VBR Forecast 2026: Price Target, Outlook and What Analysts Expect
Last updated October 2026
Short answer
Nobody publishes a price target for VBR itself. Its largest holdings do not carry enough analyst coverage in our data to build a weighted view, so the honest inputs are its yield, its cost and its history. It yields about 1.91% at today's price. Over the past year its price changed +15.0% (to 2026-10-16). Figures as of October 2026. Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What analysts expect for VBR's top holdings
Only 5 of VBR's listed top holdings carry enough analyst coverage in our data, about 3% of the fund, which is too little to call a weighted view of the whole fund.
| Holding | Weight | Avg target vs price | Analysts | Next-year EPS growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA Moderna Inc | 1.1% | -43.3% | 18 | - |
| JBL Jabil Inc | 0.7% | - | - | - |
| ATO Atmos Energy Corp | 0.6% | - | - | - |
| WSM Williams-Sonoma Inc | 0.6% | - | - | - |
| OMC Omnicom Group Inc | 0.5% | - | - | - |
| TPR Tapestry Inc | 0.5% | - | - | - |
| SW Smurfit WestRock PLC | 0.5% | +37.9% | 16 | +71% |
| EXE Expand Energy Corp | 0.5% | +31.1% | 28 | +4% |
| NRG NRG Energy Inc | 0.5% | +78.1% | 17 | +27% |
| USFD US Foods Holding Corp | 0.5% | +14.0% | 15 | +16% |
Weights are VBR's published top holdings as of October 2026. Targets and estimates are each company's sell-side consensus from Yahoo Finance as of October 2026; a dash means fewer than three analysts or no data. Each linked ticker opens that company's own forecast page.
Read this as the mood of the analysts who cover VBR's largest companies, not as a forecast for the fund. Sell-side targets skew optimistic across the whole market, they run about twelve months, and they tend to follow prices as often as lead them.
VBR income at today's yield
At a yield of about 1.91% as of October 2026, a $10,000 position in VBR would pay roughly $191 a year. That is the current run rate; actual distributions change with what the holdings pay. For the payout history and schedule, see VBR dividend: yield and schedule.
VBR past performance
- Year to date: +10.3% price change (to 2026-10-16).
- Past year: +15.0% price change.
- Three-year average: +17.0% a year.
- Five-year average: +8.1% a year.
- 52-week range: $198.76 to $251.85, against a last price of $236.48.
- Three-year beta: 0.94 (1.00 moves in line with the market; higher swings more).
History tells you how VBR has behaved, which is useful for sizing a position. It does not tell you what comes next, and periods of strong returns are often followed by weaker ones.
Is there a 2030 forecast for VBR?
No published one. Analysts do not forecast ETFs, and the targets on the companies inside a fund run about twelve months. Any 2030 figure for VBR is a past return projected forward.
What is certain is the cost. At 0.05% a year, about $5 on every $10,000 every year, it comes off whatever the holdings earn, in good years and bad. Across funds that track similar things, that is one of the few differences you can know in advance.
What could move VBR from here
VBR's three largest holdings, Moderna Inc, Jabil Inc, Atmos Energy Corp, make up about 2% of the fund, so news about them moves it most. Beyond those names, it behaves like Morningstar US small-cap value index (replaced the CRSP U.S. Small Cap Value Index in 2026): broad market direction, interest rates and earnings growth across its holdings decide the result.
The case for and against owning it, including concentration and overlap with funds you may already hold, is on is VBR a good investment?
What would change the outlook for VBR
For a stock fund, two things move the long-run result: whether the companies it holds grow their earnings as analysts expect, and how much investors are willing to pay for those earnings. The first is what the estimates on this page describe. The second shifts with interest rates and sentiment and can swamp the first over a year or two. A cut to the earnings outlook for VBR's largest holdings, or a rise in long-term rates that makes future profits worth less today, are the two developments most likely to pull the fund below what the targets imply.
How to read this page: the analyst figures describe expectations for the holdings, not for the fund; the yield describes current income, not total return; the history describes one path through the market, not the next one. The cost is the only line that is known in advance.
More on VBR
- What is VBR? (holdings, cost, and the themes it covers)
- Is VBR a good investment?
- VBR dividend: yield and schedule
Investing in VBR with AI
Connect the broker you already use and ask Walnut's AI how VBR fits what you actually hold: what it overlaps with, what it leaves you exposed to, and how it has tracked the S&P 500. Read-only by default, and you approve anything before it reaches your broker.
FAQ
What is the VBR forecast for 2026?
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Nobody publishes a price target for VBR itself. Its largest holdings do not carry enough analyst coverage in our data to build a weighted view, so the honest inputs are its yield, its cost and its history. It yields about 1.91% at today's price. Over the past year its price changed +15.0% (to 2026-10-16). Walnut is not an investment adviser.
What is the price target for VBR?
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Analysts do not publish price targets on ETFs. For a stock fund like VBR, the figures that carry information are its yield, its cost and what drives the underlying, all set out on this page.
How much income does VBR pay?
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At a yield of about 1.91% as of October 2026, VBR would pay roughly $191 a year on a $10,000 position. Distributions change with the holdings' payouts, so treat that as today's run rate, not a promise. Full payout history is on the VBR dividend page.
What has VBR returned?
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Over three years VBR averaged about +17.0% a year, and over five years about +8.1% a year, according to Yahoo Finance as of October 2026. Past returns describe the market that happened, not the one ahead, and are the weakest guide on this page.
What is the VBR price prediction for 2030?
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There is no published one, and any site showing a figure has extrapolated a past return. What is knowable about 2030 is the cost: at 0.05% a year, about $5 a year on $10,000, that comes off whatever the holdings return.
Walnut is informational, not investment advice, and does not publish price targets of its own. Holding weights are approximate as of October 2026; analyst targets, estimates and fund statistics come from a October 2026 pull of Yahoo Finance and change constantly. Verify current figures with Vanguard or your broker.