constantly. Verify current figures with your broker before acting on them.
Guides that feature TMC
TMC is one of the names covered in these guides. Each one puts the stock next to its peers so you can see where it fits rather than judging it alone.